Registered voters favor Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives by a slim margin despite President Donald Trump’s low approval rating, according to a poll released on Saturday.
Though only four in ten registered voters approve of Trump’s job performance in his second term, Republican House candidates are just three percentage points behind their Democratic counterparts in the race for voters’ support ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to the Washington Post-Ipsos survey. When asked if the election were held today, 48% of registered voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate, compared to 45% who would vote for the Republican running in their district.
Trump’s approval rating has dropped in recent weeks and months amid the unpopular conflict in Iran and broad concerns about its effect on domestic prices.
Yet the data suggest voters distinguish between Trump’s handling of the economy and the broader GOP’s economic policies.
More than six in ten registered voters disapprove of “his handling of the economy and Iran,” unsurprising given that the intermittent fighting between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz has drastically increased gas prices. Yet voters say they trust Republicans “to do a better job handling the economy” by 39% compared to 35% for Democrats.
On some similarly broad survey questions about the Republican Party itself, rather than Trump personally, GOP candidates score higher than their Democratic colleagues.
The Republican Party scores one percentage point higher than the Democratic Party when registered voters are asked which political party they “agree with more on important issues” and “better represents” their “own personal values.” Democrats, meanwhile, hold an advantage on whether the party is “more concerned with the needs of people like you.”
The new data come almost a month after three socialist candidates backed by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani won congressional primary elections, setting off a series of primary victories for other socialist candidates. Though many Democrats anticipated the party to moderate following its loss in the 2024 presidential election, the success of Mamdani-aligned candidates has instead suggested the party is moving further to the left ahead of November.
Some key figures within the party, such as comedian Bill Maher and strategist James Carville, have taken a firm position against supporting socialist candidates, while other Democrats have welcomed the growing influence of the party’s left wing.
TRUMP’S POPULARITY WORSENS WITH IRAN CEASEFIRE FALLING APART
The new data offer a potentially positive sign for Republicans on Capitol Hill who hope the rise of socialism in the Democratic Party, or “communism” as Trump has often referred to it, may serve as a lifeline in November amid the president’s poor approval rating.
The poll was conducted online from July 8-13 among 2,092 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. Democrats held a 5 percentage-point lead over Republicans when the poll was conducted in May.