This story is part of a series of monthly snapshots from the Washington Examiner, titled Midterm Countdown, gauging the state of the 2026 election cycle. Scroll down to the bottom of the story for the latest prediction market odds of who is going to win.
America’s 250th anniversary is giving President Donald Trump a reason to get back in front of voters for campaign-style rallies focused on love of country and patriotism.
The question is whether those displays of red, white, and blue, and Trump’s tendency to put himself at the center of them, can move voters on Election Day and help Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate.
From Mount Rushmore to the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in North Dakota to the National Mall, most of the big events are taking place outside of the 2026 battleground states. The festivities are also taking place four months before the fall elections, limiting their impact as a motivator for Trump’s GOP base.
The events nonetheless give the president a bully pulpit from which he can offer competing visions for the country — one he has used to cast Democrats as communists and un-American, seizing on a spate of progressive victories in blue-state primaries.
Democrats, in turn, have dismissed the spectacle as a Trump-focused vanity project. The president’s likeness appears on much of the anniversary’s commemorative materials, including a limited-edition passport, and he was criticized for a UFC event at the White House that doubled as his 80th birthday party.
The events come as Republicans try to turn the page on the Iran war and congressional turmoil surrounding Trump’s signature election bill, the SAVE America Act. Iran, in particular, has overshadowed Republicans’ domestic agenda, raising fears of a blue wave this fall.
The DSA midterm cycle? GOP finds its message
Trump and Republicans are ramping up efforts to tie Democrats to a growing wave of progressive primary victories, using the wins to argue the party is moving sharply to the left ahead of the midterm elections.
While Trump has long sought to cast Democrats as beholden to the left wing, Republicans are increasingly viewing recent insurgent victories as an opportunity to sharpen that argument and frame the party as out of step with mainstream voters.
Trump escalated that rhetoric this week, arguing the recent victories reflect a broader ideological shift within the Democratic Party.
“They use the word ‘social democrat’ because it sounds so nice, but it’s really communism you’re talking about,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office when asked about the string of left-wing primary wins.
“I think it’s the biggest threat to our nation there is, maybe since our founding,” he added. “That includes World War I, World War II, Sept. 11. It includes the Pearl Harbor attack.”
Progressive and Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidates have gained momentum in races across the country following Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s victory in New York last year. The trend has handed Republicans new political targets.
GOP critics have seized on a deleted post from Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner in which he said he “got older and became a communist,” while Democratic nominee Darializa Avila Chevalier has faced scrutiny over past social media posts that included favorable references to communists.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) echoed those concerns after several left-wing candidates advanced in New York primaries, warning that communism is now “on our own shores.”
“It is a very serious time,” Johnson said during a news conference. “Every American needs to wake up and understand the threat.”
“The Marxists have nominated some of the most radical candidates to ever run for office, and they’re running for Congress,” he added. “The insurgent Left is on the rise.”
Democrats have dismissed the attacks as a recycled GOP talking point that voters have rejected before.
“It doesn’t work, so I think that they can try, they can put as much energy as they like into that,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) told reporters on Tuesday. “The year I won, we also picked up 40 Democratic seats in the House, and that included a large terrain of swing districts, so if they want to pursue an unsuccessful strategy, I welcome it.”
Gas prices ease as economic anxiety lingers
Gas prices have dropped sharply in the weeks since the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, surprising analysts who had warned drivers could be in for a summer of soaring fuel costs.
The decline is offering motorists some relief after weeks of pressure at the pump, though the break remains limited. Even after slipping below $4 a gallon, the national average is still nearly $1 higher than the $2.98 consumers were paying before the Iran conflict began in late February.
Trump has pointed to the drop in oil prices as evidence that broader economic relief may be coming, telling Americans that crude has “come tumbling down” even as many drivers are still waiting for a more meaningful break.
“The stock market has gone through the roof, and oil has come tumbling down,” Trump said at the G7 summit. “I guess it’s in the low $70s now. That’s amazing.”
The price drop also appears to be easing some inflation concerns. Consumer confidence ticked up in June after weeks of anxiety tied to the conflict, though people remain cautious as worries about jobs and prices persist. Despite that gloomier outlook, consumers have largely kept spending, helping support economic growth.
“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist of the Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month. However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably.”
Supreme Court eases campaign finance restrictions ahead of midterm elections
The Supreme Court swept away long-standing federal limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with candidates on Tuesday, a landmark ruling expected to reshape campaign fundraising and spending ahead of the midterm elections.
The decision is poised to hand candidates and party committees far greater influence over millions of dollars in election spending, particularly in competitive House and Senate races. Political operatives in both parties expect the ruling to accelerate the flow of money into campaigns and intensify the barrage of television and digital ads that already dominate election season.
In a 6-3 ruling split along ideological lines, the Supreme Court determined that federal caps on coordinated spending between candidates and political parties violate constitutional free speech protections. Writing for the conservative majority, Justice Brett Kavanaugh said the restrictions imposed a significant burden on political expression and argued that lifting them could strengthen the role of political parties in elections.
The ruling is expected to benefit Republicans, who have historically relied more heavily on wealthy donors capable of contributing large sums to party committees. Democrats, who leaned heavily on small-dollar fundraising in recent election cycles, warned the decision would further expand the influence of megadonors and wealthy political networks in federal campaigns.
Republicans quickly celebrated the decision as a victory for political speech and party infrastructure.
“A massive win for the First Amendment that gives power back to political parties over dark money Super PACs,” said Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), who is expected to become the chairman of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm for the 2028 cycle. “Voters deserve to hear directly from candidates, not shady, nameless outside groups.”
Democrats, meanwhile, warned the ruling would accelerate the influence of wealthy donors and special interests in federal elections.
“Today’s decision eviscerates one of the last fragile guardrails on coordinated political spending and will unleash a new arms race of campaign spending, bringing in even more special interest money to our elections,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said.
One race where the impact could be felt quickly is North Carolina’s high-profile Senate contest between former Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. While Cooper entered the race with a strong fundraising operation, the decision now gives national Republicans significantly more flexibility to direct party money into helping Whatley.
“The RNC has been stockpiling their money because they knew their former chairman Michael Whatley would need to get bailed out,” Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen said in a statement. “Whatley’s elite DC connections and party loyalty means he’s first in line for the RNC’s $120 million war chest. The Supreme Court just guaranteed that this race will be among — if not the — most expensive races in the country.”
What the prediction markets say
Prediction markets are increasingly viewed as a real-time gauge of political sentiment. Unlike traditional polling, they aggregate real-money bets on political outcomes, often capturing shifts in sentiment quicker than surveys.
At this stage in the 2026 cycle, Kalshi gives Democrats an 82% chance of retaking the House, while Republicans have a 60% chance of keeping control of the Senate.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is slightly more bullish on Democrats, giving the party an 84% chance of retaking the House and a 57% chance of winning the Senate.