Welcome to Wednesday’s edition of Washington Secrets. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, CLICK HERE. With the world getting excited about next week’s midterm convention in Dallas, we have a reminder that wars are won and lost with local skirmishes. Plus, Nigel Farage is making a trip to Washington, and Scott Jennings is planning for life outside the White House briefing room …
Republicans are in danger of losing the next round of redistricting battles by failing to invest in down-ballot state legislative races, according to the Republican State Leadership Committee.
“Battle Beneath the Ballot,” a finance memo shared with Secrets, reports that Democrats’ four largest groups involved in state legislative elections will outspend the RSLC’s commitment of more than $50 million by almost three-to-one. Republicans have a huge fundraising lead nationally, with the likes of MAGA Inc., the Trump-aligned super PAC, holding a $400 million war chest. But all the signs are that it will be spent on congressional and gubernatorial races, rather than less glamorous down-ballot fights.
“This flood of national liberal dollars into state legislative races should concern everyone who does not want to see a permanent Democratic House majority,” it says.
The warning comes as Republicans plan for next week’s midterm convention in Dallas, Texas. It is being billed as a “Trumpapalooza” and a chance for the president to energize the base in an effort to hold on to the House of Representatives and shore up the Senate.
The RSLC says constant redistricting by state legislators changes the game for donors who invest in the House. They have a chance to more efficiently spend their money at a state level now to ensure the best possible House battlefield in 2028.
And then there is the 2030 census, when all 50 states will redraw their districts.
“If we are serious about preventing a permanent Democratic House majority, we must recognize that the fight for Congress begins in state legislative districts, not in congressional campaigns,” the memo says, explaining that a tiny handful of seats will have profound implications in crucial districts.
Yet Republican spending trails Democratic spending.
This year four major Democratic organizations have publicly announced significant spending plans: the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee at $50 million, Forward Majority at $30 million, LCV Victory Fund at more than $50 million, and the National Democratic Redistricting Committee at $4 million. In all, they are committed to spending more than $134 million.
Against that backdrop, Republican victories in no more than a dozen seats could have profound implications for House districts in four key battlegrounds, according to the RSLC.
Michigan: Republicans have a strong opportunity to reclaim the state Senate, where Democrats hold a narrow 20-18 majority, while defending the state House. Senate Districts 12 and 35 are likely to determine control of the chamber. Control of the Senate will play a significant role in future redistricting decisions.
Minnesota: The House is tied 67-67, so a single seat will determine control of the majority. House Districts 3B and 41A are critical to Republican efforts to win the House while also competing for the state Senate. Recent fraud scandals involving multiple state-administered programs have increased scrutiny of Democratic leadership. Gov. Tim Walz‘s (D-MN) decision not to seek reelection has further reshaped the political environment. Small shifts in voter sentiment could determine legislative control and influence future congressional redistricting.
Pennsylvania: Democrats hold a 103-100 majority in the state House. Republican victories in House Districts 137 and 142 would be key to reclaiming the chamber while maintaining the party’s Senate majority. Pennsylvania illustrates how a small number of competitive legislative races can determine control ahead of the next redistricting cycle.
Wisconsin: Republicans are defending key Assembly seats needed to maintain their legislative majorities. Assembly Districts 61 and 88 are among the most consequential battlegrounds. These races are central to preserving legislative control in one of the nation’s most closely contested swing states.
As many as 12 House seats could be affected. Isn’t that worth fighting for?
You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions.
Nigel Farage’s flying visit
Nigel Farage, Britain’s Mr. Brexit, is in Washington next week. He is coming to celebrate the first birthday of GB News‘s U.S. operation. If his day job is now being a Member of Parliament and leader of Reform UK, his second job is hosting a show on the right-wing channel. It runs three days a week … or as often as the parliamentary schedule allows.
Secrets can reveal that GB News is taking over Cafe Milano, haunt of the rich and powerful, for its event on Tuesday. And we can’t help but notice that the Republican Party’s midterm convention is due to start the following day in Dallas.
It is exactly the sort of event where Farage would once have been in his element, firing up the delegates ahead of a Trump or Vance appearance, and posing for photos with his legions of American fans. Sadly, those days are gone.
He told Secrets that he simply couldn’t stay away from Parliament that long.
“I’d love to do it, but I just have to choose what my main priorities are, and it’s got to be the U.K., not America, and that’s the way it is,” he said.
Even a flying visit is likely to rile his opponents (of which there are many), who accuse him of not spending enough time doing the mundane work of a constituency MP.
On Tuesday, after being sworn in again, Farage told a GB News colleague that he planned to leave more of the parliamentary duties to his deputy leader while he would represent the party around the country.
“So I’ll be here doing my stuff, but really, you know, it’ll be Richard Tice and the rest of the gang doing more of the work in here as I travel around the country,’ he said. “And in fact, I’m even planning another tour of the country.”
He didn’t mention the trip to Washington.
Breakfast with Scott Jennings
It’s 10 days since everyone (except Secrets) agreed that Scott Jennings, CNN’s favorite Republican, was a shoo-in to replace Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary. The Washington groupthink had given its verdict, and “friends” of Jennings were saying things like, “The job is his if he wants it … and he wants it.”
So Secrets regrets to report that it is on to Plan B for Jennings. An invitation reaches us advertising breakfast with the man himself at the Capitol Hill Club.
Tickets cost $75 and include a copy of his book A Revolution of Common Sense.
The date is Oct. 7, suggesting he has little expectation of being in the White House briefing room any time soon.
As we’ve said all along, don’t expect Trump to find his new “machine gun lips” any time soon. If ever.
Lunchtime reading
The conservative radio hosts dominating the airwaves: Fun read on how Clay Travis and Buck Sexton filled Rush Limbaugh’s slot without joining the “manosphere.”
Mamma mia! How a panic over pasta prices prompted a Trump tariff retreat: Italian manufacturers had been underpricing exports to the U.S. in breach of regulations. But when Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick realized that enforcing the rules would drive up prices, he stepped in.