Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) was all but anointed to be New Hampshire’s Democratic Senate nominee after locking up major endorsements and clearing the field of potential challengers.
But the national insurgency of socialists achieving shocking triumphs over establishment-backed front-runners could now be coming for the Granite State, where socialist Karishma Manzur has closed a 50-point deficit against Pappas to just 13 points.
It’s a scenario that has the makings of the Florida Senate primary. Socialist state Rep. Angie Nixon shocked Democrats last week when she bested establishment-backed former Trump whistleblower Alex Vindman by an eye-popping 12 points, even after consistently trailing in the polls and being outraised 16 to 1.
In the latest survey from the University of New Hampshire, Manzur garnered 34% to Pappas’s 47%. Pappas, a four-term congressman, had raised nearly $13.4 million through the end of June compared to Manzur’s less than $207,000. In a general election matchup, GOP front-runner John E. Sununu led Pappas 45%-43%.
Manzur’s continued gains ahead of the Sept. 8 primary are “fueled by strong support from socialist and younger voters,” according to the poll’s authors.
The Manzur campaign said her “surge reflects growing grassroots support across New Hampshire for her message of honesty, peace, democracy, and prosperity for all people, and her call to end war profiteering.”
“I am fighting to deliver livable wages, affordable housing, and Medicare for All,” Manzur said in a statement.
The Pappas campaign declined to comment.
In a social media video promoting her polling climb, the scientist and progressive activist said she is running a “true grassroots campaign” that has done no ads or mailers “because we can’t afford it.”
Manzur is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and has focused her campaign on economic inequality, universal healthcare, and ending what she calls a “genocide” in Gaza that she accuses Democrats such as Pappas and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) of enabling. But she has distanced herself from some of the group’s platform, including a call to abolish the very chamber she is seeking to serve in.
“I cannot answer for other people,” Manzur said in a recent C-Span interview when asked about abolishing the Senate. “Why should I respond to somebody who happens to be a member of the DSA? I’m a member of the Democratic Party. I don’t have to be burdened with answering or excusing questions asked by other people in the Democratic Party. Similarly, there’s a huge disparity between myself and maybe members of the DSA.”
The seat is a must-win for Democrats to hold if they are to flip the chamber that Republicans control 53-47. In the Republican primary, establishment-backed Sununu, who served as senator from 2003 to 2009, is the Trump-endorsed front-runner over Scott Brown, a former Trump ambassador and senator from Massachusetts.
The Democratic primary has become the type of contest Republicans would otherwise be enticed to meddle in to boost Manzur, whom they see as the weaker general-election opponent. Whether intentional or not, they may already have been influencing Democratic primary voters by running general-election-style ads against Pappas on loop for months.
But the reality is national Republicans are already bullish about flipping the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) with Pappas as the nominee, despite nonpartisan forecasters giving Democrats a slight edge. Diverting the hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of dollars it’d likely take to influence a Democratic primary in its final two weeks is a risky bet that takes away valuable resources from other competitive contests or the general election.
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And socialist-backed or socialist-aligned candidates such as Michigan’s Abdul el Sayed and Maine’s Troy Jackson, in addition to Florida’s Nixon, have proven they can effectively ride the wave of insurgent enthusiasm from progressives all the way to the nomination.
“I think Michigan and Maine have been lessons for establishment Democrats that their party has a brand problem, not just with independent unaffiliated voters and conservative-leaning voters, but within their own ranks,” a national Republican operative said. “I think Democratic voters clearly are showing a frustration with the status quo, and no one defines status quo more than Chris Pappas.”