When Congress returns from Easter recess, it will have one item on its agenda: Paying for the war in Iran. Budget analysts say the president will need $200 billion to finish the job.
That $200 billion is possible. But with a zero-vote margin in the House, the only realistic option will be to offset that increase by cutting costs elsewhere. Republicans can do that through a reconciliation package.
Congressional Republicans appear to agree on a clear target: welfare fraud and waste. Three in four likely voters want the federal government to crack down on fraud in welfare programs, especially food stamps. Eliminating fraud is not just a talking point, it is a real way to save billions of dollars.
TRUMP IS CRACKING DOWN ON THE WELFARE FRAUD NO ONE’S TALKING ABOUT
The news is filled with examples of welfare fraud: Minnesota childcare centers without children, a New York adult day care center billing $68 million for nonexistent services, a Minneapolis woman fleecing $250 million from a food program for kids, and Mississippi officials diverting $5 million in welfare assistance to build a volleyball arena.
These examples are not cherry-picking. In 2024 alone, Medicaid Fraud Control Units recovered $1.4 billion. Trafficked benefits in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) amount to about $1.27 billion a year.
Voters know this is only the surface of the problem. We catch the fraud we look for.
Congress can help states investigate and prosecute fraudsters, but states need more tools. For instance, Congress could allow state investigators to access IRS tax return data. That would be a major help in combating household-composition fraud, as well as Earned Income Tax Credit and SNAP fraud. Congress could also allow states to retain more of their recoveries and require that those funds be reinvested in anti-fraud efforts, as was proposed in the 2024 Farm Bill.
The real game changer, however, is prevention. Too often, we hear about fraud only after the money is already out the door. Simple reforms could change that.
Congress should create uniform identity-verification standards for all online government assistance programs so bad actors can’t access benefits in the first place. Other reforms — such as banning self-attestation, opening federal data sources for state data matches, and reforming asset limits so millionaires can’t qualify for welfare benefits — would help ensure aid goes to the people who actually need it.
Taxpayers also understand that the problem goes beyond outright fraud. There’s waste, too. And that waste has been enabled by poorly written laws that create obfuscation rather than clarity. There’s obvious resistance to transparency — 21 states and the District of Columbia sued the U.S. Department of Agriculture simply for requesting data on SNAP recipients receiving benefits funded by federal taxpayers. Without real transparency and meaningful measurement of outcomes, we will never achieve the goal of helping our neighbors: self-sufficiency and flourishing.
The Government Accountability Office has tracked improper payments for decades, and welfare programs are consistently among the worst offenders. Its fiscal 2024 report found $31.1 billion in improper Medicaid payments, $15.9 billion for EITC, and $10.5 billion for SNAP. And that’s only the waste we know about.
This is fixable. We can track who receives welfare benefits. Congress could require states to provide both safety-net beneficiaries and providers with an annual IRS information return disclosing the total value of benefits received, broken out by program. There’s precedent for this. States and other administering agencies already use Form 1099-G to report federally funded, non-taxable benefits such as unemployment compensation, agricultural payments, and state or local tax refunds.
STOP PRETENDING THE IRAN WAR WASN’T NECESSARY
Even more importantly, we need to know whether this spending actually leads to better lives. Only two federal income-based programs track outcomes after participants exit. That’s how we know when a program fails — we can track when former enrollees end up earning less, not more. States and providers should be required to track employment, wages, and educational enrollment after people leave a program so we can determine whether they are truly better off.
If Congress needs to find $200 billion, it should begin where public support is strongest and the moral case is clearest: stopping fraud and waste in welfare programs. Americans do not object to helping people get back on their feet. They object to a system that too often rewards dishonesty, hides failure, and spends billions without proving results. A serious reconciliation bill should reflect that common-sense bargain: Protect the vulnerable, punish the fraudsters, and demand that every taxpayer dollar serve its intended purpose.
Les Ford is a Senior Fellow at the Alliance for Opportunity, and Andrew McClenahan is the Intergovernmental Board Co-Chair at the United Council on Welfare Fraud.