Alaska voters will deliver the first statewide verdict Tuesday in one of the most closely watched Senate contests of the midterm elections, offering an early measure of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola before their expected showdown this fall.
Sullivan and Peltola are the clear front-runners in a crowded 16-candidate field competing in Alaska’s unusual nonpartisan primary, where candidates from every party appear on the same ballot and the top four vote-getters advance to November.
That means the biggest question Tuesday is not whether either candidate survives the primary, where both are heavily favored to advance. Instead, the results could show how closely matched Sullivan and Peltola are while determining which two other candidates will join them on the November ballot.
Alaska’s general election is decided through ranked-choice voting. Voters rank candidates by preference, and if no candidate wins a majority initially, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated, and those ballots are redistributed according to voters’ subsequent choices until someone surpasses 50%.
The race has emerged as a key battleground in the fight for control of the Senate, with polling showing a close contest and national groups pouring millions of dollars into the state.
A Siena University poll conducted in early July showed Sullivan with 47% support to Peltola’s 45%. Republicans have responded by increasing their investment in the state. The Senate Leadership Fund announced last week that it would spend another $2 million in Alaska, bringing its total investment against Peltola to $17 million.
But some of the most unusual spending has been directed at candidates other than Sullivan and Peltola.
Outside groups have spent more than $2 million promoting little-known or perennial candidates in an effort to influence who claims the remaining two spots in the top four. Strategists say the goal is to shape the November field by elevating candidates who could possibly draw support away from one of the front-runners.
Anchorage political consultant Jim Lottsfeldt told Alaska Public Media that Fair Deal Alaska appears to be trying to improve Sullivan’s position by helping two lesser-known candidates advance who could peel progressive support away from Peltola. But he said groups on both sides are trying to influence the composition of the general election field.
“Depending on what comprises that top four, people feel like it can affect an election,” Lottsfeldt said.
Ranked-choice voting could blunt that strategy because voters whose preferred candidate is eliminated can have their ballots transferred to their next choice. Still, the effort underscores how competitive the race has become months before November.
Tuesday’s primary also features an unusual complication: two candidates named Dan Sullivan. An Alaska judge cleared the way for Sen. Sullivan to share the ballot with another Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher and former U.S. Forest Service employee who is also seeking the seat, also as a Republican.
The incumbent Sullivan and Peltola are widely expected to advance, putting more attention on the margin between them and the identities of the third- and fourth-place finishers.
JUDGE RULES DAN SULLIVAN CAN APPEAR ON ALASKA PRIMARY BALLOT AGAINST SEN. DAN SULLIVAN
For Sullivan, the primary will offer a measure of how firmly he has consolidated Republican voters as he seeks another term. For Peltola, it will provide an early indication of her ability to assemble the coalition she would need to defeat a Republican incumbent statewide.
With polling showing the two separated by just a few points and millions already being spent to influence the race, Tuesday’s results could provide the clearest preview yet of the Senate battle Alaska voters will ultimately decide in November.