Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of Washington Secrets. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, CLICK HERE. We fly to Dallas today for the Republican midterm convention, unlike Marco Rubio, who has urgent business elsewhere. We dig into why he won’t be challenging for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, plus we have exclusive news of another investigation into the nation’s creaking organ donation system.
Vice President JD Vance is everything, everywhere, all at once, lending a hand to midterm candidates around the country, headlining MAGA Inc., fundraising dinners, and taking questions in the White House briefing room.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has been a repeat visitor to the early caucus state of Iowa, he hosts a podcast and syndicated radio show, and he has positioned himself as a different kind of Republican from Donald Trump and Vance.
And what is Marco Rubio doing to lay the groundwork for a potential 2028 presidential run? Almost nothing.
So while Cruz and Vance will both be appearing at the midterm convention that begins Wednesday in Dallas, Rubio has found urgent business elsewhere. He leaves today on a swing through Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.
The message is clear. The Secretary of State is focused on the job of reimagining Latin America and being a loyal lieutenant to the president.
That could yet be the foundation for a campaign platform, or it could be the sign of a man who is content to let Vance inherit the Republican torch.
Now, Secrets may have some insight into Rubio’s thinking about the nature of presidential power. He may think the 2028 election is unwinnable for Republicans.
“That has nothing to do with Trump or polls or popularity now. It is all a cyclical thing,” said a former Rubio aide.
He told Secrets that during the 2016 campaign, Rubio would talk about how the moment was right to take back the White House from Democrats who had been in power since 2008.
“The thing is that the White House has only stayed in one party’s hands, from one president to a different one, once since the Second World War,” they said. “That is at the heart of his thinking.”
Ronald Reagan’s transfer to George H.W. Bush was the exception rather than the rule, runs the theory. And the next election may see the pendulum simply swing back.
Rubio repeatedly told insiders that 2016, when Barack Obama was coming to the end of his second term, was the perfect time to run, setting up Republicans for their own two-term presidency.
So while Rubio has made clear he will not challenge Vance if the VP runs, that may be as much about winnability as it is fraternal support for a friend and colleague.
And although Cruz and Vance are on party duty this week with primetime speeches (in what will be something of a showcase for future party leaders), Rubio will be away on Secretary of State business.
At the age of 55, he may figure that he can sit this one out and still be in his early 60s by the next time an open nomination race comes up.
Prediction markets reflect the different approaches. Rubio challenged Vance as the favorite for the 2028 nomination through the first half of the year, closing to within a couple of points in June, but he has fallen away since as he has distanced himself from presidential ambitions.
Today, Vance is running as the 45% leader, with Rubio some 24 points behind. And Rubio won’t care one jot.
You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions.
White House fraud task force takes on organ donor groups
Last week, Secrets revealed that the Department of Justice was investigating organ procurement organizations serving more than 10 million people in California, Tennessee, and New Mexico. These are nonprofit groups that coordinate the recovery of organs and tissues from deceased donors for life-saving transplants.
Congressional investigations have exposed a string of problems, from potential donors waking up during procedures to extract organs, misuse of private jets, and Medicare fraud around the country.
Now, Secrets can reveal that the White House fraud task force, which is led by Vance, is poised to announce its own investigation into these OPOs and their activities.
A source told Secrets: “The task force has been investigating this issue for a few months now.”
This follows on from the recent decision by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Health and Human Services Department to decertify the group serving Kentucky and parts of Ohio because of a string of problems.
This whole sector is now under intense scrutiny. Stay tuned.
READ MORE: THE ROT IN OUR ORGAN TRANSPLANT SYSTEM GOES DEEPER THAN DONORS WAKING UP
Quote of the day
It is the trial that has transfixed the nation. And now the president has a chance to weigh in.
Lindsay Clancy’s lawyer used a TV appearance this morning to make an appeal directly to Trump.
“Mr. President, I would hope that you would consider this young lady — the type of person she is and what she’s been through — and consider a pardon,” Kevin Reddington told Good Morning America, days after a judge ordered a mistrial in her case.
It’s a long shot. The president has previously said Clancy would have to “pay the price” for killing her children, Cora, 5, Dawson, 3, and Callan, 8 months.
Lunchtime reading
‘Inside the George W. Bush White House’ Review – Teammates and Rivals: Insider account of a much “misunderestimated” presidency, according to this new oral history.
The case for why Democrats will win the midterms. And the case for Republicans too: Sound smart at the watercooler by picking up arguments and counterarguments. For every “Trump is unpopular,” there is a but: The “Democrats’ brand is weak.”