Republican Mike Rogers maintains a polling advantage over his Democratic opponents duking it out in a messy primary for the open Michigan Senate seat.
But the lead of the former Michigan congressman and Trump-backed presumptive GOP nominee remains within the margins of error in recent surveys, presenting a statistical dead heat for the battleground seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).
The polling edge comes as Rogers and the three Democratic contenders, former local health official Abdul el Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), ascend on Mackinac Island this week for Michigan’s annual Mackinac Policy Conference. The event draws current and former heavyweight politicos from across the country, including lawmakers, governors, and Cabinet officials.
It also comes as el Sayed’s support has surged among Democrats over the past several months, allowing him to lap his opponents in the most recent survey by double digits and draw fears from establishment-aligned figures that his more progressive stances could hurt their general election chances.
All four Senate candidates are slated to speak Thursday at the conference, and both parties are offering previews of the political rhetoric they plan to invoke.
“Michigan Republicans at every level should be pressed this week on how they’re standing up to Trump in the wake of his harmful economic agenda,” Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel said in a statement.
The Rogers campaign has said his edges in the polls show that “Michiganders have made clear that they’re ready for change this November.”
“The Democrats had their chance and cost us all–from driving out jobs to spiking housing costs and failing our schools,” campaign spokeswoman Alyssa Brouillet said in a recent statement.
Rogers has so far outperformed President Donald Trump’s slipping ratings in the Great Lakes State, a virtual must-win for Democrats in the November midterm elections if they hope to flip control of the upper chamber.
In a pair of separate polls released this month, Rogers outpaces all three Democrats in head-to-head matchups ranging from 1 to 5 points. He eclipsed el Sayed by 5 points and 1 point; McMorrow by 2 points in both surveys; and Stevens by 2 points and 3 points.
One poll, from Mitchell Research & Communications, showed el Sayed leading Democrats by 10 points at 28%, Stevens at 18%, and McMorrow at 17%.
Another survey, conducted by the Glengariff Group for the Detroit Regional Chamber, clocked Trump at his lowest job approval rating in Michigan in a year at 37% over frustrations with the economy and affordability. Trump received 44% approval in the group’s poll from May 2025.
As the Aug. 4 Democratic primary approaches, more establishment-aligned Democrats who favor Stevens fear that El-Sayed could be too far left for a general electorate and jeopardize the party’s chances.
RETIRING MICHIGAN SENATOR CONCERNED ABOUT DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY RACE TO SUCCEED HIM
Peters, the outgoing Democratic incumbent, expressed concern about his party’s candidates keeping their disagreements civil as the contested primary draws near.
“Our hope is that it just doesn’t get too acrimonious,” Peters recently told the Washington Examiner. “And unfortunately, a lot of primaries, especially if they’re close, get a little chippy at the end. I’m encouraging everyone to try to avoid that, but it’s not easy.”