Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of Washington Secrets, where we are gearing up for CPAC in Texas. Unlike Sen John Cornyn, who is claiming a scheduling conflict to avoid what would likely be a tricky appearance in front of the MAGA movement. We also have exclusive polling showing how gas prices are hitting voters …
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is very sorry and has sent his apologies via a public statement to the organizers of the Conservative Political Action Conference.
Yes, it may be that it is being held in his home state of Texas, but important votes in the Senate mean he will be stuck in Washington, D.C., and unable to attend.
Never mind that the traditionally Trumpy crowd at CPAC may take issue with his record and may actually prefer his election-denying rival for the Texas Senate nomination, Ken Paxton, who just happens to have landed one of the plum speaking slots at the conference. It’s just a diary clash.
So Secrets has good news for the senator!
It’s not too late for him to attend this week’s gathering of the conservative movement, according to Matt Schlapp, its chairman.
On Monday, Schlapp offered a generous invitation to the four-term senator (or called his bluff, depending on your point of view). He told Secrets he was ready to work with the busy senator to find him a slot that would work for him, and that CPAC wasn’t playing favorites.
“We haven’t endorsed in the race,” said Schlapp. “I’ve known Sen. Cornyn for almost 30 years. He should come.”
Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) are among the confirmed speakers.
“His spokesperson said he can’t show up because they have votes, but we have other senators speaking,” said Schlapp. “So we’ll make a time available that doesn’t conflict with votes, and he should come.”
Cornyn is locked in a bitter primary runoff with Paxton, the state’s attorney general and a darling of the MAGA movement.
The senator finished first in the March 3 primary but fell short of the majority needed to avoid a runoff.
Their high-stakes showdown — which carries implications for the future of the Republican Party and the MAGA movement — comes on May 26.
In the meantime, Paxton has bagged one of the most coveted speaking slots — at the Ronald Reagan dinner on Friday.
That leaves Cornyn between a rock and a hard place, according to Gregg Keller, spokesman for Lone Star Liberty PAC, which is backing Paxton.
He said the senator probably remembered being booed at the Texas Republican Party’s 2022 convention in Houston, where delegates took issue with his work on a gun reform bill.
“I think he and his team are probably extremely worried they’re going to get the same kind of response if he shows up at CPAC in Dallas this week,” said Keller. “But it certainly would be a slap in the face of grassroots Texas conservatives if he skipped this incredibly important event.”
Cornyn’s team did not respond to questions about whether it was prepared to work with Schlapp on finding a speaking slot.
CPAC has announced it will include a question about support for Cornyn or Paxton on its straw poll of attendees.
Cornyn is seen as the more electable of the two by Senate leadership. Paxton, who led the charge with cries of election fraud in the wake of Trump’s 2020 defeat, comes with awkward baggage in the form of a tricky divorce and past fraud allegations (all resolved) but may better excite the MAGA base.
Trump has withheld his endorsement for now, leaving the two candidates to slug it out in one of the most expensive primaries of the cycle.
Insiders say Cornyn was at one time confident of winning the president’s backing, but that has waned.
He has moved to curry favor by throwing his support behind abolishing the filibuster to pass a voting restrictions bill that Trump views as his top priority in Congress.
Three-quarters of voters feel gas price pain
EXCLUSIVE — There is no getting away from it. Gas prices are causing pain among voters as Trump’s war with Iran continues, according to new polling by J.L. Partners.
In January, the firm asked 1,000 voters if they had noticed any difference in the price of gas. Some 15% said they had seen a large price rise, and 23% said they had seen a small one, compared with more than half who said they had noticed a drop in price or no difference.
Last weekend, with oil supplies choked off through the Strait of Hormuz, the number who had seen a rise rocketed to three-quarters (51% said they had seen a big increase; 24% a small one).
The White House insists the rises are temporary. And the president says they are a price worth paying to tame Iran.
But for a president elected on affordability, the result is a huge problem ahead of the midterm elections.
“The price of gas is the ugly, big ogre blocking the path to a Republican majority in November,” said James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners. “People were worried about affordability before the conflict in Iran, but were giving the administration credit on gas prices.”
“Now that has totally flipped. This might not last forever – perhaps it will come down again before November. But until that ogre is felled it is going to be hard for the GOP to turn things around.”
Who do you believe?
“I think it’s pretty telling that, at this point, I think most commentators are liable to believe what the Iranians say — which is saying something — more than they do what President Trump is saying.”
That was Robert Malley on NPR this morning. Sure, he was Joe Biden’s special envoy to Iran, but he has a point. After Trump paused his threat to bombard Iranian energy sites, citing productive talks, and Iran denied any such talks, commentators have generally concluded that Trump was freestyling his way out of a catastrophic escalation.
As ever, the truth lies in the middle. But it is not a good look to be considered less trustworthy than Iran’s leaders.
Lunchtime reading
The Vance Whisperer – How Jacob Reses, an earnest young Republican reformer, became one of the most powerful operatives in Trump’s Washington: His social media feeds are private, and he maintains a low profile, but his influence runs deep. Sample quote. “Reses is clearly the Kissinger to the Nixon.”
Xi Jinping’s morality crackdown has a new victim: The global wine trade: Wealthy Chinese buyers had sent the price of grand cru wine soaring in recent years. But that is all changing. The Chinese Communist Party had launched a drive against festive drinking, leaving a glut of fine wine undrunk.
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