Conventional wisdom in presidential politics long relied on the “lane theory” to game out how a winning candidate could capture their party’s nomination by appealing to a certain specific subset of voters. If that theory still holds, putative 2028 Democratic candidate Rahm Emanuel has an early advantage — in the bike lane.
Emanuel, on June 5, took the bicycle lane around New Hampshire as part of a three-day tour of the early voting state, making the longtime Democratic official one of the earliest to openly talk up a prospective 2028 White House bid in what’s expected to be a crowded 2028 presidential primary field. A group ranging from likely candidates such as Govs. Gavin Newsom (CA) and Josh Shapiro (PA), to Democrats who have dipped their toes into presidential primary waters but haven’t been as visible.
One thing about the still-forming field is clear — it will be full of candidates brimming with denunciation and harsh criticism of President Donald Trump, a reviled figure over his two nonconsecutive terms (and in between). Except for Emanuel, at least to an extent. His New Hampshire bike trip aimed to announce and promote an array of policy positions, not just spew hatred against Trump.
Emanuel was a senior adviser to the president for nearly six years in Bill Clinton’s administration. Then, a House member representing a Chicago-based seat for another six years. That included helming House Democrats’ campaign arm in their 2006 win of the majority for the first time in 12 years, and then a stint in Democratic leadership. Incoming President Barack Obama tapped Emanuel as chief of staff, and after nearly two years, Emanuel won the Chicago mayoralty and held the office for eight years. This was followed by a diplomatic role in the Biden administration as U.S. ambassador to Japan, with lucrative stints in investment banking between government roles.
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Now, Emanuel is raising money for a New Hampshire nonprofit organization that provides bicycles to underprivileged children, in addition to raising his profile. He attended a Democratic Party event in North Hampton before mounting his bike for the tour.
The tour comes as Emanuel tries to differentiate himself from other Democrats considering a run for their party’s presidential nomination. Part of that is an attempt to brand himself as the candidate of policy positions, including last week’s announcement of a “grand bargain” on education reform.
Emanuel has also written a plethora of opinion pieces, including one in March explaining his national security policy platform and another in May calling for military reform.
A source familiar with Emanuel told the Washington Examiner the former mayor “feels very strongly that we have an education emergency, and no one is talking about how to solve it.”
“The national conversation is so badly warped by Trump and Beltway politics,” the source said. “So from a policy perspective, everything flows from that, and he wants to focus on policies and ideas.”
Although a policy-driven campaign did not help Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in her 2020 Democratic primary, Emanuel’s approach has been welcomed by some Democrats wanting the party’s message to be more than just anti-Trump rhetoric.
“Americans are pessimistic about the future and are hungry for real solutions,” said Colin Seeberger, a senior adviser at the Center for American Progress.
Also central to Emanuel’s tire-kicking campaign phase is the issue of age. A few months ago, Emanuel, 66, said there should be a mandatory retirement age of 75 for presidents, Cabinet officials, members of Congress, and federal judges. Emanuel has said that to comply with his proposed age limit, he would only be able to be president for a single four-year term if elected in 2028.
It’s a sensitive issue in Democratic politics, with Biden forced from the 2024 race against Trump after a desultory debate performance, which capped years of doubt over whether the then-81-year-old commander in chief was fit for another term.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics Director Neil Levesque told the Washington Examiner that Emanuel’s bike trip comes as the former Chicago mayor has the 2028 stage mostly to himself.
“The bike trip is another opportunity to be placing himself in front of voters in a way that creates connection and attention without a typical podium speech,” Levesque said.
Emanuel is not the first presidential candidate to take a different mode of transport around New Hampshire, with University of New Hampshire politics professor Dante Scala remembering how Republican presidential candidate Lamar Alexander hiked around the Granite State in 1996. Alexander, by that point, had been Tennessee governor for eight years and then U.S. education secretary. Alexander lost the 1996 New Hampshire primary to Pat Buchanan and that year’s GOP nomination to Bob Dole. Alexander later served as an 18-year senator from Tennessee.
But for Scala, Emanuel is embarking on his trip far too early for New Hampshire voters to care.
“You would be hard-pressed to find activists who care much at this point,” Scala told the Washington Examiner. “They’re focused more on the midterms.”
To that end, despite his best attempts, Emanuel is not putting a dent in early hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary polls.
According to polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, former Vice President Kamala Harris has an early, likely name-identification-driven edge, leading what is anticipated to be a large group of Democratic presidential candidates with an average of 27% support.
Newsom has an average of 18% support, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg has 13%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has 12%.
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Other potential candidates are only polling in single digits, a good 18 months before the first votes will be cast.
“Rahm is an interesting guy who has positions that will be broadly appealing inside and outside of the Democratic base,” said Christopher Hahn, a political analyst and former senior Democratic Senate staffer. “I just hope Rahm trained for hills.”
Naomi Lim (@naomitlim) is a White House reporter at the Washington Examiner.