Senate Republicans are treating Graham Platner’s exit from the Maine Senate race with a sense of urgency and want to avoid being caught flat-footed as Democrats prepare to field a new candidate.
National and state Republicans have begun pulling together all of the opposition research done earlier in the cycle, according to a source familiar with the planning, as a large field of Democrats, most of whom ran for House, Senate, or governor this year in Maine, enter the race to replace Platner.
That legwork has been accompanied by a flash poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the results of which were shared by its political team in an email to stakeholders on Wednesday.
The NRSC said it saw “several risks” with four months until election day, including a “shortened window to define the next Democratic candidate,” and urged the party to “move quickly.”
“Democrats will try to quickly turn the page, clean up the process, and present a replacement nominee as a fresh start,” reads the email, obtained by the Washington Examiner.
“We cannot let them do that without making clear that whoever emerges will be tied to the same radical policies and the same political machine that Democrats were willing to tolerate until the damage became too great.”
The NRSC also emphasized one particular finding from its flash survey: Democratic primary voters “overwhelmingly” wanted Platner to stay in the race and “keep fighting.”
“That is an important warning sign,” reads the email. “This race is far from over, and there is still significant energy on the Left.”
The email was sent just before Platner defiantly left the Senate race on Wednesday night in the face of rape allegations he denies.
DEMOCRATS SHY AWAY FROM A KAMALA HARRIS-STYLE ‘CORONATION’ IN MAINE
The note of urgency is not new for national Republicans and could be geared toward keeping donors engaged in the race. A couple of weeks earlier, when it seemed as though Democrats were sticking with Platner as their nominee, the NRSC sent a memo calling it a “fatal mistake” to assume he is too flawed to win, citing Vice President Kamala Harris’s 7-point win there in 2024.
But Republicans quietly acknowledge that Democrats are better off without Platner, and that a candidate free from his baggage gives them a better chance of defeating Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) in November.
Before the latest allegations, Platner spent months answering for his Nazi-linked tattoo and years of controversial social media posts.
He has yet to withdraw formally from the race, but the Maine Democratic Party is already planning an impromptu nominating convention for late July.
The silver lining for Republicans is that Democrats are not out of the woods yet. They will spend the next two weeks navigating a civil war between the Left, which favors Troy Jackson, a former state senator who placed third in the gubernatorial primary, and pragmatic Democrats who may reject his progressive politics.
Other leading candidates include former public health official Nirav Shah and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, both of whom ran competitively in the governor’s race.
“I’m sure they are breathing a sigh of relief,” said one Republican operative involved in Senate races. “But you toppled Saddam — now put the place back together. They still have a long road ahead of them finding the right person and coalescing around them.”
There’s also the possibility that Democrats nominate a replacement with fresh political baggage, and though the shake-up has placed Republicans in a waiting pattern, they are gathering oppo files from committees such as the Republican Governors Association, which already vetted possible Democratic opponents this cycle.
“Anything that comes out and it’s like yeah, this person is also morally questionable — they are in a s***load of trouble,” the operative said of Democrats.
Until that convention takes place, Republicans are test-driving a message that applies to all of the Senate candidates and hope the compressed time frame cuts in their favor.
They’ve begun describing the switch-up as a “coup” similar to President Joe Biden being forced out of the presidential race after his disastrous debate performance in 2024. His replacement, Harris, failed to recover with barely 100 days until election day.
“Obviously, we know how that turned out,” said a former Collins staffer. “I’m guessing Dems will just dump a bunch of money in if they think [their candidate] has a real shot. But it’s just so little time.”
The other GOP attack line has been to associate all of the prospective nominees with Platner, especially those who campaigned with him, but also Democrats who waited until the rape allegations to call for him to step down.
“If you have a D beside your name in Maine, and you did not specifically, almost like John Fetterman, say this guy is bad news, then we’re going to hold people accountable for that because you didn’t condemn him,” said Kristina Parker, communications director for the Maine GOP.
Seemingly mindful of that tactic, Jackson and other Senate hopefuls have sought to appeal to Platner’s base of support while swearing off his endorsement.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the counterpart to the NRSC, released a statement after Platner’s exit promising to “work tirelessly to ensure the new Democratic nominee has the infrastructure and resources to immediately turn their focus to the general election,” attacking Collins for helping to confirm conservative Supreme Court justices and tying her to President Donald Trump.
The Collins campaign, for its part, has kept a low profile throughout the drama, other than releasing a statement that denounced the rape allegations against Platner as “appalling.” And it has sparingly attacked Platner throughout the campaign, choosing instead to focus on her own record across five terms in the Senate.
“I think she’s always run on her record and what she’s delivered for Maine,” said the former Collins staffer. “So, I don’t think that’s really changed. She’s very much results over rhetoric.”
MAINE DEMOCRATS WALK A TIGHTROPE: REJECT PLATNER WHILE COURTING HIS VOTERS
Instead, Republican outside groups are preparing to spend millions of dollars to define the eventual opponent on her behalf. The super PAC Pine Tree Results pulled its anti-Platner ads and is expected to deploy as much as $8 million on negative advertising once Maine Democrats select a new nominee, according to Axios.
Reliable polling has yet to emerge so soon after Platner dropped out, but one survey commissioned by a pro-Shah group found all of the Democratic front-runners, including Jackson and Bellows, tied or within a point of Collins.