DALLAS — The speculation over Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) and whether he will make another run for House GOP leader kicked into overdrive as Republicans gathered for their midterm convention in Texas.
Jordan, the firebrand chairman of the judiciary committee, says he hasn’t “even thought” about next year and whether there might be a leadership shakeup if Republicans lose their narrow House majority.
“We’re going to hold it,” he said in an interview. “We’re gonna stay focused on winning, which is what we have to do, which is what, I believe, is best for America.”
But Jordan hasn’t exactly hidden his desire to ascend to the top of House leadership. He’s run for speaker twice, most recently in 2023, and raised fresh questions about his political future when he revealed on Wednesday that he would not seek the top GOP spots on Judiciary and another investigative committee he previously led.
The conventional wisdom is that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) would continue as speaker for a third term if Republicans overperform on Election Day. Right now, they have a two-seat majority and are banking on redistricting to help them overcome President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings and the usual headwinds that face the party in power.
But if polls are correct and their House majority is wiped out, Johnson could step away and be replaced, either by one of his deputies or Jordan, a one-time House rabble-rouser who has more recently courted the centrist wing of his party.
Johnson has declined to say whether he’d run for minority leader next year, but told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday that it will be Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) who continues to hold that title.
“We are going to hold the majority,” Johnson said on the sidelines of the convention. “We’re going to defy history.”
Republicans need only look back three years to see who might run in a contested leadership election. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MO), and Jordan each struggled to lock down the votes needed to replace ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy before Johnson, then a junior member of leadership, emerged as a unity candidate.
Since then, each has barnstormed the country on behalf of incumbents and GOP hopefuls alike. Jordan, in particular, has raised eyebrows with his political evolution and interest in fundraising for the National Republican Congressional Committee, something he once refused to do.
As a founding member of the conservative Freedom Caucus, he was once dubbed a “legislative arsonist” by Speaker John Boehner, but has increasingly acted as a conduit between House leadership and GOP rebels. He’s also softened his stance on policy priorities, including FISA, the lapsed spy program that allows foreign warrantless surveillance.
At the convention, Republicans were reluctant to open the door to conversations about a leadership shakeup that would only come to pass if they suffer defeat this fall.
“It’s not a time to talk about what we’re going to do after the election,” said Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), the chairman of the NRCC. “We got to stay focused on the election.”
Jordan also avoided giving a direct answer on whether he’d run again, telling the Washington Examiner only that he is “totally focused” on helping House Republicans win in November. Before his 2023 bid, Jordan unsuccessfully ran for minority leader following the retirement of Speaker Paul Ryan in 2018.
Those who know Jordan best say he won’t be shrinking away from the spotlight next year.
“He will never be a back bencher,” Sen. Jim Banks (R-IN), one of the first Republicans to endorse his last leadership bid, told the Washington Examiner.
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, the Florida Republican who set McCarthy’s ouster in motion, said that Jordan stepping back from his leadership role on the Judiciary Committee was a sign that he “has his eyes on a bigger prize.”
“Running for leader typically isn’t an itch that goes away with one scratch,” Gaetz said.
The same dynamic that blocked Jordan’s path to the speaker’s gavel in 2023 — more than two dozen establishment-minded Republicans opposed him before he withdrew from consideration — could again get in the way of his leadership hopes.
One factor working in his favor, however, is the lower vote threshold needed to become minority leader.
Speakers are elected by the entire membership of the House and must earn the support of virtually everyone within their conference. The opposition party leader, by contrast, just needs a simple majority of their members to vote “yes.”
Jordan is also regarded as better suited to leading Republicans in the minority, given his partisan reputation, and he would face less scrutiny about whether he can be a consensus builder. Through his roles on the judiciary and oversight committees, he’s led years of investigations into Democrats, including the impeachment inquiry into former President Joe Biden.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a retiring Republican who opposed Jordan’s speakership run, said his conference should “get behind” whichever candidate earns a majority of the vote. Bacon said that his opposition in 2023 was based on loyalty to McCarthy and the unceremonious way he was deposed by Gaetz and a handful of allies.
“We have a process and people should respect it,” Bacon said. “A small group should not be able to bully 223 members, and that’s what we had. We had to beat them at their own game and teach them a lesson. The squishes got a backbone.”
If Democrats do take the majority, it may be Jeffries who faces similar resistance, this time from those on the Left who want guarantees he will govern as a progressive Democrat.
Jeffries most recently upset his left flank when he met with Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law, to discuss areas of possible common ground.
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“I don’t think any speaker is ever a shoo-in, and I don’t think Leader Jeffries even views it that way,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO), one of the House Democrats who traveled to Texas to counterprogram the convention. “Like, nobody takes anything for granted, right?”
Crow added that “nobody is entitled to anything,” but praised Jeffries as a minority leader who took his job “seriously every single day.”
Naomi Lim contributed to this report.