President Donald Trump is facing deep disapproval in Pennsylvania, less than three months before an election that could help decide control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to a new Inquirer/New York Times/Siena poll.
The survey, released Tuesday, found that 39% of likely Pennsylvania voters approve of Trump’s job performance, while 58% disapprove. That could spell disaster for Republicans in a state Trump carried by nearly 2 percentage points in 2024 and where the party is defending several competitive congressional seats this fall.
The poll surveyed 760 Pennsylvania voters from Aug. 17 through Aug. 21 and had a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
“Trump’s atrocious approval rating in Pennsylvania is consequential—and a double-digit drop in a purple state he won by two points in 2024 is what Donald would deduce as bigly,” political expert James Christopher told the Washington Examiner.
Trump’s standing is especially weak on the economy, affordability, and the war in Iran. The issues were central to the message that helped return him to the White House in 2024.
Just 39% of likely voters said they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 61% who disapprove. On the cost of living, his numbers were worse: 33% approved and 66% disapproved.
The data show the political advantage Trump sought two years ago by focusing on household costs may be fading. A quarter of Pennsylvania voters who backed Trump now disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, according to the poll.
Economic concerns could be especially consequential in November. Twenty-two percent of respondents named the economy, including jobs and the stock market, as their most important issue in choosing a governor — the largest share for any single issue measured in the poll. Another 10% cited inflation and the cost of living.
“Certainly it’s got to be a drag on their fortunes,” Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, said of Trump’s standing and the outlook for Republicans.
Trump also received low marks for his handling of the war in Iran. Thirty-two percent of likely voters approved, while 66% disapproved. The poll found disapproval even among 30% of his 2024 Pennsylvania supporters.
His handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was viewed similarly unfavorably, with 36% approving and 62% disapproving.
Those numbers matter because Trump campaigned on ending foreign conflicts and preventing the United States from becoming entangled in additional wars. Instead, the Iran conflict has become another possible source of frustration among a Pennsylvania electorate already anxious about costs.
Pennsylvania will host four closely watched swing district contests this fall, making the state a major test of whether Republicans can hold their House seats while the president remains unpopular.
“If I were messaging for the GOP, I’d focus on the bread and butter issues that are more local, and less existential, like foreign wars,” Christopher said.
A president’s approval rating does not determine every congressional race, he added.
Candidates’ local reputations, fundraising, turnout, and the national political environment can all shift the outcome. But Trump’s numbers give Democrats a straightforward argument in competitive districts that voters unhappy with the president’s performance can register that dissatisfaction by voting against Republican House candidates.
“Voters can feel the squeeze of skyrocketing costs; when they pay their rent, fill up their gas tank, and go shopping, and that is going to drive them to vote,” Christopher added. “Whether the independents shift blue or red is the deciding question that will give candidates the winning edge in these closely contested midterm contests.”
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Eli Cousin told the Washington Examiner that Democrats have a clear path to regaining control of the House.
“The math is simple: Democrats can win back the House by flipping four seats in Pennsylvania,” he said. “Poll after poll shows that Pennsylvanians are fed up with House Republicans like Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan, and Scott Perry who have voted for higher prices, devastating health care cuts, a reckless war in Iran, and corruption that is costing working people. Bob Harvie, Bob Brooks, Paige Cognetti, and Janelle Stelson are uniquely strong candidates who are in position to win in November.”
Mackenzie, Bresnahan, and Perry all represent districts rated as true toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. Fitzpatrick, who represents Pennsylvania’s 1st District, is currently rated Likely R.
For Republicans, the challenge will be persuading voters to separate their views of Trump from their choices in local congressional contests.
Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters recently expressed optimism about the November election.
“Bet on us because we’re going to win,” he said Monday during an interview on Fox News. “We’re going to defy history.”
“We have the candidates that we’ve recruited,” he added. “We have the resources, most cash on the hand in the history of the party ever, and then we have the best showman in the world, Donald J. Trump.”
RNC spokeswoman Kristen Cianci told the Washington Examiner: “Democrats in Pennsylvania’s most competitive districts are corrupt and dead set on raising taxes while bringing back Biden’s Border Crisis. Meanwhile, President Trump and Republicans have delivered historic tax cuts, jobs, and critical investments in Pennsylvania manufacturing and health care. Voters will choose Republicans’ results over Democrats’ extreme rhetoric every time.”