Democrats’ victories in two Florida state special elections are setting off warning bells for House Republicans from the Sunshine State, who say the results signal that the GOP needs to “pivot” its messaging.
Florida Democrats flipped two GOP seats on Tuesday night. Democrat Emily Gregory defeated Republican Jon Maples for a state house seat that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home. Democrat Brian Nathan also defeated GOP state Rep. Josie Tomkow for an open state Senate seat, which Trump carried by 7 points in 2024.
The results were an eye-opener for the Florida congressional delegation, who say it’s a warning sign for Republicans and their narrow House majority heading into the midterm elections.
“It’s got everybody’s attention,” Rep. Aaron Bean (R-FL) said. “There’s going to be a lot of studying what happened. What can we do to make sure that doesn’t happen, particularly in the congressional races that are coming up in, what, six months from now?”
Rep. Kat Cammack (R-FL) said Washington should take note of the results and “do a little bit of pivoting” when it comes to messaging.
“We had really good candidates,” Cammack said, but “we need to do a better job of telling our message and talking about all the wins that we’ve been able to secure the last year.”
Republicans face turnout and messaging issues
Tuesday proved to be yet another sign that Republicans are struggling to find their footing in a critical midterm year in which historical trends already favor Democrats. The House GOP conference gathered in Miami at the beginning of March to talk about their 2026 strategy, with campaign chiefs arguing their members need to “connect the dots” and plug legislative wins.
Cammack said she spoke to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on the House floor and “he agreed” it was clear, based on Tuesday’s results, that affordability has “not been talked about enough.”
“The headlines really have been dominated by things outside the affordability conversation,” the congresswoman said, pointing to the tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. “I just literally spoke to the speaker about the need to really pivot the conversation and the work that we’re doing here towards the kitchen table issues, and really delivering results there.”
Republicans and Democrats have acknowledged the significant number of independents who swung toward Democratic candidates on Tuesday, with the latter arguing it shows the GOP is losing ground even in red states such as Florida.
“This just sends a resounding message, not just to Florida but to Republicans around the country, that the American people are fed up,” said Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA). “They’re fed up with the costs going up, and the President and this administration and Republicans writ large are not doing anything to help them.”
Turnout also played a significant role in Tuesday’s elections. While Republicans had a surprisingly steady turnout in the special elections, it was not enough to combat the level of enthusiasm from Democrats. Since the 2024 election, Democrats have flipped over two dozen seats in Republican and battleground states. Republicans have not captured any seats.
“Republicans simply are not mobilizing their voters in ways Democrats are right now,” Republican strategist Dennis Lennox said, calling the results “a break-the-glass moment.”
“If I’m a Republican in a toss-up or even a low single-digit red seat, I’m nervous,” Lennox added.
But Republican leadership isn’t too concerned about Tuesday’s election results, saying the results of special and off-year contests are overhyped.
“Special elections are always unique because they’re very low turnout,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said on Wednesday. “You know, surely you look at those and see other things we can learn and improve upon when the big election comes.… But the big election is going to be the November midterm, and we’re laser-focused on that.”
Tuesday’s turnout got mixed reviews from the Florida delegation. To Bean, it’s a big problem Republicans need to reconcile with before November.
“The other side got more votes than we did. That’s No. 1 [issue],” Bean said. “So we have to get our folks out, get them fired up to go to the polls.”
“Trust me, it’s caught the attention of everybody in the politics business right now,” he added.
Other Florida Republicans acknowledged GOP turnout was low but brushed off the idea that it held any heavy implications for the midterm elections.
“Josie [Tomkow’s] going to run again, and I suspect Republicans turn out in November — it’s going to be much higher than it was in the special,” Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) said. “I’m not reading too much into it.”
Rep. Laurel Lee (R-FL) said special election turnout patterns “tend to be different” and she anticipates a “much higher level of voter participation” in November. But, she noted, “certainly always we need to think about the voters in our districts back home, the issues they care about, and make sure what we’re doing in Washington aligns with that.”
Redistricting in Florida hovers on the horizon
The results of the state special elections have also shone a spotlight on the possible ramifications if Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) follows through with plans to redistrict Florida, with Democratic leaders stating Tuesday’s results are a sign that Republicans will lose heavily this fall.
“Democrats FLIPPED a state House seat in Palm Beach that Trump won by 11 points in 2024. Mar-a-Lago will now be represented by Emily Gregory, a strong Democratic voice,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) wrote in a post on X on Tuesday.
“We will crush House Republicans in November if DeSantis tries to gerrymander the Florida congressional map,” Jeffries added.
DeSantis has called for a spring special legislative session to redistrict in Florida, which is set to begin next month. His efforts follow successful gerrymandering in states including Texas, which will hand Republicans five extra seats in the House. But that has been offset by redistricting in California, so other red states are looking to alter their maps and give the GOP a boost in what is expected to be a bruising election season for Republicans.
Cammack said she thinks Florida should continue to look “very seriously at redistricting” but cautioned the state from trying to find as many seats as Texas.
“I think any effort to draw five seats, while well intentioned, is maybe not the most realistic,” Cammack said. “And we want to be sure that we’re being thoughtful and smart moving into this.”
In response to Democrats benefiting from redistricting, the congresswoman said, “Republicans enjoy about a 1.5 million Republican voter advantage in Florida. So any notion that Florida’s turning purple or trending purple, that’s ridiculous.”
A Florida Republican operative involved in drawing the new Florida maps, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, said the special elections results won’t affect redistricting. They said people should just “trust the process” and not give in to fearmongering from Democrats that redistricting will only further hurt the GOP.
The operative, however, said many Republican circles are frustrated with DeSantis for not pouring more energy into the state special elections, worrying a similar pattern in the national midterm elections could be bad for the GOP. They pointed to Trump endorsing Maples in his race against Gregory and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) endorsing both Maples and Tomkow.
TRUMP’S MAR-A-LAGO TO BE REPRESENTED BY DEMOCRAT AFTER FLORIDA SPECIAL ELECTION UPSET
“We saw MAGA Republicans out in these races, fighting for these races. But DeSantis, his staffers, his consultants, [Lt. Gov. Jay Collins], whose own seat he was vacating, they did nothing,” the operative said. “[DeSantis] had everything to gain, nothing to lose by supporting Republicans, by showing a united front. Instead, he decided to let Democrats win these seats.”
“One post from Ron, we would have won these,” the operative added.