Sen. Darline Graham Nordone’s (R-SC) narrow special election runoff victory is giving South Carolina political strategists reason to believe the critical early presidential primary state could be wide open in 2028.
Graham Nordone defeated Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) 52.5% to 47.5% Tuesday in the Republican runoff to permanently replace her late brother in the Senate, which she entered with the endorsement of President Donald Trump and significant outside spending on her behalf.
The contest had echoes of the 2024 presidential primary. Trump backed Graham Nordone, while former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley supported Norman, who had endorsed Haley against Trump two years earlier.
South Carolina Republican strategist David Wilson said Graham Nordone’s single-digit win underscores that the state is “still competitive” for 2028 GOP hopefuls. Wilson argued that many South Carolina Republicans “agree with certain MAGA principles,” but “don’t necessarily align themselves with the MAGA movement.”
“I don’t think South Carolina is so MAGA-tized yet that someone who is not MAGA doesn’t have a fighting chance,” Wilson told the Washington Examiner. “We saw this back in polling in 2012 and 2014 after the Tea Party came into existence. … Republican primary voters in South Carolina, with only a 5-point spread, still made it clear that there are a group of people who are out there who do not consider themselves to be MAGA.”
Another Republican strategist, who was granted anonymity to discuss the race, said Graham Nordone’s win was less about Trump and more about the money spent on her race.
“Graham Nordone and her allies crushed Norman on the airwaves and in the mailboxes,” the strategist told the Washington Examiner.
To that end, MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, spent more than $827,000 on telephone calls and text messages encouraging voters to turn out for Graham Nordone, supplementing the likes of pro-green energy super PAC Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, spending $1 million against Norman after he advocated the repeal of federal solar and wind tax credits.
Outside groups spent roughly $400,000 in favor of Norman, while the candidate spent roughly $2 million of his own money on the campaign.
For 2028, the strategist argued, the result suggests a well-funded candidate could still compete in South Carolina without necessarily having Trump’s backing. But they also predicted the competition would be dramatically more intense than the Graham Nordone-Norman contest.
“2028 in South Carolina will be [the] MLB playoffs,” the source said. “[A] 2026 GOP runoff in August was pretty much middle school JV baseball — a bunch of money wasted on not much talent.”
South Carolina Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said that every election is fought around different issues and it was too early to tell the political environment of the next White House election.
“The needs of South Carolina Republican voters and their desires will shift between now and 2028, depending on what happens on a couple different fronts,” Seawright told the Washington Examiner. “I do think last night could be flirtation, but I don’t think it’s definition in terms of what the relationship 2028 would look like.”
Seawright emphasized that there were also “independent dynamics” at play in the Senate runoff, including Graham Nordone’s higher name ID because of her late brother’s long tenure in office and Norman’s baggage from Washington votes and a failed gubernatorial bid. He noted, however, that a Trump endorsement isn’t always a silver bullet in South Carolina.
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Earlier this year, South Carolina state Attorney General Alan Wilson ran better in the first round of the GOP gubernatorial primary than Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. While both made it into the runoff, Trump issued a co-endorsement of Wilson, who won the subsequent contest by 37 percentage points.
Seawright also noted that Norman’s supporters booed during his concession speech when Trump’s endorsement of Graham Nordone was mentioned.
Despite the signs that South Carolina could be competitive in 2028, Vice President JD Vance would enter the GOP primary contest with a clear head start. Vance averages 40% support in hypothetical 2028 Republican primary polls in comparison to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 23% and Donald Trump Jr.’s 12%.
Republican strategist Matt Gorman, who used to work for Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), argued that “the only way anyone can even try to beat Vance is head to head.”
“And even then it’s an uphill challenge,” Gorman told the Washington Examiner. “But if there’s three or more people competing in [South Carolina] for votes, it’s Vance’s to lose.”
Wilson, however, cautioned against assuming that Vance’s early advantage would translate automatically into victory in South Carolina. He argued some of his support stems from his status as Trump’s pick, but that didn’t guarantee a landslide win, as evidenced by the Graham Nordone results.
“Vance holds an advantage right now, but it’s not a guarantee that he becomes the nominee simply because he has the advantage in his hand right now,” he said. “People [who] come to South Carolina have to face a voting population that says, ‘Tell me more than what you said to Iowa and New Hampshire. Prove your worth here.’”