Republicans’ drumbeat on fraud is only set to grow louder in Minnesota after Democrats nominated a candidate for Senate who is finishing up her second term as Gov. Tim Walz’s (D-MN) top deputy.
Throughout her campaign, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) has distanced herself from Walz and the systemic fraud uncovered in Minnesota’s social service programs during his tenure as governor. The controversy grew so great for Democrats that Walz ended his campaign for a third term in January, and Minnesota quickly became ground zero for a nationwide crackdown on fraud by the Trump administration.
As an attack line, it’s been a major focus for Republicans who hope to win a statewide race in Minnesota for the first time in two decades. They are facing headwinds with President Donald Trump’s falling approval ratings and a Minnesota electorate that generally favors Democrats, but the GOP sees the issue as a rare political wedge.
Not only have Walz’s approval ratings fallen to new lows ahead of his retirement, but polling shows 4 in 5 voters are concerned about reports of billions in tax dollars stolen from welfare and pandemic-era programs run by the state and funded by the federal government.
Republicans have painted Flanagan, a progressive Democrat who won her Senate primary on Tuesday, as part of a failed political establishment in Minnesota and made clear they would link her to Walz and his handling of the crisis.
“Peggy Flanagan oversaw the worst fraud scandal in modern American history and is now running as one of the most radical socialist Senate candidates on the map,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a Tuesday statement. “Minnesota is desperate for change and fresh leadership.”
Ex-sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, the Republican nominee in that Senate race, used one of her first general election interviews to call the fraud a “national embarrassment.”
Republicans were always going to tie the Democrats to fraud, whether it was Flanagan or Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), the primary rival Flanagan soundly defeated Tuesday night. Tafoya launched her campaign earlier this year, lumping the issue together with poor school test scores and the state’s crime rates to paint herself as an “outsider” who would challenge the status quo.
But Flanagan gives Republicans a clearer foil to run against in November — someone who is directly associated with the Walz administration and will have a harder time sidestepping questions about the state’s response to the fraud discovery.
Earlier this year, Walz, the 2024 running mate of former Vice President Kamala Harris, addressed the crisis by shuttering fraud-riddled programs and appointing officials to oversee fraud prevention efforts in government — steps that Flanagan has defended as “incredibly aggressive.”
Flanagan has simultaneously been careful to minimize her own involvement, instead deferring to Walz’s statement that the “buck stops” with him.
Her response is part of a careful balancing act in which she’s touted the accomplishments of the Walz administration while dancing around perceived liabilities. In her victory speech on Tuesday night, Flanagan stressed the role she played in securing paid family leave, universal school lunches, and an emergency insulin “safety net” program signed into law as lieutenant governor.
The Minnesota Reformer described Flanagan’s response to the fraud as a tacit admission of her lighter workload as lieutenant governor. The Flanagan campaign did not respond to a request for comment at the time of publication.
In her speech, Flanagan previewed what she sees as her most potent lines of attack against Tafoya, painting her as a rubber-stamp for Trump and tying her to the president’s tariffs and an unpopular war in Iran.
“You know what? We already have too many spineless ‘yes, sir’ senators who won’t stand up to Donald Trump,” Flanagan said. “Minnesota, we are not going to send him another one.”
Tafoya, recruited into the race by Scott and other national Republicans, has broadly aligned with Trump’s agenda, but she is a one-time critic of the president and could have some cross-appeal due to her more liberal views on abortion access.
Tafoya also has greater name recognition due to her years spent as a sideline reporter for the NFL.
The general election polling available as of Wednesday shows Tafoya behind by single digits, with nonpartisan political analysts rating the Senate seat as likely to stay in Democratic hands. It is currently held by retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), a progressive Democrat who endorsed Flanagan.
Flanagan’s primary win is part of a growing number of polling misses this cycle, and required her to overcome arguments from Craig, a relative centrist, about whether she was truly electable at the top of the ticket.
Flanagan won the primary by nearly 20 points despite independent polls showing her even or narrowly behind Craig. In their July debate, Craig warned that Flanagan had a “unique liability” due to her association with the Walz administration and that she had taken “no accountability” for the theft of federal tax dollars.
“Republicans, they’re going to have a field day with this with you,” Craig said at the time. “And it is my responsibility to warn Democratic primary voters that Republicans are dying to run against you because they believe that you have a unique vulnerability on fraud.”
The political firestorm is part of what prompted the Trump administration to create an anti-fraud task force led by Vice President JD Vance. The Somali community in Minnesota was implicated in early federal prosecutions of fraud, driving the White House to surge immigration enforcement agents to the state.
Democrats note that Republicans have their own liabilities to deal with, including rising inflation and the voter blowback often seen for the party in power in a midterm year. Flanagan signaled Tuesday that Trump’s immigration crackdown, controversial after two protesters were killed in Minneapolis, will continue to be a focus and has called for the party to “rip apart ICE.”
It’s an issue set that mirrors how Democrats are running against Trump nationally. Candidates appear acutely aware, however, that the fraud could hurt their chances in Minnesota if not countered effectively.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), the Democrat hoping to succeed Walz in the governor’s mansion, tried to get ahead of the issue by rolling out an anti-fraud platform shortly after announcing her campaign in May.
Klobuchar, who has served in the Senate since 2007, is considered the favorite to win the governor’s race against House Speaker Lisa Demuth, the Republican nominee. Demuth’s win in the GOP primary marked a defeat for Trump, who endorsed 2020 election skeptic Mike Lindell.