Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico continues to hold a razor-thin lead over his Republican rival in the Texas Senate race, according to a poll released Tuesday.
Talarico received 47% of support compared to GOP candidate Ken Paxton’s 45%, according to the survey from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center. The latest poll reflects a trend of the most recent surveys on the race, which show Talarico leading within the margin of error.
The Texas Attorney General’s campaign dismissed the poll on Tuesday.
“The only poll that matters is November 3,” Paxton’s campaign adviser Nick Maddux told Axios, referring to the general election. “Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas — a pipe dream.”
The Texas race is one of the closest nationwide and is viewed as critically important, as both parties battle for wider margins of power in the Senate. Republicans hold a slim majority in the upper chamber, but Democrats are looking to change the dynamic come November by flipping heavily contested seats in states such as Texas.
Six percent of voters in the Lone Star State remain undecided, according to the TSU survey, which follows other polling handing Talarico a narrow lead. A Fox News poll released in late July had Talarico up 51% to 48%. A recent Texas Public Opinion Research survey indicated Talarico was up 45% to 40%. 270 To Win’s polling aggregate hands the race to Talarico, 48% to 44.7%.
Talarico still faces steep odds in his bid to succeed outgoing Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and flip the seat blue. No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1988.
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With two full months of campaigning left before the general election, the race is still Paxton’s to lose, according to prediction markets. Kalshi hands the Republican candidate the victory, 53% to 47%. Polymarket similarly has Paxton up, 52% to 48%.
The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University surveyed 1,200 likely voters in Texas with a margin of error of +/- 2.83 points. The survey in English and Spanish was fielded between July 27 and July 30.