President Donald Trump’s latest move in the Iran war, a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, is unlikely to force China into deeper engagement in the conflict but does risk raising tensions with Beijing if the war drags on beyond the White House’s timeline.
To date, China has not taken significant public steps to aid either Iran, its close ally, or the United States in the conflict. While some observers predicted the blockade would push Beijing to pursue a diplomatic resolution more aggressively — particularly given its reliance on Iranian oil — multiple China policy experts and former Trump administration officials told the Washington Examiner the expectation is misplaced.
China, they argue, is structurally positioned to sit this out. With months of petroleum reserves, diversified energy sources, and access to discounted Russian oil, Beijing can absorb short-term disruption without rushing to intervene.
Ambassador John Bolton, who served as one of Trump’s national security advisers during his first term but later became a critic, said China is likely to ride out the blockade rather than step in.
“[China has], according to most reports, four months supply of petroleum, so they can ride out ups and downs. And I think if the Gulf production on all sides was made fully free and open, just like before 1979 or before six weeks ago, for that matter, the price would drop dramatically,” he said in an interview.
Beyond energy concerns, analysts say longer-term strategic interests drive Beijing’s calculus. China has spent years building ties across the Middle East, including with Gulf States that Iran has attacked since the war began, and is unlikely to jeopardize those relationships by getting involved in the conflict.
Lyle Goldstein, the director of Defense Priorities’ Asia Program, claimed that China views the war as “quite disruptive to its economy and also its diplomatic plans.”
“It’s true that China is better insulated from most countries in Asia from the oil shock due to deeper reserves, better balance of energy sources, and also diverse suppliers, including especially Russia that has long wanted to send more oil to China,” he wrote in a statement. “But overall, of course, China sees this vast instability throughout the Middle East as very disruptive.”
But even with those concerns, Goldstein and others caution that disruption alone is unlikely to prompt Chinese intervention.
A former senior Trump administration national security official gave the Washington Examiner a similar assessment of the blockade.
“[China is] very good at playing the waiting game, and I would not see them coming to the table to try to resolve anything, because their economy can withstand six months of a lower supply from Iran, and they know that,” the person said. “For the president, they don’t want to throw him a lifeline here. If he’s doing something that is hurting them, they’re not going to cry uncle, because they don’t need to.”
“The Iranians are the longest negotiators on the planet,” the source added.
That dynamic underscores a broader mismatch in timelines. Trump is facing pressure to bring the conflict to a close, while both China and Iran are betting the White House will feel the squeeze before they do.
Still, some analysts say Trump retains tools to raise the cost of China’s inaction — particularly through targeted financial pressure.
Max Meizlish, senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Economic and Financial Power, said the Treasury Department could target smaller Chinese financial institutions tied to Iran.
“Treasury should identify a small or mid-sized Chinese bank with exposure to Iran’s oil metals, or financial sectors, and with linkages to major Chinese state-owned entities through joint ventures or financial services,” Meizlish, a former Treasury Department official with the Office of Foreign Assets Control, explained. “Sanctions are not just punitive tools.”
Such a move, however, risks escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, potentially opening a second front in an already volatile conflict.
Though China hasn’t specifically assisted Iran militarily throughout the war, it did serve as an intermediary last week alongside Pakistan in brokering a two-week ceasefire, contingent on Iran opening up the Strait of Hormuz. As for Trump’s blockade, Chinese President Xi Jinping called the action “dangerous and irresponsible” and cautioned leaders against allowing the world stage to “revert to the law of the jungle.”
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Trump himself told reporters on Monday that he had not spoken to Xi about increasing China’s involvement in peace talks and that the U.S. has “a very good relationship with China.”
“He would like to see this end. He certainly wants it ended,” the president said. “I want to see it ended, too, but we can’t give a nuclear weapon to a group of people that have caused nothing but havoc for 47 years.”