Not yet 100 days into her term, Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) is facing a make-or-break vote on a sweeping gerrymandering push that could cement her power or expose early weakness on the national stage.
Virginians will head to the polls on Tuesday to vote on a referendum to redraw the state’s congressional map mid-decade. If successful, Virginia’s current 11-seat congressional delegation would transform from a 6-5 Democratic edge to a 10-1 Democratic lock.
Spanberger has become the public face of the “yes” campaign, despite opposing gerrymandering while in Congress from 2019 to 2023. The governor has defended the high-profile reversal, arguing that President Donald Trump and Republicans started the redistricting fight by redrawing the congressional map in Texas.
Polling shows the “yes” side with a narrow edge and a significant fundraising advantage, but early voting trends suggest a more competitive race. Turnout has been stronger in Republican-leaning rural and exurban regions, while Democratic strongholds in Northern Virginia and urban areas have lagged, creating an electorate that appears older and less urban than usual.
“This map was a clear overreach,” GOP strategist Dennis Lennox told the Washington Examiner. “If it somehow goes down, it’s a significant repudiation of Spanberger and Democrats in the Old Dominion — and a major early defeat for her governorship, which uniquely is one term.”
The high-stakes vote comes as Spanberger’s political footing is already vulnerable amid tumbling approval numbers.
The latest poll from State Navigate shows the governor’s approval rating split down the middle, with 47% of respondents approving of her short tenure and 47% disapproving. This comes just after a Washington Post-Schar School poll taken last month showed a 47%-46% approval-disapproval rating, making Spanberger the most unpopular governor in modern Virginia history after just two months in office.
Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said that Spanberger would be impacted by the referendum either way.
“A win for Democrats on this is a win for Governor Spanberger,” Reinish told the Washington Examiner. “On the flip side, if it comes up short, that could be seen as piling on to her bad numbers, and make it look as if she doesn’t have as much juice or power since she’s broadly associated with this effort and she’s the Democratic governor.”
Reinish compared the effort to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-CA) successful redistricting campaign last year, arguing a win Tuesday would carry similar national implications.
“It will not be solely hers to own in a loss, but certainly I think she would get a lot of bad press, and could see a pile on,” he added.
Saturday marked the final day of early voting in the referendum. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, 1,358,628 early ballots had been cast, compared to 1,485,413 at the same point in the 2025 general election. The early vote is also running roughly 3 percentage points more Republican-leaning than in 2025.
Most political prognosticators say the referendum will come down to which side has the best turnout on Election Day. Yet, even the closeness of the race so far does not have Democrats sweating.
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“I don’t think I’d read too much into, you know, what this means for the midterms, like the clear trend is that Democrats are more engaged and want to come out of the midterms,” Democratic strategist Jared Leopold told the Washington Examiner. “I think that it’s the one exception to the rule where you have greater Republican engagement than in every other special election since January 2025, but I don’t think I wouldn’t worry about the election in November because of it.”
*Samantha-Jo Roth contributed to this story.