Republicans are taking a calculated risk with their first-ever midterm convention that embracing President Donald Trump and nationalizing competitive races across the country will help them defy history in November.
It is the exact opposite of the strategy usually employed by an embattled majority party and its most vulnerable incumbents, who often wish to distinguish themselves from the national brand.
The GOP gathering in Dallas will take place amid grim political conditions and with Trump’s job approval rating sitting below 40%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
But for the past decade, Republicans have struggled to turn out Trump voters when he isn’t on the ballot. The conservative base has in recent months grown frustrated with the GOP Congress’s legislative pace. And the electoral coalition Trump has built has a lower propensity to vote in non-presidential election years while anti-Trump voters turn out reliably for all kinds of races.
The midterm convention is seen as an opportunity to rally Trump voters who might otherwise stay home. It’s also a chance to make the affirmative case for what both the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress have done and plan to do for the next two years.
Republicans believe they have a story to tell despite staggering fuel costs, economic pessimism, and a trade war with Canada that disproportionately affects battleground states. They point to the latest hot jobs report, employment opportunities for the working class, and recent progress getting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
“My elevator pitch is actually very simple,” Vice President JD Vance told reporters at the White House last week. “Do you want to live in a country that has safety and security and prosperity? If the answer is yes, and I think most Americans do, then vote for congressional Republicans over congressional Democrats on every single issue. The Democrats have taken the side of fraudsters, of criminals, and of far-left interest groups over the side of the American people.”
Democrats are already certain to use Trump as a cudgel with which to beat Republicans in the midterm elections. Some GOP operatives believe they might as well try to reap the benefits associated with Trump too.
The convention is still a big gamble. The party in power has lost congressional seats in all but two midterm elections since 1938, with Republicans surrendering more than 40 House seats and the speaker’s gavel midway through Trump’s first term in 2018.
Presidential job approval ratings are often a factor in how the party that holds the White House does in the midterm elections. Only 39.7% approve of the job Trump is currently doing overall, and he receives lower marks on the economy, Iran, and inflation — three of the biggest issues in this year’s election.
A recent NBC News-Decision Desk poll showed Trump with a 64% disapproval rating compared to 36% who approved of his performance in office. A Reuters-Ipsos poll late last month found that 72% of registered voters disapproved of the job he was doing on inflation while just 24% approved.
The president has tended to dismiss negative polls, and the polling industry has experienced its share of problems both this year and throughout the Trump era. But the pollsters still often get it right, and these numbers are supported by hard data, such as the results of last year’s elections and various down-ballot races throughout the country during Trump’s second term.
It’s also possible that the low-propensity voters who proved decisive for Trump in 2024 are particularly turned off by the war in Iran and his perceived inattention to domestic issues such as affordability.
Historically, candidates in tough races have been encouraged to run away from their party’s low-polling president and emphasize local issues instead. Many down-ballot Republicans are doing just that. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is among the Republicans in tough races who is skipping the midterm convention.
But former Rep. Mike Rogers, the GOP nominee in Michigan’s tight Senate race, is scheduled to be there. He barely lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in 2024 as Trump was carrying the state. Rogers’s opponent this time around, progressive Abdul el Sayed, is the type of left-wing candidate Republicans hope will tarnish the Democratic Party nationally.
There are other ways for an unpopular incumbent to handle the midterm elections. In 2022, then-President Joe Biden largely avoided appearances with embattled Democrats and relied on the national media to amplify his midterm messaging as he campaigned in safe blue areas. Republicans won the House that year, but Democratic losses were less than expected and Biden’s party actually gained a seat in the Senate.
THUNE SKIPS MIDTERM CONVENTION SPEECH AS GOP LEADERS GATHER FOR ELECTION PUSH
Democrats would live to regret this outcome, as it emboldened the octogenarian Biden to seek a second term he ultimately didn’t seem mentally or physically up for in 2024. Trump won’t have that option in 2028, and soon after the midterm elections, attention will shift to the presidential contest.
But not before Trump has the opportunity to either be the savior, or the undoing, of the narrow Republican congressional majorities on the ballot this fall.