Cook Political Report has shifted its forecast for Georgia‘s U.S. Senate seat from a “toss up” to “leans Democrat,” marking a favorable omen for Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) in his bid for reelection.
Ossoff is the incumbent and the sole Democratic candidate in a race where five Republicans are facing off in a gritty primary challenge without an endorsement from President Donald Trump to narrow the field. The forecast change indicates a momentum push for Ossoff in a 2026 midterm election primary season that has shown positive signs for Democrats.
“Georgia is playing host to one of the GOP’s most muddled primaries, which isn’t helping in their quest to oust Sen. Jon Ossoff as the first-term Democrat continues to stockpile eye-popping amounts of cash. Given those dynamics, Georgia Republicans we’ve talked to have been souring on their chances in the Peach State,” the Cook Political Report race summary reads.
Cook Political Report’s Monday morning change comes as Ossoff finished out 2025 with over $25.5 million in cash on hand, over $21 million more than Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA), the next highest fundraiser in the Georgia Senate race.
Carter, Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley are the three frontrunners for the GOP nomination. Carter finished out 2025 with over $4.1 million in cash on hand, while both Collins and Dooley hovered just over $2.3 million and $2.1 million, respectively.
Despite Carter’s cash advantage, Collins boasts heavyweight endorsements from CPAC, Turning Point Action, and the family of Laken Riley. Dooley, on the other hand, has the backing of Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA).
The latest Emerson College poll showed Collins leading in the primary over his GOP opponents, but showed Carter with the closest hypothetical margin against Ossoff, who led in every hypothetical general election matchup. The early March poll showed Ossoff leading Carter 47% to 44% in the closest general election matchup.
But Trump’s endorsement could move the needle in the Peach State, as the president flipped Georgia in 2024, winning 50.7% of the vote, compared to then-Vice President Kamala Harris‘s 48.5%. Trump won the state in 2016 by 5.7%, but lost to Joe Biden in 2020 by 0.2%.
Trump’s endorsement power was put to the test in Georgia last week, when Trump-backed former district attorney Clay Fuller won a special election to take over former Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene‘s seat. Though Fuller defeated Democrat Shawn Harris in the deep-red seat by a near 12-point margin, his victory was much slimmer than Greene’s 28.8-point margin in 2024.
MTG PREDICTS DEMOCRAT JON OSSOFF WILL WIN GEORGIA SENATE RACE
Greene, who fell from Trump’s good graces in 2025 over ideological differences related to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, healthcare, and foreign policy aims, predicted last week that Ossoff would win the Georgia Senate seat.
“If Shawn Harris was able to dig in that deep into a red district like my former district, that is definitely something to watch for in these other key races,” she said.