Oman and Iran remain locked in negotiations about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, potentially running past the Thursday time frame expected by President Donald Trump.
The foreign ministries of both nations confirmed Thursday that the geographic coordinates for a maritime route through the strait have been agreed upon, so long as “certain parties do not obstruct this process.” However, international observers fear that the deal, which Iran is uncharacteristically enthusiastic about, could concede to Tehran unprecedented authority to charge for transit through the strait.
“The law of the sea rests on a simple principle: straits used for international navigation are open to all, without condition,” Morgan Murphy, a national security expert and former Pentagon spokesman, told the Washington Examiner. “Break it in Hormuz, and the playbook opens for every chokepoint on earth. Tolls could spring up to enter the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, Bab el Mandeb, and Malacca.”
The framework deal, no details of which are currently known, is reportedly awaiting final approval from Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.
A coalition of eight maritime associations issued a joint letter to United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday, warning that in addition to the “immediate financial implications for global trade,” charges for transit through the strait “would establish a precedent that could undermine the internationally recognized legal framework governing straits used for international navigation and transit passage.”
“Once such a precedent is established, it becomes increasingly difficult to resist similar measures elsewhere, creating uncertainty for international shipping and global commerce,” the letter reads. “Ultimately, these impacts will carry a human cost, affecting livelihoods around the world. It is vital that we continue supporting the preservation of freedom of navigation as the foundation of international maritime governance.”
The letter was also addressed to International Maritime Organization Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Wednesday that communications with the ayatollah, who is believed to be injured but alive in a hidden location, are “very difficult at the moment.” The supreme leader is the son of the deceased Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and was nearly killed in the opening strikes of Operation Epic Fury early this year.
The United States has repeatedly conveyed throughout the Iran conflict that it would not accept any resolution that allows Tehran to charge fees for use of the Strait. A reversal on this point could be damaging for the Trump administration, which has struggled in recent months to wrap up the military campaign it started in February.
Trump, however, is projecting confidence and optimism about the deal — though the time frame he offered for when it would cross the finish line is quickly closing.
“It could happen, tomorrow or the next day,” Trump said Tuesday. “A lot of progress has been made.”
Oman is leading the negotiations because of both its geographic and political relationship to Iran.
“The sultans kept lines open to Tehran when nobody else would and never joined the Saudi-led bloc against Iran,” Murphy said. “The Saudis, Qataris, and Emiratis are parties to the conflict — Oman is the only littoral state Tehran will sit across from that Washington can also live with. It’s not that Oman was chosen — it’s that no one else was possible.”
Even if a framework is established that is acceptable for all sides, Iran is not guaranteeing that passage through the strait will be normalized immediately.
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“The possible agreement between Iran and Oman on arrangements for vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with the immediate opening of the strait,” Iranian state media reported on Wednesday. “Negotiations regarding arrangements for vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are purely Iranian-Omani and have no connection to the United States.”
The state media went on to assert that a full reopening “depends on a change in behaviour and correction of US violations,” and that if “US violations continue, the strait of Hormuz will not open even with an agreement between Iran and Oman.”