A renewed trade war with Canada is bleeding into the midterm elections as Democrats use the economic volatility to woo voters concerned about the cost of living this fall.
Democrats are highlighting what they label as the “devastating” impact of tariffs President Donald Trump imposed after trade negotiations with Canada fell apart over the weekend.
Those warnings are loudest in border states that could decide the balance of power on Capitol Hill, including Michigan, Ohio, and Maine, where Democrats are targeting vulnerable incumbents and their voting records in Congress.
Even Republicans such as Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), a centrist who has repeatedly voted against Canadian tariffs, have been tied to the trade war by Democrats, with Troy Jackson, her general election opponent, pointing to one exception to those votes.
“When Susan Collins was given the chance to stop Trump’s tariffs from raising the cost of groceries and everyday goods, she voted no,” said Jackson spokesman Dan Gottlieb. “That’s why Mainers say she votes too much with Trump.”
On Saturday, Collins called the new round of tariffs a “mistake” and urged the United States and Canada to “return to the negotiating table.”
When asked for comment, a Collins spokeswoman called the exception a “meaningless messaging amendment” that Senate Democrats introduced “to try to score cheap political points.”
The tariff criticism from Democrats is part of a larger strategy tapping into voter anxieties about the economy, something that helped Republicans take unified control of Washington in 2024 after a spike in inflation under then-President Joe Biden.
The war in Iran and its impact on gas prices is also a pillar of that messaging, as polls show Trump’s approval ratings on the economy, normally a point of strength for Republicans, declining since the conflict began in late February.
For that reason, there is some question over how much of an impact the trade spat alone will have on voters come November, when Republicans are defending their narrow control of both the House and Senate.
One GOP operative involved in Ohio politics argued the Iran war is a “far bigger issue” and that concern over tariffs, something Trump has used as a point of leverage since his first term, is at this point “baked in.”
But the timing of the latest duties, occurring little more than two months before the midterm elections, has some Republicans viewing the trade spat as an unforced error that could turn off voters in the states most reliant on Canadian trade.
Jason Roe, a GOP operative in Michigan politics, said the “erratic” way the tariffs have been leveled against one of the U.S.’s biggest trading partners is “problematic for business and farming, and undermines our arguments on cost of living issues.”
He acknowledged the administration’s rationale for imposing the tariffs — to bring American jobs back from overseas — but added that “the timing of this escalation with Canada is not helpful to Republicans in Michigan as we have a uniquely interdependent economic relationship.”
There have been two sets of tariffs threatened or imposed since Saturday, when a deal with Canada fell apart. Among other goods, the 50% tariffs apply to electronics, dairy products, and vehicle parts, a duty expected to affect Michigan’s auto industry.
Collins raised concern on Saturday that a widening trade war could hurt niche industries in Maine, which relies on Canadian processing facilities across the border for its blueberries and lobster.
It could also affect states such as Alaska, where Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is running in a toss-up race for Senate.
“Americans are paying more for everything because GOP Senate candidates have served as a rubber stamp for Trump’s chaotic tariffs at the expense of their states,” Tommy Garcia, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “Come November, voters will hold them accountable for making life more expensive.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee and several GOP Senate campaigns did not respond to a request for comment, but Republicans have previously blamed the rising cost of living on the last administration and its push for green energy.
Bob Salera, a former staffer for the GOP’s House and Senate campaign arms, said there are still a lot of Trump voters in states like Ohio open to the sort of tariffs the president imposed on Canada and most other countries since retaking office in 2025.
“It isn’t a slam dunk for Democrats to say a trade war is a bad thing, because a lot of folks are very amenable to the idea that there needs to be more trade barriers, even against our neighbors here in North America,” he said.
The failure to reach a trade deal with Canada, something that seemed imminent just a few days ago, represents the latest turn in Trump’s monthslong trade war. Since he entered office last year, the president has imposed hefty duties on countries as a bargaining chip, only to reduce or remove those levies in exchange for concessions.
The White House has defended that approach, laying blame for the scuttled trade deal at the feet of last-minute changes introduced by Canada.
“Canada tore up an incredibly generous and fair trade deal with the Trump administration to instead demand unrestricted access to the American economy while boxing American exports out of its market,” said White House spokesman Kush Desai. “President Trump will never waver from putting Americans and America First.”
Canada, in turn, has leveled the same accusation at the U.S., arguing that American negotiators were the ones walking away from a delicate compromise.
Past trade spats have blown over with Trump allowing more time for negotiations or reaching a compromise. Still, the trade war has compounded GOP concerns that the party is barreling toward November with a political weight on its back that could endanger Republicans’ prospects of holding on to their narrow majorities in the House and Senate.
Republicans had hoped the Iran war, launched to destroy Tehran’s nuclear program, would only last a handful of weeks, but negotiations to broker a peace deal have similarly fallen apart with no end to the conflict in sight.
One of the latest attacks from Democrats came Monday, when ex-Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio, released an ad blaming incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) for the “out of control” cost of gasoline and fertilizer.
Democrats will have a difficult time flipping the Senate, where Republicans hold a three-seat majority, but could conceivably do so in a blue wave year.
It would only take a few Democratic pickups in the House for Republicans to lose control of the chamber, and more than a half-dozen of the closest races will be fought in states bordering Canada.
As of Monday afternoon, Trump and Canadian leaders were still sparring with one another. Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, said his country should target “deep red states” to ensure that “America’s economy feels the pain.”
WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THE IMPENDING US-CANADA TRADE ‘WAR’
The president warned Canada to “fall in line” and called Ford an uninspiring “flunky” of Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada.
The initial round of tariffs took effect on Saturday, with Trump’s follow-up threat of further 50% tariffs slated to take effect in January — after the midterm elections.