Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary in Iowa is shaping up as an early test of whether running against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) resonates with the party’s base in a state President Donald Trump has carried three times.
While national Democrats have quietly signaled a preference for state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls has built much of his campaign around arguing Democratic leadership is out of touch with voters.
Wahls has repeatedly tied Turek to Schumer and criticized the outside groups backing his campaign, framing himself as an independent-minded Democrat who could better connect with swing voters in a state Democrats have struggled to win in recent years.
“It is going to be a hell of a lot easier to win back the voters whose trust this party has lost with a candidate who can look them in the eye and tell them with a straight face: I don’t owe Chuck Schumer or anybody else in Washington, D.C., a damn thing,” Wahls told supporters at a campaign stop in Mason City last month.
Neither Schumer nor the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has formally endorsed in the race, but Democratic-aligned groups have poured millions into boosting Turek, fueling speculation among Iowa Democrats that national party leaders see him as the stronger general election candidate.
Schumer’s office has largely avoided engaging publicly in the primary. In a statement previously provided to the Washington Post, Schumer spokeswoman Allison Biasotti said the Democratic leader remains focused on “taking back the Senate to stop Donald Trump’s reign of devastation, chaos, and high costs for American families.”
One elected Iowa Democrat, speaking on background to discuss intraparty dynamics candidly, downplayed the idea that Schumer himself has become the defining issue in the race.
“I don’t know how much Schumer being injected into it matters,” the Iowa Democrat said, arguing that Turek’s support from former Sen. Tom Harkin and disability advocates likely carried far more weight with many Iowa voters.
Turek has also secured backing from several prominent Iowa Democrats, most notably Harkin, the state’s last Democratic senator. Tom Harkin, who has long-standing ties to both candidates, even officiated Wahls’s wedding.
Recent polling suggests that strategy may be working. After trailing Wahls earlier this year, Turek has surged in the final stretch of the race. RealClearPolitics polling averages show Turek leading by roughly 20 points in the two most recent public surveys after Wahls held double-digit leads in February and March.
The Iowa Democrat suggested Harkin’s involvement may have helped shift the race, particularly among older voters familiar with his work harnessing disability rights legislation.
“You just take for granted that you’ve always had a disability act,” the Democrat said, referring to the Americans with Disabilities Act championed by Harkin. “I think parents and elderly voters probably relate to that more.”
Turek has also benefited from a massive outside spending advantage fueled by VoteVets, a Democratic super PAC focused on veterans and military families. Although Turek did not serve in the military himself, he has spoken publicly about being born with spina bifida, which he attributes to his father’s exposure to Agent Orange during the Vietnam War.
According to AdImpact, VoteVets has spent nearly $10 million backing Turek in the primary, dwarfing the combined spending of both candidates’ own campaigns.
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said Wahls’s antiestablishment message could still resonate with some voters frustrated with Washington leadership.
“Voters are in a very hostile mood,” Bannon told the Washington Examiner. “They’re in a very antiestablishment mood. They’re not looking for guidance from D.C. Democrats.”
Bannon cautioned that Turek still appears to hold the advantage but said Wahls’s attacks on Schumer could help energize voters seeking candidates who are more willing to challenge party leadership.
“That kind of antiestablishment rhetoric is very powerful in today’s political climate,” he said.
Josh Marcus-Blank, a Democratic strategist with experience in Senate and gubernatorial races, said Democratic primary voters currently appear more focused on defeating Trump and addressing economic concerns than internal party battles.
“I think there’s always interest in running against Washington and running against politicians more generally,” Marcus-Blank said. “But Democratic primary voters are looking a lot more for their candidates to be focused on Trump and the economic pain people are feeling more so than they are on Democratic leadership.”
Marcus-Blank argued Turek’s electability message has helped soften some of the ideological divides in the race, particularly because Democrats are increasingly prioritizing candidates they believe can compete statewide in difficult territory.
“He’s the one who has won in a Trump district,” Marcus-Blank said. “People want someone who can win.”
The elected Iowa Democrat also said many Democrats inside the state remain deeply focused on electability, particularly given how difficult Iowa has become for Democrats at the federal level.
“I don’t see either one of them beating Hinson,” the Democrat said, referring to GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson. “She’s got the money, she’s good on camera, and Iowa is still a very red state.”
Still, the Iowa Democrat said Democrats could remain competitive in some House races, particularly in districts represented by Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn.
The Iowa contest is the first in a string of Democratic Senate primaries this summer expected to test how much appetite Democratic voters have for candidates openly skeptical of party leadership in Washington.
In Michigan, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow has pledged not to support Schumer for leader if elected, while Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has declined to commit to backing him.
The broader dynamic has intensified scrutiny of Schumer’s standing within the party following setbacks in other races. In Maine, Schumer-backed Gov. Janet Mills exited the Senate race after a rocky rollout, clearing the field for insurgent Democrat Graham Platner despite a string of politically damaging controversies.
Bannon said frustrations with party leadership could eventually create larger problems for Schumer if more antiestablishment candidates win Senate nominations this cycle.
“There are already some Democrats in the Senate that are gunning for him,” Bannon said. “If a sizable number of antiestablishment candidates end up being added to the roster of Democratic senators, there will be a fight over the party leadership.”
Schumer has also faced growing dissatisfaction among Democratic voters nationally. A March Economist/YouGov poll found Democrats were more likely to disapprove than approve of his performance as Senate minority leader.
Wahls rose to prominence in Democratic politics after delivering a viral speech as a teenager advocating same-sex marriage rights. Raised by lesbian parents, he later became Iowa Senate minority leader before being ousted in a caucus revolt that replaced him with Sen. Pam Jochum.
On the campaign trail, Wahls has leaned heavily into populist messaging, casting himself as a critic of political and economic elites.
ZACH WAHLS’S TRAVEL AND HOTEL SPENDING DRAWS SCRUTINY AMID POPULIST MESSAGE
Turek, meanwhile, has centered his biography and electoral record. A former Paralympian who won two gold medals in wheelchair basketball, Turek represents a western Iowa district that Trump carried. Born with spina bifida, Turek underwent 21 surgeries by age 12.
Outside groups in both parties are already preparing for an expensive general election battle. Senate Leadership Fund, the main Republican super PAC, has reserved roughly $29 million in advertising in Iowa, while Senate Majority PAC has reserved about $13 million on the Democratic side.