There have always been two ways to look at the midterm elections: the national environment heavily favors Democrats, but the congressional map gives Republicans a glimmer of hope to hold their majorities or at least avoid getting hammered by a historic blue wave.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) often points to the 21 seats in his chamber rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report when talking up Republican chances, but this week the proprietor of that newsletter sounded a distinctly skeptical note.
“It appears to me that the president has now reached a critical mass of problems that are threatening to take this election to a place that the 2026 map and the small number of competitive districts and Senate seats should not allow it to go,” Charlie Cook wrote with a little more than 60 days to go before the elections. “I confess this is a lot bigger than I expected, but here we are.”
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating remains below 40% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with even worse numbers on specific issues such as the economy, Iran, and inflation.
Democrats lead by 5.7 points in the same average of polls on the generic congressional ballot, which measures which party voters prefer to control Congress. While the latest Harvard-Harris poll has Republicans up 2, every other poll included has Democrats leading by anywhere from 5 to 11 points.
This is less than the final RealClearPolitics average before the 2018 midterm elections during Trump’s first term (Democrats +7.3) or the actual House popular vote result that November (Democrats +8.4), which was good enough for a blue wave in which Democrats gained more than 40 House seats and the majority.
That year, Republicans were defending 25 House seats in districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Today they are trying to hold eight districts carried by former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, while Democrats hold 23 seats in districts won by Trump.
But the existing Republican majority is also smaller. After Rep. Aisha Wahab (D-CA) was sworn in on Wednesday, the House GOP controlled exactly 218 seats, though the sole independent also technically caucuses with Republicans. (He is currently seeking a rules change so he doesn’t have to.) No blue wave is necessary to flip the House.
The Senate is a different story. Assuming they hold their own seats, Democrats need to win at least four out of five races in states Trump carried in 2024, some by double digits, to capture the majority. That seems like a tall order, but they are competitive in all these contests.
Democrats have been favored in the North Carolina Senate race since Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced his retirement and former Gov. Roy Cooper declared as the Democratic candidate. Georgia was once seen as the Republicans’ pickup opportunity, but now Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is up by 7.5 points and taking 50.7% overall in the RealClearPolitics average. Democrats are leading by much smaller margins in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas while Republicans enjoy a slim lead in Iowa. That sounds like a blue wave in the making.
On the other hand, Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini has documented how summer polls often look better for Democrats in key Senate races, so it is conceivable the redder states revert to their roots by November. Democrats also haven’t nailed down their own seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, or Minnesota. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) remains competitive in her reelection bid after Democrats swapped out Senate nominees, and she significantly outperformed her poll numbers six years ago.
The Senate resisted the last blue wave in 2018, with Republicans actually gaining two seats. Democrats had a net gain of one seat in 2022 as Republicans won the House. Democrats will need a wave rather than a ripple to seize the Senate this November.
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But if Democrats can win this many Senate races in unfavorable territory, it would raise questions about how many House seats are truly in play. Maybe the national climate is bad enough for Republicans that districts that would not normally be competitive suddenly are.
Republicans are focused on mid-decade redistricting, cash spending, and turning out Trump voters in order to defy history as the party in power during the midterm elections.