President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Republican Steve Hilton in California’s crowded gubernatorial race might have just handed Democrats the win.
Trump threw his support behind the former Fox News host Sunday night, endorsing him over his main Republican rival, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. The move personally benefits Hilton but strategically harms the California GOP.
“Trump just outsmarted himself on this one — if one can use the word smart in conjunction with Trump,” Garry South, a veteran California-based political expert, told the Washington Examiner. “Endorsing one of the Republicans in the race pretty much assures that that candidate goes up and the other starts to decline with Republican voters who follow Trump’s lead. We’ll see what the polls say, but Trump likely just ended Democratic angst about two Republicans ending up in the runoff.”
Democratic strategist Dave McLaughlin agreed.
“With his endorsement of Hilton, Trump obliterates any fantasy of Republicans taking the top two spots in the California jungle primary,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Like in Texas this year and so many races in 2022, Trump has the kiss of death with his political instincts for others.”
Months of polling showed Hilton and Bianco locked in a tight contest, each hovering in the low double digits. As the only two serious GOP contenders, both had been benefiting from California’s jungle primary system, a dynamic that, left unchecked, could have led to a highly improbable outcome for Republicans in the deep-blue state.
Under California’s top-two primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot, with the two highest vote-getters advancing to the general election. With Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) not seeking another term, a crowded field of Democrats quickly formed, including Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), former Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, and billionaire Tom Steyer, among others.
Support had been fragmented across multiple candidates with no clear Democratic front-runner emerging. That split, combined with Republicans consolidating behind two names, had opened the door to the possibility that both Hilton and Bianco would advance to the general election, effectively shutting Democrats out.
But by backing Hilton, the president has likely steered Republican voters decisively in one direction, undercutting Bianco and easing the path for a Democrat to make the runoff. A Democratic candidate in California has a much higher chance of winning the general election than a Republican.
Jamie Jackson, a Democratic strategist and founder of Vantage Global Media, told the Washington Examiner he believes the endorsement as a whole reflects “a fundamental misreading of the dynamics at play, particularly how strengthening a candidate can come at the cost of controlling the field.”
Jeff Burton, partner at Maven Advocacy and Republican strategist, argued the endorsement may be more calculated than it seems.
“The odds of two Republicans advancing were always a long shot,” Burton told the Washington Examiner. “Democrats are about to pour serious money into the race, and consolidation on the Republican side actually improves the chances of a Republican making the general election. A divided field risked getting shut out entirely. There was just as likely of a chance of two Democrats moving to the general as two Republicans, so this tilts the edge towards Hilton in an R vs. D general election.”
Trump posted on his social media platform that he had known Hilton for years and called the conservative commentator “a truly fine man” who could turn around a state beset with notoriously high taxes. California, Trump wrote, “has gone to hell.”
Trump highlighted many of the problems facing California and blamed Newsom for them. He emphasized high crime rates and taxes and noted that Californians are relocating to other states to escape those burdens.
Hilton has focused his campaign on lowering costs and rooting out fraud. Although he said he was “honored” to receive Trump’s endorsement, it may ultimately prove to be a liability.
“What makes this dangerous for Republicans is that this endorsement lands at a time when frustration with Trump is not limited to Democrats or independents,” political expert James Christopher, founder of James Christopher Communications, told the Washington Examiner. “There is real dissatisfaction inside the Republican coalition, especially on the economy. Many Republican voters are not feeling relief on the cost of living, and elected Republicans have already shown discomfort with some of Trump’s trade posture. So his endorsement no longer arrives as pure political muscle. It also comes with baggage on prices, instability, and electability.”
Political strategist Jeff Le cautioned that while Democrats may appear to benefit from the presidential endorsement for now, the November election is still months away.
“The Democrats are certainly beneficiaries of more attack lines against Mr. Hilton, and a path to a Democrat emerging past two Republicans looks more and more likely,” he said. “Single-digit flagging candidates, however, may still represent a roadblock, though upcoming debates and further establishment endorsements could consolidate voter interest. Should a Democrat make it to the November general election, they would be heavy favorites in a supermajority state that has not seen a Republican win statewide since Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.”