GRAPEVINE, Texas – After unseating Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) in a high-profile Republican primary, Texas Republican Rep. Steve Toth is already casting his victory as a broader message to the GOP, and making bold predictions about what comes next.
“This was a defeat that was a long time in the making,” Toth said in an interview with the Washington Examiner at CPAC. “It sends a very clear message that if you’re going to run as a Republican, you have to go to Washington, D.C., and act like a Republican.”
Toth’s upset win over Crenshaw, a four-term incumbent once seen as a rising GOP figure, came despite the absence of a key factor that has defined many Republican primaries: an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Trump declined to back either candidate in the race, leaving Crenshaw without the support that has buoyed many incumbents.
Instead, Toth received a late boost from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who endorsed him in the final stretch of the campaign. Toth said the backing helped consolidate support among conservative voters heading into election day.
The result underscored growing frustration among GOP primary voters with Republicans viewed as insufficiently aligned with the party’s base, a dynamic Toth said is reshaping the party well beyond his own race.
Now, Toth is applying that same sentiment to Texas’s marquee Senate showdown, predicting Attorney General Ken Paxton will defeat Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) decisively in a runoff election at the end of May.
Toth pointed to early polling margins to argue the race is effectively out of reach for Cornyn.
“When you’re at 60-40, this will probably end up more like 65-35 once Ken’s message is out,” he said, adding that Cornyn’s roughly $100 million in spending has failed to change the trajectory. “That’s not something even Trump could fix,” he said, suggesting even a late intervention from the president would be unlikely to shift the race.
He also emphasized what he described as consistently high expectations among Texas Republicans, saying voters reward candidates who follow through on their campaign promises.
“We have high expectations in Texas that if you campaign as a Republican, you better go to D.C. and act like one,” he said.
Even as some Republicans in Washington have raised concerns about Paxton’s general election viability, Toth dismissed those warnings, arguing current polling shows no Democratic advantage.
“Whether it’s Cornyn or it’s Ken Paxton, [the Democrat is] even with a Republican or behind by a couple points,” he said, predicting that once Paxton fully engages, “Ken will destroy.”
Toth’s confidence extends beyond Texas’s Senate race to the broader battle for control of the House, where Republicans face historical headwinds in the midterm elections amid rising gas prices and concerns about the Iran war.
“I think we’re going to hold the House,” Toth said, contrasting the current map with 2018, when a wave of Republican retirements created opportunities for Democrats. “This time, Democrats have two seats. It looks good for us.”
He also brushed aside concerns that economic or foreign policy pressures could derail the GOP, predicting conditions will improve before voters head to the polls.
“I think you’re going to see gas prices back down to where they were,” he said.
Still, Toth acknowledged the possibility Republicans could lose the House, a scenario that could force him, as a likely incoming member, into the minority but said his approach would remain unchanged.
“I’m going to continue to push for the ‘America First’ agenda every step of the way,” Toth said. “And I’m going to continue to remind people that this was a choice.”
He pointed to the 2018 midterm elections as a model for governing in the minority.
“In 2018, we lost control of the House under Trump, and Trump still got a lot done,” Toth said. “So we’re still going to work hard at codifying the president’s agenda.”
REP DAN CRENSHAW DEFEATED BY STEVE TOTH IN TEXAS GOP PRIMARY UPSET
Toth also downplayed divisions within the Republican Party over the war in Iran, even as the conflict has exposed fault lines between more hawkish Republicans and a growing bloc of populist conservatives wary of deeper U.S. involvement. He argued those disagreements are part of the party’s identity and ultimately temporary.
“We’re not trail horses,” he said. “We tend to be more like mustangs. We fight each other, we bite each other, but we’re going to come together in the general.”