Minnesota Democrats will decide on Tuesday whether the party’s next Senate nominee comes from its progressive wing or pragmatic center, making the race the latest test of an increasingly consequential battle over the Democratic Party‘s direction after its 2024 election losses.
The contest between Rep. Angie Craig (D-MI) and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan comes just days after Abdul el Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary.
Flanagan has embraced the party’s progressive movement, winning endorsements from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). Craig, meanwhile, has presented herself as a pragmatic Democrat focused on winning competitive elections, earning backing from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and other Democratic leaders.
The backing of Democratic leadership and Craig’s fundraising advantage is only feeding Flanagan’s populist contrast.
“We know that they are spending on ads that you’ve seen to try to tear me down to buy the seat for Congresswoman Craig, but here’s the deal: They know that she will do their bidding, and I won’t,” Flanagan said at a campaign rally with Sanders last month.
Moderate Democrats are watching races such as Minnesota’s as they debate whether progressive candidates who win Democratic primaries can assemble the broader coalition needed to prevail in the general election.
“The stakes are enormous,” Katie deGruyter, a senior vice president at the centrist Democratic group Third Way, told the Washington Examiner. “This is a critical race for control of the Senate. All kinds of eyeballs are on what it’s going to take to win a coalition that can accomplish that.”
DeGruyter argued that Democratic nominees in battleground states ultimately must appeal beyond the party’s liberal base.
“There are three conservatives for every two liberals in every single battleground state,” she said. “So just sheer mathematics shows that Democrats have to win more moderates than Republicans.”
The ideological divide has shaped nearly every aspect of the race. Immigration has emerged as one of the sharpest points of division. Flanagan has criticized Craig’s vote for the Laken Riley Act, arguing it aligned her with President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda. Craig later said she regretted the vote, but defended it as reflective of the realities of representing a competitive district.
Both candidates have called for major changes to Immigration and Customs Enforcement following federal immigration operations in Minnesota earlier this year. Flanagan, though, has called for dismantling and rebuilding the agency, while Craig has proposed congressional reforms and stricter accountability measures.
Craig has also made fraud in Minnesota’s government programs a centerpiece of her campaign, arguing Republicans would weaponize the issue in November and accusing Flanagan of failing to take responsibility as the sitting lieutenant governor. Flanagan has defended the administration’s response, saying lawmakers strengthened oversight and Walz acted to address the issue.
As the race enters its final weekend, Craig sought to reinforce her argument that she is the party’s strongest general election candidate.
In a memo released Friday to top surrogates, Craig’s campaign manager argued the primary is “in a dead heat heading into the final days” and that the congresswoman has “a clear path to victory.” The memo noted that although Flanagan’s campaign “continues to flaunt their own polling,” independent surveys show the candidates are effectively tied. It also contended that Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary proved “polling is deeply broken” after surveys overstated el Sayed’s advantage over Stevens.
Citing the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, the campaign said Craig leads Flanagan 42% to 40%, while internal polling found Democratic voters viewed Craig as better able to “stand up to Trump and hold ICE accountable” and more electable in a general election.
The memo concludes that “Angie Craig has momentum going into the final weekend before Election Day,” arguing she “wins the electability argument by nearly 20 points” and has built “the broadest coalition in the race,” making her “the fighter Democrats need to hold this seat and win back the Senate majority.”
Despite the competing narratives, public polling has consistently pointed to a razor-thin race. SurveyUSA polls conducted for Minnesota media outlets showed Craig leading by 5 points in June, the race tied in mid-July, and Craig ahead by 2 points in the final survey before Tuesday’s primary. Craig also enters the closing days with a sizable fundraising advantage, having raised $12.7 million and reporting $3.6 million cash on hand through July 22, compared with Flanagan’s $6.6 million raised and $1.1 million in the bank, according to federal election filings.
The outcome is expected to offer the latest measure of where Democratic primary voters want to take the party after a series of progressive victories around the country. The winner will advance to the general election to face the Republican nominee in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN), with former television broadcaster Michele Tafoya widely viewed as the GOP front-runner.