This story is part of a series of monthly snapshots from the Washington Examiner, titled Midterm Countdown, gauging the state of the 2026 election cycle. Scroll down to the bottom of the story for the latest prediction market odds of who is going to win.
The GOP is in final preparations for the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas to bolster support among its base.
The Trumpalooza-themed event kicks off the post-Labor Day sprint to November. But many congressional lawmakers are skipping the convention to campaign in their districts, and many grassroots supporters claim the event is too pricey to justify attending.
Democrats are counting on voter disaffection over high gas prices and President Donald Trump’s sinking poll numbers to help them flip the House and possibly the Senate.
But they’ve also been plagued by far-left activists who are distracting their affordability message.
Plus, ongoing redistricting battles in Missouri and a legal tussle over Trump’s mail-in voting executive order are still in flux as voters in North Carolina begin receiving absentee ballots.
Republicans find their boogeymen
For years, Republicans had a recurring star in their TV ads and campaign messaging: Nancy Pelosi. The former Democratic speaker was the longtime villain, a mainstay in ads as Republicans linked Democratic candidates to her to paint them as radical and out of touch.
She was so toxic, in some areas, that many battleground candidates specifically campaigned on the promise they would not vote for Pelosi as speaker. In 2019, as Pelosi’s unpopularity roared, 15 Democrats refused to vote for her on the House floor. Many of them had just been elected in battleground districts — such as Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill, and Elissa Slotkin, all of whom would later seek higher office.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is not unpopular enough — or well known enough — to be the next boogeyman. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) have appeared in some ads over the last few cycles.
But neither are as inflammatory as Hasan Piker, the socialist Twitch streamer who has become a staple in Republican midterm messaging over the past month. Piker, who has been criticized for his vehemently anti-Israel posture, is an outspoken supporter of Abdul el Sayed, the Democratic nominee in Michigan’s Senate race.
Piker’s past controversial comments, including saying that “America deserved 9/11,” have given Republicans ammunition with which to damage Democrats. He’s also become a central part of their contrast message.
Vice President JD Vance took aim at el Sayed and Piker during a recent campaign swing through Michigan.
“My message to Abdul el Sayed is: You can pal around with terrorist sympathizers, and you can say that America deserved 9/11, or you could empathize, not with the children who were targeted at Temple Israel, but with the attacker,” he said. “These are all despicable things, but they’re all things that the people of Michigan will judge you on based on your record.”
A Republican strategist also said they anticipate making regional villains so that their messages resonate.
In New York, for example, socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani figures to take a lead role in negative advertising.
The National Republican Campaign Committee said Democrats “own every radical position” taken by the polarizing figures.
“Vulnerable House Democrats have tied themselves to the most unhinged socialists in their party, from Zohran Mamdani to Hasan Piker,” NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella told the Washington Examiner in a statement. “Now they own every radical position, every insane statement, and every socialist policy that comes with them, and we’re going to hang that record around their necks like an anvil all the way to Election Day.”
Missouri madness notches Democrats a surprise win
Democrats scored an unexpected win the first week of September after Missouri’s state Supreme Court unanimously blocked the GOP’s new congressional map.
The ruling requires Missouri to use its previous map for the November elections, effectively restoring Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-MO) Kansas City-based 5th Congressional District.
At the center of the case was an effort by opponents of the new map to put it before voters through Missouri’s referendum process. Under the state constitution, voters can petition to approve or reject laws passed by the legislature. Opponents gathered enough signatures to force a referendum on the new congressional map, which meant the map could not take effect unless and until voters approved it.
But Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins rejected the referendum, arguing that congressional redistricting legislation was not subject to the state’s referendum process. The Missouri Supreme Court — dominated by Republican appointees — ruled the secretary of state erred in making the decision.
As a result, the court put the new map on hold until voters can approve it in November. Even if it passes, the new map will not take effect until 2028.
Republicans already hold six out of the eight districts in Missouri. The new map was set to give the party a seventh district.
The ruling creates an unusual situation for November. Missouri held its August congressional primaries using the new districts, but voters will cast their general election ballots under the old lines.
Missouri Republicans said they will appeal the decision to the Supreme Court, though the case centers heavily on the Missouri Supreme Court’s interpretation of the state constitution.
Trump sends Cabinet officials across the country
Trump is leaning on members of his Cabinet to help carry his message beyond Washington as Republicans enter the final stretch before the midterm elections.
The travel is part of a broader effort to energize voters and defend Republicans’ narrow congressional majorities amid concerns about the economy and the Iran war. Sending administration officials into key states also gives GOP candidates prominent surrogates who can promote specific pieces of Trump’s agenda to local voters.
War Secretary Pete Hegseth has become one of the administration’s most active political messengers. He campaigned for Kentucky Republican Ed Gallrein, who defeated Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), and appeared at the Iowa State Fair for a veteran-focused fundraiser with Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA), Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), and GOP Senate candidate Ashley Hinson. Nunn and Miller-Meeks are fighting to keep their House seats, while Hinson is running in a competitive race for an open Senate seat.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy was in Michigan on Monday alongside Vance and Federal Trade Commission Chairman Andrew Ferguson for a MAGA Inc. event. Also in attendance were Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers and other GOP candidates for Congress and statewide office.
The travel has not always allowed Cabinet officials to stick to the administration’s preferred message. Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited New Hampshire last week to promote the administration’s push for additional natural gas pipelines but faced questions about gasoline prices that have climbed to roughly $4 a gallon.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins ran into another politically sensitive issue during a swing through Iowa. While seeking to shore up support among farmers, Rollins was forced to address Trump’s move to allow foreign beef imports, a decision that has drawn criticism from cattle ranchers.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. traveled to Tampa with Sen. Ashley Moody (R-FL) to roll out a new school nutrition initiative. Kennedy remains a valuable messenger to the “Make America Healthy Again” voters who helped expand Trump’s coalition, even as some activists have grown frustrated with administration decisions, including its approach to glyphosate.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, is headed to North Carolina to speak before the Charlotte Economics Club. Bessent has become a go-to administration voice on economic policy at a time when Republicans are looking to reassure voters about the economy while also confronting criticism surrounding the costs of the Iran war.
One notable administration figure has been largely absent from the political circuit. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, widely viewed as a possible 2028 presidential contender, has mostly stayed away from campaign events even as many of his Cabinet colleagues have taken increasingly visible roles in the midterm push.
The barnstorming also gives Republicans an opportunity to put other faces on Trump’s agenda at a moment when the president’s own standing with voters could weigh on the party in November. Some administration officials may be better positioned to reach constituencies where Trump has lost ground, allowing Republicans to campaign on his policies without making every midterm contest a referendum on the president himself.
Red state Democrats are good on Kamala Harris
Democrats running key red state races have a clear message for former Vice President Kamala Harris: stay away.
A growing number of Democrats have preemptively rejected an endorsement from Harris this cycle.
Campaign spokespersons for Rob Sand, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Iowa, and Iowa Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek told the Washington Examiner they don’t want an endorsement from Harris or for her to appear on the campaign trail with them.
Throughout Trump’s three presidential campaigns, Iowa has tracked Republican after it voted for former President Barack Obama in 2008.
But Democrats see an opening to flip the governor’s mansion and retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-IA) seat blue as the GOP struggles to counter their affordability message.
The Cook Political Report ranked the Iowa gubernatorial race and the Senate race as toss-ups.
Alaska Democrat Mary Peltola also rejected a Harris fundraising email sent on her behalf. “Mary isn’t seeking endorsements from anyone from the Lower 48 — her focus is and always will be Alaska,” a Peltola spokesperson told a local news outlet.
Harris dismissed the rejections as part of the election race in an interview with MS Now.
“We need to win,” Harris said. “I have run locally, I’ve run for statewide office and obviously nationally, and these candidates know what they need to do to win, and I would expect nothing less.”
But not all Democrats are shunning Harris.
San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert is running for California’s 48th Congressional District. She said that Harris will come to her district.
Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford is expected to host Harris for a canvass lunch in Las Vegas as he seeks the governor’s mansion.
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) also hosted the former vice president for a private “Women for Ossoff” call. And Harris recently endorsed Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) in his Senate race in New Hampshire.
Harris remains a 2028 Democratic front-runner according to most polls, meaning Democrats won’t be able to continue to shun her if she launches a third presidential bid.
The next big campaign issue
August saw data centers emerge — and then explode — as a campaign issue. Anti-data center sentiment nearly propelled socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong to victory in the Wisconsin gubernatorial Democratic primary, but a stunning consolidation effort around David Crowley, who is pro-data center, helped the moderate Democrat over the finish line in early August.
President Donald Trump has championed data center construction but has sent candidates mixed messages on how to talk about them.
He told reporters before a campaign stop in South Carolina last month that he was fine if Republicans disagreed with him on data centers. The president has said he supports building them and they bring “tremendous income” for communities.
‘If a Republican is against the data center, that’s OK with me,” said Trump, offering a softer stance if Republicans disagree with him.
He then took an aggressive position on social media earlier this week, writing that the “only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor.”
“If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign,” he wrote. “The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them. If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame.”
The issue has become a concern for Republicans. The National Republican Senatorial Committee in August released a memo arguing that voters are sour on data centers and that they risk becoming a liability for Republicans in competitive races, particularly Sen. Jon Husted’s (R-OH) reelection campaign.
“More than any other thing in this race, data centers are the anchor hanging around Husted’s neck. If he loses and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one,” the memo wrote of Husted’s race.
The memo said the “companies that need these projects built” must fix this problem, effectively asking the corporations to invest in changing voter sentiment.
So far, Republicans have had a mixed response, with candidates adopting platforms best reflecting the sentiment of their communities, but the issue is almost certain to dominate between now and the November election.
What the prediction markets say
Prediction markets are increasingly viewed as a real-time gauge of political sentiment. Unlike traditional polling, they aggregate real-money bets on political outcomes, often capturing shifts in sentiment quicker than surveys.
MELANIA TRUMP HAS NO PLANS TO ATTEND RNC’S MIDTERM CONVENTION
At this stage in the 2026 cycle, Kalshi gives Democrats an 85% chance of retaking the House, while Republicans have a 53% chance of keeping control of the Senate.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is slightly more bullish on Democrats, giving the party an 89% chance of retaking the House and a 52% chance of winning the Senate.