Kentucky voters will head to the ballot boxes on Tuesday for the 2026 primary elections, weighing in on hundreds of state races and several federal races with major national implications.
Across the state, Kentuckians will weigh in on the primaries for all six U.S. House seats, all state House seats, half of the state’s Senate seats, and one U.S. Senate seat. The most-watched races nationally will be in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, which will be a major test of President Donald Trump’s endorsement power, and the race to fill retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) seat.
Between Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-KY) survival bid against Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein and the open Republican Senate primary to fill McConnell’s seat, eyes will surely be on the Bluegrass State’s primary returns. Here’s what to know ahead of Tuesday.
Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District: Massie vs. Gallrein
Kentucky’s most-watched race will be the GOP primary in the state’s 4th Congressional District, as the incumbent Massie seeks to hang on to the seat he has held since 2012. He is facing a heated primary challenge from Trump-endorsed Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL captain.
Gallrein has dramatically cut down the odds of Massie retaining his seat this year — the limited polling in the race shows Massie just single digits ahead of Gallrein. The retired Navy SEAL captain’s challenge is unprecedented for Massie, as he has won every primary since entering Congress with over 70% of the vote.
The Kentucky congressman has voiced his own concerns that he could lose to Gallrein due to the sheer amount of negative ad spending against him. Massie says the spending is coming from billionaires and pro-Israel groups such as the Republican Jewish Coalition and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, who are upset about his repeated votes against foreign spending.
The real challenge in the district will be whether Massie’s uncompromising libertarian values and Kentucky name recognition can withstand a Trump-endorsed candidate backed by MAGA’s cash flow. In neighboring Indiana, Trump’s endorsements of challengers taking on incumbents who voted against redistricting in the state senate’s GOP primaries proved successful earlier in May.
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The 4th District, covering northern Kentucky, is solidly red, meaning whoever wins the GOP primary election will likely win in November.
Open Senate race
McConnell, party-builder of the Kentucky GOP, is retiring after what will be 42 years and seven terms in the upper chamber. His retirement marks an opportunity for a new direction for the party, with the open GOP primary bringing three candidates who have unwaveringly backed Trump, who has often sparred with McConnell. There is also a competitive Democratic primary, but the Cook Political Report rates the race as solidly Republican.
On the Republican side, things cleared up in the formerly three-candidate race when Trump chimed in with a Kentucky Derby weekend endorsement for Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY). Businessman Nate Morris dropped his bid for the seat and endorsed Barr himself after the announcement. However, despite Trump chiming in, former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron is not giving up his bid.
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In the final weeks of the race, Cameron has attempted to walk a tightrope of projecting his unwavering support for Trump while disagreeing with his endorsement of Barr and separating himself from his competitor.
The latest Emerson College GOP primary poll has Barr in the lead by single digits, with the most recent pro-Barr PAC poll showing Barr with a double-digit lead over Cameron.
On the Democratic side, Charles Booker, a former state representative and 2022 Senate candidate, has taken the lead in most polls, followed by retired Marine and 2020 Senate candidate Amy McGrath. But the support for the two leading candidates was outnumbered by the undecided voters in the last Emerson College poll.
Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District: Race to replace Barr
Of the other House races in the Bluegrass State, the 6th Congressional District, covering Lexington and its surrounding area, is the only other open seat. Barr is leaving the seat to run for the Senate.
Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have endorsed former Kentucky state Sen. Ralph Alvarado for the job. Alvarado, also a former Tennessee health commissioner, will face off against candidates such as state Rep. Ryan Dotson and pharmaceutical executive Greg Plucinski in the Republican primary.
Despite encompassing the more liberal-leaning Lexington, the district has a significant suburban and rural population, and the GOP has dominated the seat for years since Barr won in 2012. Trump has also carried the district in every presidential election he has run in.
The Democratic side of the 6th District race is quite crowded and has drawn several high-profile endorsements, but the Cook Political Report still sees the district as a solid Republican seat, given Trump’s 15-point win there in 2024.
The Democratic field includes former state representative Cherlynn Stevenson, endorsed by Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman; former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo, endorsed by the Lexington Herald-Leader’s editorial board; and former Lexington City Councilman David Kloiber.
Notable state legislature races
Kentucky’s state legislature is dominated by Republicans, with 80% of the state House and 84% of the state Senate controlled by the GOP. Its stranglehold on the state legislature is crucial as the body battles Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY).
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The Republican Party is widely expected to keep its majority in both chambers, but nonetheless, there are still a few interesting primary races to watch.
In 2026, all 100 state representatives are up for reelection, and 19 of the 28 state senators are up for reelection.
Nine incumbent representatives are not seeking reelection, including seven Republicans and two Democrats.
One of the most closely watched state House elections will be held in District 30, in the Louisville area. District 30’s Democratic state representative, Daniel Grossberg, is facing assault allegations and is being challenged by several members of his own party. No Republicans are running in the district.
On the state Senate side, eyes will be on the open race in the state’s 14th District, where Republican state Sen. Jimmy Higdon, who has served in the upper chamber since 2009, is retiring.
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There are six Republicans and two Democrats running for the 14th District, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader. In the GOP primary, Brian Bayers, Stephen Carney, Ben Mudd, Dallas Robinson, Lynne Shelburne, and James Victery are running. In the Democratic primary, Malcolm W. Jones and Carrie Gribbins Truitt are running.
Incumbent Republican state Sens. Brandon Smith, Matt Deneen, and Julie Raque Adams are being challenged by members of their own party.