This story is part of a series of monthly snapshots from the Washington Examiner, titled Midterm Countdown, gauging the state of the 2026 election cycle. Scroll down to the bottom of the story for the latest prediction market odds of who is going to win.
Republican optimism about winning the 2026 midterm elections has grown in recent weeks. Democrats need to net just three seats to retake the majority, and the party controlling the White House typically suffers major losses in midterm elections.
But the GOP came out ahead after a yearlong slog of redistricting pursuits around the country. The remapping led to 14 new seats that President Donald Trump would have carried by at least 10 points, with six of those seats going to Trump by more than 15 points, according to an analysis from the National Republican Congressional Committee.
By comparison, in 2018, when Democrats flipped 40 House seats on their way to the majority, they won only five out of 176 seats that Trump carried by more than 10 points. That’s fewer than 3% of the seats Trump won by double digits.
The current House map has Republicans starting off closer to the 218 seats needed for a majority. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 203 seats as safely or likely Republican, while only 194 are safely or likely Democrat. That means the 18 seats rated as toss-ups are all the more crucial for both parties. In 2018, Cook had 27 seats rated as toss-ups by August.
Beyond the favorable map, Republicans also see an opportunity in a string of socialist primary victories that they believe will provide a potent contrast heading into November.
“The environment has shifted because House Democrats have spent the last several months lurching even further to the left while Republicans have continued building advantages where it matters: a more favorable map, record fundraising, stronger candidates, and a record of delivering on the issues voters care about. Democrats are consumed by socialism and infighting. Republicans are focused on growing the House majority,” Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the NRCC, told the Washington Examiner.
New York Republican strategist Jay Townsend said the rise of socialism in 2026 is like “handing the GOP a football.”
“So they’ll catch it, and they’ll try and run with it,” Townsend told the Washington Examiner. “Will they score a touchdown with it? I think that remains to be seen, because the GOP has its own messaging problem.”
The socialist surge may be giving Republicans a fighting chance, but some public opinion experts say it might not be enough if costs remain high come November.
“The biggest thing that is going to determine where all this ends up is gas prices. … If you picture some extreme left candidates in swing states and gas prices top $5 a gallon, they’re going to win,” said RMG Research founder Scott Rasmussen, adding that the socialists would win in spite of their ideology and not because of it.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dismissed the fact that Republicans might have reason to be optimistic about the midterm elections.
“Back on planet Earth, everything is too expensive, Americans are losing health care, Trump’s unpopular war of choice continues, people are pissed at Republicans for their broken promises to lower costs, and voters are abandoning them at a staggering level. House Democrats have the message, momentum, better candidates and most importantly — the American people on our side. Taken together, it’s going to power us back to the majority in November,” DCCC spokesman Viet Shelton told the Washington Examiner.
Still, Republicans, facing historical headwinds, will have to convince voters to help them maintain their GOP trifecta amid low polling for Trump’s administration and the Iran war.
“Is it going to be a good news week for the White House or a bad news week?” Townsend told the Washington Examiner. “What you do now is you kind of fill your ammunition bin, and I think Democrats know what theirs is. The GOP is looking for something offensive, and Democrats are about to give it to them.”
Do the Democrats have a message?
Democrats have grappled with their inability to coalesce on a message since their resounding defeat in 2024, and, two years later, the party is still on uneven footing. The rise of progressive candidates, who are running on tenets such as “Medicare for all” and increased taxes while the Democratic Socialists of America campaigns for an abolition of the Senate, has complicated Democrats’ ability to find a cohesive and convincing message.
“Democrats have these cohesion problems, and they also seem to be picking more candidates who don’t really align with what the national leadership wants,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The rise of the socialist wing has complicated that effort, consuming much of the political oxygen inside the Democratic Party while pulling attention away from the affordability message party leaders want to emphasize.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) late last month kicked off his midterm sprint with a “fighting for an affordable America” agenda, unveiled in a battleground Pennsylvania district. He highlighted his plan to extend Obamacare tax credits, repeal the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and end the Trump administration’s tariffs if Democrats win the midterm elections.
Democrats have said for months they want to litigate this election on affordability concerns, but their policies on lowering costs have yet to be fully defined. That said, a recent poll found Democrats leading Republicans by a point on the economy.
At the same time, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) unveiled a new plan to “expose President Trump’s rampant self-dealing, show how his corruption costs American families, and develop legislation to prevent presidents from using public office for personal profit,” according to a press release.
The Democratic National Committee, which has been saddled with debt and unrest over Chairman Ken Martin’s leadership, also pointed to Trump’s corruption as central to the party’s message.
“Donald Trump vowed to lower prices and end ‘forever wars,’ yet he has reneged on every promise while using the presidency as a cash-grab for himself and his wealthy donors,” DNC spokeswoman Kendall Witmer told the Washington Examiner in a statement. “Meanwhile, Democrats are on the ground, organizing everywhere and meeting voters where they are by focusing on lowering costs, fighting corruption, and expanding access to healthcare. Voters are fed up with Trump and Republicans’ billionaire-first agenda while everyday Americans struggle to make ends meet, and Democrats are ready to deliver real results for Americans when we retake the majority.”
Progressive takeover gives GOP an opening
The political capital of the Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) wing of the Democratic Party has reached new heights this cycle.
The 2026 primaries have shown the left wing of the party split from the Democratic establishment, with candidates backed by the DSA ousting incumbent House members.
In June, candidates backed by socialist New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani ousted two incumbent House Democrats. In Colorado, longtime Rep. Diana DeGette lost to Sanders-backed Melat Kiros.
The biggest matchup will be on Tuesday, where progressive Abdul el Sayed will face off against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary. El Sayed has seen significant support from socialists and progressive Democrats.
Stevens, meanwhile, is seen as the establishment pick, having the support of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, South Carolina kingmaker Jim Clyburn (D-SC), former Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).
The Michigan race also highlights an emerging asymmetry inside the Democratic Party. The progressive wing has national stars who can fill arenas, dominate social media, and command news coverage. The establishment has endorsements, but far fewer personalities capable of generating the same enthusiasm.
Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez have become the party’s most recognizable surrogates for progressive candidates, while establishment Democrats have increasingly relied on governors, sitting senators, and longtime party leaders like the 86-year-old Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC). Former President Barack Obama, once the party’s singular political draw, has largely remained on the sidelines.
Polling shows the Democratic Party remains underwater with voters, with a 55% unfavorable rating compared to 38% favorable, according to a RealClearPolitics polling average.
While socialist and progressive candidates are netting notable victories in primaries, the general election will be a different playing field.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the jury is still out on socialism among voters, with 47% of respondents saying they do not understand socialists’ policies, and 49% saying they do.
The poll also found only 27% of respondents believed socialists have “at least some good ideas,” while 23% were unsure or did not respond. Fifty-one percent said the coalition has “few or no good ideas.”
Those numbers illustrate Republicans’ bet: that primary electorates may reward socialist candidates, but the label remains a liability with the broader electorate.
If the election were held today
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville confidently predicted that Democrats will take back both branches of Congress in a text message with the Washington Examiner.
“House 90% Dem,” Carville said of the likelihood of Democrats winning. “Senate 60% Dem.”
Steve Bannon, who served as the chief strategist on Trump’s successful 2016 campaign, was bullish on the GOP’s chances of keeping the House.
“I think the House is more savable because the House is down to 15 districts, right? Twelve of those districts Trump won in 2024. You should be able to hold, let’s say, half of those. If you save half of those, you may eke out a 218 to 217,” Bannon told the Washington Examiner. “I mean, it’s going to be no more than one or two seats.”
“Don’t get me wrong, the Democrats could sweep here, but all these races are going to be very close, and that could be saved,” Bannon added.
The War Room podcast host was less confident about the Senate, however, and laid the blame squarely on Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) for being unable to pass the SAVE America Act.
“There’s nothing in the dynamics going to change, and you’re losing MAGA strongholds,” he said. “Like I think you’re 4 or 5 points down in Ohio, you’re 9 points down in North Carolina, you’re 3.5 or 4 points down in Georgia. These are MAGA strongholds, right?”
What the prediction markets say
Prediction markets are increasingly viewed as a real-time gauge of political sentiment. Unlike traditional polling, they aggregate real-money bets on political outcomes, often capturing shifts in sentiment quicker than surveys.
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At this stage in the 2026 cycle, Kalshi gives Democrats an 83% chance of retaking the House, while Republicans have a 53% chance of keeping control of the Senate.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is slightly more bullish on Democrats, giving the party an 86% chance of retaking the House and a 56% chance of winning the Senate.