Democrats may have a glimmer of hope in deep-red Kansas after election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the state’s Senate race one notch toward competitiveness following pastor Adam Hamilton’s Democratic primary victory.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race Tuesday from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican,” citing Hamilton’s profile as the founder of the nation’s largest United Methodist church, his strong fundraising, and a political environment that could give Democrats an opening in a state that has occasionally backed Democratic governors despite its conservative tilt.
Hamilton, a fifth-generation Kansan and longtime pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, defeated a crowded field of 11 Democratic candidates even after entering the race later than many of his rivals. He quickly emerged as the front-runner, fueled by record-breaking fundraising. Hamilton’s funding numbers outdo incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) by more than six-to-one last quarter, bringing in $3.7 million compared with Marshall’s $610,000.
Marshall, who won his Republican primary with about 79% of the vote, is seeking a second term after building a record as a close ally of President Donald Trump. He will face Hamilton in November.
While Kansas has reliably voted Republican in presidential elections, with Trump carrying the state by roughly 15 points in both 2020 and 2024, it has occasionally elected Democratic governors. A Democratic victory in the Senate race, however, would be historic. No Democrat has won a Kansas Senate seat since 1932, when Franklin D. Roosevelt first won the presidency, and Republicans have held both of the state’s Senate seats continuously since 1939.
“To win in the fall Hamilton would have to beat history,” University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato wrote on X. “Last KS Dem was elected to Senate in 1932—and didn’t get a 2nd term. Longest losing streak for either party in any state.”
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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairwoman Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) quickly embraced Hamilton following his primary win, calling him “a voice in Washington” who would “bring people together to get things done” while criticizing Marshall’s record on the economy and healthcare.
Despite the rating shift, Republicans remain favored to hold the seat, making Kansas a long-shot pickup opportunity for Democrats as they look to expand the Senate map in the 2026 midterm elections.