Secretary of State Marco Rubio‘s success in charming the Washington press corps this week has moved prediction markets, with Kalshi now showing the Florida Republican as the most likely candidate to win the 2028 presidential election.
On Tuesday, Rubio slid past Vice President JD Vance as the betting favorite for 2028 on Kalshi. Rubio leads Vance 18% to 17%. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is in a close third at 16%.
According to Kalshi, however, Vance still has better odds of winning the GOP nomination in 2028. In that market, Vance leads Rubio, 37% to 28%. Kalshi notes, though, that Rubio’s stock has risen from single digits earlier this year.
Kalshi’s rival, Polymarket, still gives Vance better odds of winning. Polymarket has Vance at 19.6%, Newsom at 16.7%, and Rubio in a close third at 15%.
Rubio’s rise in the prediction markets follows his highly praised fill-in appearance as White House press secretary on Tuesday. The secretary took the podium to defend President Donald Trump’s Iran war before a press corps typically considered hostile to Leavitt and other administration officials. However, the journalists appeared at ease with America’s top diplomat.
The charm offensive was benefited Rubio peppering in a number of jokes during his hourlong appearance. Unlike Leavitt or Trump, the secretary earned a number of audible laughs while poking fun at the press corps itself.
“So many damn outlets here,” he chuckled shortly into taking questions. “I don’t know who you all are.”
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Rubio even joked about a viral video from over the weekend showing him DJ’ing at a wedding.
“You’re not ready for that,” he slyly responded when asked to reveal his “DJ name.”