The Supreme Court is set to weigh into a massive Second Amendment legal war over bans on some of the most popular firearms in the country, teeing up the high court’s most critical gun ruling in half a decade during the next term.
The high court will examine whether “assault weapons” bans, which typically outlaw the purchase of AR-15 and similar semiautomatic rifles, are constitutional under the Second and 14th amendments. The pair of lawsuits, which were consolidated before the Supreme Court, challenge bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut, and the group backing both legal challenges, the Second Amendment Foundation, believes the eventual ruling will have as big of an impact on gun law as the Supreme Court’s 2008 decision in District of Columbia v. Heller and 2022 decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen.
Bill Sack, senior director of legal operations at the Second Amendment Foundation, told the Washington Examiner that the case’s importance to Second Amendment rights will be “massive” and “pretty much as big as it gets.”
“This is the next ‘great white whale’ of the gun advocacy space, so it doesn’t get much bigger,” Sack said. “What is at stake is whether the Second Amendment protects the most popular firearms in the country.”
Case is poised to be a major precedent for gun law at the Supreme Court
The consolidated cases in Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins appear likely to be as significant as Heller, which solidified the right for private citizens to own firearms in their home for self defense, and Bruen, which stuck down broad restrictions on carrying handguns in public, partially due to the popularity of the guns at the center of the case and also due to the lack of comprehensive case law at the Supreme Court about the Second Amendment.
“I can name on one hand, really, the number of major precedential, like, foundational Second Amendment cases,” Amy Swearer, a senior legal fellow at the conservative Advancing American Freedom, told the Washington Examiner. “You can’t do that with First Amendment issues or Fourth Amendment issues in the same way.”
While the Supreme Court has issued multiple gun-related rulings over its two centuries, many of the most consequential cases protecting Second Amendment rights have come in the past two decades, beginning with the Heller decision. Swearer emphasized that the assault weapons ban case could be the first time the Supreme Court sets a line over what weapons are constitutionally protected.
“This is the first time that the Supreme Court is taking on any sort of case — outside of, you know, Heller and handguns inside the home — dealing with what types of weapons are protected,” Swearer said. “And this is really important because it has ramifications not just for the millions and millions of Americans who live in these handful of very restrictive states that have eliminated their right to possess these weapons.”
Gun rights advocates have also highlighted how this case deals with the most popular class of rifle in the country, the AR-15, and how the sweeping bans Connecticut, Illinois, and nearly a dozen other states have implemented could essentially block common firearms.
“It’s ubiquitous,” Justin Davis, director of public affairs at the National Rifle Association, told the Washington Examiner. “I mean, nearly so that the AR-15 is as common as F-150s in this country, and essentially banning that and banning semiautomatic platform firearms is essentially banning common technology in this current day and age.”
“In many respects, they are just kind of the quintessential normal rifle in the country. They are not a subdivision. They are not niche. They are not an exception to any rule. And you know, in many ways, they are just the rule. That is just what a modern rifle looks like,” Sack said.
Gun rights advocates coming into Supreme Court arguments with momentum
Over the past several months, gun rights advocates have scored key wins both in the Supreme Court and lower courts, adding to confidence going into the “assault weapons” case before the high court next term.
During the last term, the justices struck down a federal law broadly barring unlawful drug users from possessing firearms in United States v. Hemani, and they also struck down a sweeping Hawaii law aimed at severely limiting concealed carry of firearms in public in Wolford v. Lopez. On the “assault weapons” bans, a Virginia court halted the implementation of the commonwealth’s newly enacted ban, while the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 3rd Circuit struck down New Jersey’s ban as unconstitutional.
“In just these last few weeks, what we’ve seen is in Hemani and Wolford, and now of course both in Virginia and New Jersey, we’re seeing that landmark Supreme Court case being applied,” Davis said, referring to the 2022 Bruen decision’s framework being used to strike down assault weapons bans. “This [case] will serve as a clear indicator whether or not progressive politicians can ban America’s most popular rifle, which is the AR-15.”
The ruling at the 3rd Circuit was the first instance of a federal appeals court striking down an “assault weapons” ban, creating a split between the different federal judicial circuits on the issue. The Supreme Court announced it would hear the consolidated “assault weapons” ban case prior to the 3rd Circuit’s ruling. The justices’ decision to take up the case when all of the appeals courts had at that point agreed on upholding assault weapons bans could be an early indication that they do not agree with the conclusion.
Sack said that while the 3rd Circuit ruling is a boost to their argument, the Supreme Court taking up the case prior to a circuit split had them already feeling positive momentum going into the arguments.
“I think we felt that the momentum was in our favor even before this 3rd Circuit judgment,” Sack said. “We’re thrilled to now have a bona fide circuit split, and especially one going the right way.”
Gun rights advocates are optimistic high court will strike down bans
The string of recent wins, alongside the Second Amendment-friendly nature of the current Supreme Court majority, have gun rights advocates optimistic that the high court will strike down the bans, adding to their landmark rulings protecting gun rights.
“We feel incredibly confident that it’s going to reinforce those decisions that protect the Second Amendment. We have a very good court, of course, right now in the makeup that we have, and once we have that decision, I think that opens the door for all those other states that have needlessly banned law-abiding citizens from uncommonly owned firearms,” Davis said.
With the current Supreme Court’s case law on gun issues, it would likely take an uncharacteristic ruling for Connecticut and Cook County to prevail. Swearer said an adverse ruling for pro-Second Amendment advocates would require the high court to “abandon any good faith application of its principles that it laid down in Heller, McDonald v. City of Chicago, and Bruen.”
“If the court finds a way to uphold these laws as constitutional, we’re back to where we were before Heller, where you might as well not even have a Second Amendment right,” Swearer said.
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The Supreme Court has yet to schedule the “assault weapons” ban case for argument but will likely hear it sometime between December 2026 and April 2027, based on the current briefing schedule for the case. A ruling in the case is expected by the end of June 2027, but Swearer warned that even if the high court does strike down the laws, it is unlikely to be the end of states’ attempts to restrict popular firearms.
“I don’t expect any of these states that have implemented these types of laws to just roll over and die on this issue, and I think what you will see afterward is some sort of extensive permitting process for these types of guns,” Swearer said. “I think this is an important first step on this issue.”