Former Sen. John Sununu is widening his financial advantage in New Hampshire’s Republican Senate primary, fueling fresh questions about whether rival Scott Brown can keep it competitive as national Republicans are increasingly anxious to start the general election.
The growing divide comes as Republicans view New Hampshire as a critical battleground in their effort to expand their Senate majority, even as Democrats argue the political environment continues to favor them amid President Donald Trump’s declining approval ratings. Trump narrowly lost the state by less than 3 percentage points in 2024.
Sununu, a former congressman and senator endorsed by Trump, raised more than $1 million during the first quarter and entered May with nearly $1.9 million cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Brown, a former U.S. senator from Massachusetts and Trump’s ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa, raised $321,000 and reported $783,000 cash on hand during the same period. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas brought in $3.3 million and started the month with $4.2 million in the bank.
Despite trailing in fundraising and polling, Brown insisted his campaign is following a long-term strategy rooted in grassroots outreach and retail politics, arguing New Hampshire elections are rarely decided this early.
“I expected it to be a battle,” Brown said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “When you’re going up against the well-known family name and fighting against all the powers that be, it reminds me a lot of 2010 when I basically was the guy who was just a state senator and ended up winning after being down 41 points.”
Brown brushed aside concerns about spending more money than he raised during the quarter, saying his campaign remains on track and well-positioned organizationally despite the fundraising disparity.
“We have a budget. We’re sticking to that budget. We have a plan. We’re executing the plan,” Brown said. “We’re fully staffed up, we have plenty of signs and bumper stickers and volunteers, so we feel very comfortable where we’re at.”
He also argued it is still too early to draw firm conclusions about the race, pointing to New Hampshire’s history of late-deciding voters and saying more engagement typically comes once winter ends and campaigning intensifies.
“New Hampshire historically breaks the last month of the campaign almost in every election,” Brown said. “We’re going to continue to meet people and do the things that we’ve been doing.”
As evidence that his message is gaining traction, Brown pointed to recent grassroots events that he said have exceeded expectations, including town halls, volunteer sign standouts, and door-knocking operations.
“We expected 90 to 100 people. We got over 200 people,” Brown said of a recent town hall. “Almost everybody there wanted a sign, took a bumper sticker.”
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the open seat as “Lean D.” But Republicans see an opening after early polling showed Pappas and Sununu essentially tied in a hypothetical general election matchup.
An Emerson College Polling survey released in March found Pappas leading Sununu 45% to 44%, while Pappas led Brown by a wider 48% to 39%. The same survey showed Sununu dominating the Republican primary field, taking nearly 48% support among likely GOP primary voters compared to Brown’s 19%, though roughly one-third of voters remained undecided.
In February, Trump endorsed Sununu over Brown, backing the former senator despite Sununu’s history as a Trump critic. Republicans viewed the endorsement as a major boost for Sununu as the party looks to flip the Democratic-held seat following retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-NH) decision not to seek reelection.
Brown suggested Trump’s decision to endorse Sununu may have ultimately helped his own candidacy, arguing his outsider image and willingness to break with the president at times could resonate with New Hampshire independents, who often play a decisive role in statewide races.
“It opened up a new lane for me to get support from the independents who really control the voting here in New Hampshire,” Brown said of Trump’s endorsement of Sununu. “They know that I’m the independent guy.”
National Republicans have also begun pouring resources into the race. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), announced plans to spend $17 million in New Hampshire as Republicans try to expand their Senate majority.
Still, several Republican strategists in New Hampshire suggested Sununu has already effectively consolidated much of the GOP establishment behind him, aided by Trump’s endorsement and his family’s long-standing political profile in the state.
“I think Sununu has secured the vast majority of Republican primary voters,” longtime New Hampshire GOP strategist Dave Carney said.
Carney pointed to Sununu’s fundraising edge, polling advantage, and institutional support, arguing Brown has failed to demonstrate he can build a sustainable statewide campaign.
“He hasn’t gotten a single endorsement since this race started,” Carney said. “The voters are pressuring him by dropping their support.”
Veteran Republican consultant Mike Dennehy similarly argued consolidation around Sununu is already occurring “by default” because of the former senator’s strength.
“It would obviously be better for Sununu if Scott Brown would just drop out,” Dennehy said. “But he does not seem to have any intention of doing that.”
Dennehy also questioned whether Brown has the financial footing necessary to sustain a competitive statewide operation through the primary.
“If he’s hoping to be competitive, he needs to raise $2 million to $3 million,” Dennehy said. “But he hasn’t been able to do that in any quarter, so it’s just not going to happen.”
Carney also argued that Brown had baggage from his ties to neighboring Massachusetts. He said New Hampshire voters remain deeply skeptical of Massachusetts politicians, describing it as both a cultural and political divide.
“Nobody here in New Hampshire thinks, ‘Man, we need more of that here,’” Carney said of Massachusetts politics.
Brown pushed back on attacks questioning his ties to New Hampshire, arguing voters view him as a longtime member of the community despite his past service representing neighboring Massachusetts in the Senate.
“We’ve been homeowner taxpayers since 1990,” Brown said. “People get it. They don’t really mention it, quite honestly.”
Republicans also believe Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s (R-NH) popularity could boost the party downballot, with some strategists pointing to her fundraising strength as an advantage for Sununu in a potential general election matchup.
“Republicans have their best Republican candidate for U.S. Senate since 2010,” Dennehy said. “They also have someone who can raise enough money to be competitive for the first time since 2010.”
Sununu launched his comeback bid in January after previously serving three terms in the House and one term in the Senate before losing reelection to Shaheen in 2008. His father, John H. Sununu, and brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu, both served as governor of New Hampshire.
Brown represented Massachusetts in the Senate from 2010 to 2013 and unsuccessfully challenged Shaheen in New Hampshire in 2014.
TRUMP ENDORSES ‘AMERICA FIRST PATRIOT’ JOHN SUNUNU IN NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE PRIMARY
New Hampshire voters will head to the polls for the primary on Sept. 8, less than two months before the Nov. 3 general election.
Sununu’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.