EXCLUSIVE — A new poll of union households in Ohio is offering an early warning sign for Democrats in two of the state’s most closely watched 2026 races, showing Republican candidates with an edge among a voting bloc long considered a core part of the party’s coalition.
The survey, conducted by the Coalition to Protect American Workers, a Republican-aligned group, found Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) leading former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown 48%-42% among union household voters. In the governor’s race, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy similarly leads Democrat Amy Acton 48%-41%.
The results pose a blow to Brown, who is attempting a comeback bid after being denied a fourth term in the Senate in 2024. The Ohio Democrat has built his political brand around support for organized labor and has been endorsed by more than 20 unions to date.
Husted, a former Ohio lieutenant governor, was appointed to the Senate in 2025 to replace now-Vice President JD Vance. Despite being a Republican, Husted has garnered the backing of at least four Ohio labor unions.
Support from union voters could be key as both races for the Senate and the Ohio governorship appear tight. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Husted leading Brown 47.7%-46.3%, while Ramaswamy leads Acton 47.5%-46.5%. Even modest movement among union households could prove decisive in races expected to be tightly contested.
The findings suggest a possible erosion of Democratic strength with union households, a voting bloc that has traditionally leaned blue but has shown signs of shifting in recent cycles. The data build on similar polling the group released last month in Michigan, which also showed union voters open to candidates running on labor reform issues rather than traditional union-backed positions.
At the center of the shift is a growing divide between how union voters view organized labor broadly and how they view union leadership specifically. The Ohio poll found strong support for policies aimed at curbing union leadership power, including 60% backing efforts to eliminate practices that allow workers to be pressured into voting without a secret ballot and 61% supporting changes to prevent election delays by union official.
That sentiment cuts across party lines. Majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all backed at least some of the proposed changes, underscoring how labor policy may no longer fall neatly along traditional partisan divisions.
Gene Hamilton, a senior adviser to the CPAW, argued the findings reflect a broader shift among union voters.
“Union household voters are done being taken for granted,” Hamilton said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner. “In two of the most critical swing states, supermajorities of union members across party lines are demanding secret ballots, fair elections, and an end to pressure tactics used by union bosses.”
He added that the results point to what he described as a larger political shift, with voters prioritizing “fairness, transparency, and a real vote,” and said candidates who run on those issues “will find a receptive audience.”
That dynamic could give candidates in both parties an opening to reshape how they approach labor messaging, particularly in races expected to be decided by narrow margins.
About 16% of union household voters remain undecided on whether they would support candidates aligned with union leadership priorities, a bloc the poll describes as a “moveable middle” that could ultimately decide close contests.
The survey also reflects broader political trends in the state. Union households backed President Donald Trump in 2024 with 56% support and now give him a net positive approval rating, while Republicans lead the generic congressional ballot among these voters 51%-38%.
The Ohio survey was conducted March 9-11 among 500 union household members and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. The Michigan survey, conducted in February, sampled 200 union household voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 6.9 points.
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The memo argues that candidates who focus on limiting union leadership power could make inroads with a constituency long viewed as reliably Democratic.
As a Republican-backed survey, the results offer a glimpse of where the GOP sees an opening with union voters. And in races already this tight, even a small shift in that bloc could be enough to tip the balance.