Red or blue? GOP and Democrats eye next gerrymander targets after Supreme Court ruling

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The Supreme Court’s striking down of race-based redistricting in Louisiana has begun the next stage of the gerrymandering fight between Republicans and Democrats.

Republicans are eyeing new maps in Tennessee and Alabama, while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) sent his right-hand man, Rep. Joe Morelle (D-NY), to Albany, New York, to discuss moving forward with redrawing district lines.

The latest blitz is a result of the Supreme Court’s landmark ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which opened the door for multiple Southern red states to redraw their own maps. Louisiana Republicans are expected to begin creating a new map as soon as this week, after the Supreme Court ruled that its decision should take effect immediately. 

Meanwhile, Tennessee met on Tuesday for a special legislative session called by Gov. Bill Lee (R) last week after the ruling. Republicans currently hold an 8-1 advantage under the current map. 

“We owe it to Tennesseans to ensure our congressional districts accurately reflect the will of Tennessee voters,” Lee said in a statement announcing the move, which also called for any changes to the map to be “enacted as soon as possible.”

A map proposed by Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), who is running for Tennessee governor, on April 29 would potentially give Republicans all nine seats, nixing the sole Democratic seat held by Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN).

Alabama’s state legislature similarly convened on Monday for a special session requested by Gov. Kay Ivey (R) to discuss drawing new district lines. Under the current makeup, Alabama Republicans hold five House seats, while Democrats hold two. 

In 2023, the Supreme Court ordered Alabama lawmakers to draw a second congressional district with a sizable black population, citing Section 2 of the now-weakened Voting Rights Act. The state is currently prohibited by a federal court from redistricting until after the 2030 census, an order Alabama is seeking to have vacated in light of the Supreme Court’s decision.

Alabama will be unable to enact new maps until the courts rule on its request. It’s unclear whether Republicans will use the 6-1 map thrown out by the Supreme Court in Allen v. Milligan, or whether lawmakers will move to eliminate both majority-Black districts held by Reps. Shomari Figures (D-AL) and Terri Sewell (D-AL).

But Democrats have also rushed to explore their options to pick up more House seats. Jeffries is pushing for New York to redraw its map, even sending Morelle to Albany on Tuesday to meet with state leaders and Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has backed redistricting.

“This is just the beginning,” Jeffries said. “Across the nation, we will sue, we will redraw, and we will win. House Democrats will not allow a MAGA majority to be built on rigged maps and the dilution of Black voting strength.”

Jeffries predicted the map wars would “end poorly for Republican extremists.”

However, because of a state constitutional amendment passed in 2014, it is unlikely that any effort in New York to redraw congressional districts would be implemented before 2028. 

When asked whether he wanted New York to allow mid-decade redistricting or to implement broader changes, such as removing anti-gerrymandering provisions in the state constitution, Morelle demurred, saying that was a decision for state lawmakers.

BY THE NUMBERS: HOW MANY SEATS HAS EACH PARTY GAINED IN REDISTRICTING?

“Look, I voted for independent redistricting,” Morelle said. “I believe in independent redistricting. I just don’t believe in it for some of the states, and not all of the states. And what’s clear is in the South in particular, those state legislators have made the decision that they’re going to do the most partisan gerrymandering necessary.”

Nineteen Democrats and seven Republicans currently represent New York. Morelle described the conversations between him and state lawmakers as “very constructive” and “very productive.”
Jeffries has also previously floated Illinois, Maryland, and Colorado as possible options to explore further gerrymandering.

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