Virginia voters on Tuesday approved a referendum to redraw the state’s congressional map in a way that would give Democrats a 10-1 advantage, marking the latest front in a nationwide push by both parties to tilt the House battlefield in their favor.
The Associated Press called the race in favor of the referendum at 8:49 p.m. EDT on Tuesday. With 81% of ballots counted, “yes” votes led with 50.3% to 49.7% for “no.”
The proposal allows the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts, a move Democrats say is needed to counter Republican-led redistricting efforts in other states. With the measure now approved, the plan is expected to shift Virginia’s current 6-5 Democratic House majority into a map favoring Democrats in as many as 10 of the state’s 11 districts.
Democrats hold 6 of Virginia’s 11 House seats under the current map, which was created by a bipartisan commission. The new map divides the heavily Democratic northern region, including the Washington, D.C., suburbs, across multiple districts stretching into more conservative areas in the south and west, while also reinforcing Democratic strongholds in Richmond and Hampton Roads.
Under the approved referendum, the new maps will remain in effect through the 2030 election, after which the state will return to its standard redistricting process. Typically, congressional districts are redrawn once every 10 years following the decennial Census.
The Virginia referendum carried clear national stakes, as Republicans hold only a slim House majority and both parties have spent nearly a year locked in a broader redistricting fight nationwide.
A comparable ballot measure backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) passed easily in California last year, moving five Republican-held seats into more Democratic territory. Newsom and Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) pushed similar efforts to counterbalance Republican-led redistricting moves, after President Donald Trump urged Texas lawmakers to redraw maps in a way that could net the GOP up to five additional seats. Missouri and North Carolina have also adjusted their maps, each resulting in the loss of a Democratic-held district.
“This year we saw a president say that he’s entitled to more seats in Congress because, of course, they all see that the wave is coming,” Spanberger said, speaking to reporters earlier this week.
Spending on the referendum surged to nearly $100 million, with about 95% of the funding coming from dark money groups. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Virginians for Fair Elections, which backed the measure, contributed roughly $64 million, while the opposing group, Virginians for Fair Maps, spent close to $20 million.
Complicating the debate, the referendum asked voters to effectively reverse a constitutional amendment adopted just five years ago, one Democrats had championed to create an independent redistricting process.
“What the ‘yes’ vote represents are unfair maps, and what the ‘no’ vote represents are the maps that were approved by a nonpartisan independent redistricting commission five years ago and created the fairest maps in the country,” former Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin told reporters Monday.
VIRGINIA REDISTRICTING REFERENDUM TIGHTENS INTO DEAD HEAT AS EARLY VOTING SURGES
Adding another layer of uncertainty, the Virginia Supreme Court is expected to weigh in on the measure’s legality after the election, raising the possibility the outcome could ultimately be decided in court. Youngkin has argued the proposal is unconstitutional and urged justices to strike it down.
“The Virginia Supreme Court still has to decide whether this is constitutional, and that process won’t play out until after the vote,” said Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech. “It’s not impossible the court could determine that the ballot language or the legislative process did not comply with state law or the constitution, which could void the entire election.”