Welcome to Tuesday’s edition of Washington Secrets. Today we have a dive into the fundraising numbers that show that Democrats’ target list of midterm districts is aspirational, to put it politely, or a “political hallucination,” if you are less polite, plus how Donald Trump is uniting British politicians…
Democrats keep expanding their battleground map of midterm target seats but do they really have any chance in some of the districts they claim they can win?
Of the 44 districts listed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign (DCCC) as targets, at least 11 of those seats look unwinnable, with Republican incumbents far outraising their challengers in seats won comfortably last time around, according to a Secrets analysis of fundraising.
Democrats insist the country is ready for change and they have the caliber of candidates needed.
“Democrats are on offense, and our map reflects the fact that everyday Americans are tired of Republicans’ broken promises and ready for change in Congress,” said Suzan DelBene, chair of the DCCC last month as the campaign group added five seats to the list.
To assess election prospects, Secrets examined the 44 districts listed by the DCCC as targets.
They include some where Democrats would have to overturn 15-point deficits, and where Republican candidates are outraising challengers 10-fold in some cases. It suggests they are far from close to putting together campaigns that can win.
Republicans ridiculed the target map.
“House Democrats are trying to invade ruby red Republican territory with embarrassing recruitment failures, empty bank accounts, and political hallucination,” said Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“They can continue fantasizing about ‘expanding’ the map all they want, but they’re operating on our turf, and they’re stuck wasting their money defending their weak incumbents and stitching together their messy primaries.”
Added in February was CO-05, for example, which has never been held by a Democrat. And a dozen are rated “safe Republican” by the Cook Political Report.
Democratic strategists say it is not as simple as looking at past performance.
They say their data show that voters are ready for change and their candidates have overperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by 17 points in congressional special elections.
And it is showing up in midterm polling. A December poll in MI-04 showed that challenger Sean McCann had drawn level with Republican incumbent Bill Huizenga, in a district he won by 12 points in 2024.
“The American people are souring on Donald Trump’s broken promises to lower the cost of living, end foreign wars, and ensure law and order,” said Justin Chermol, DCCC spokesman. “With superior candidates and a stronger message, Democrats have the momentum to defeat Republican extremists in Trump territory for failing to deliver results for the constituents they are supposed to represent.”
We’ll find out in November. In the meantime, these 11 seats look the hardest to flip:
AZ-02: Rep. Eli Crane raised more than $1,641,000 in Q4 and has more than $2,400,000 cash on hand (C.O.H.). Compare that with Democratic challenger Jonathan Nez who raised only $397,450 during the same period and has $649,276 C.O.H.
Crane +9 in 2024
Trump +15 in 2024
FL-13: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna raised $358,544 in Q4 and has $1,083,754 on hand. Her closest Democratic challenger, Earle Ford, brought in $144,098 and has just $84,072 on hand.
Luna +10 in 2024
Trump +12 in 2024
FL-15: Rep. Laurel Lee raised $360,491 and has $1,315,495 cash on hand. Democrat Darren McAuley raised just $129,856 with $176,134 cash on hand, according to their filings.
Lee +12 in 2024
Trump +11 in 2024
IA-02: Trump-endorsed Joe Mitchell raised $301,508 in Q4 and has $576,477 cash on hand. Democrat Lindsay James is not far behind, taking in $180,678 in Q4 with $302,446.88 cash on hand. Meanwhile Democrat Clint Twedt-Ball brought in $114,283.52 in Q4 and has $153,577 COH. Democrat Kathy Dolter did $2,580.75 in Q4 and has $4,586.12 C.O.H.
Hinson +15 in 2024
Trump +10 in 2024
MI-04: Rep. Bill Huizenga raised $433,832.84 in Q4 and has $1,598,012 cash on hand. Democrat Sean McCann raised $253,482 in Q4 and has only $259,798 cash on hand.
Huizenga +12 in 2024
Trump +6 in 2024
MO-02: Rep. Ann Wagner raised $554,975 in Q4 with $4.2 million cash on hand, outraising her Democrat challengers, Jeff Wellman, $429,937 in Q4 with only $177,195 cash on hand, and Joan Vonda with $274,308 in Q4 with only $263,126 cash on hand.
Wagner +12 in 2024
Trump +8 in 2024
OH-15: Rep. Mike Carey raised $397,729 in Q4 with $1.5 million cash on hand. Democrat Adam Clay Miller raised $244,664 in Q4 with only $309,100 cash on hand.
Carey +14 in 2024
Trump +10 in 2024
PA-01: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick raised $864,638.36 in Q4, more than doubling Democrat Bob Harvie who raised $370,220.39 in Q4. Even more significant, however, is the cash on hand discrepancy: Fitzpatrick has nearly 20 times what Harvie does ($7,360,520.96 to $408,130.84).
Fitzpatrick +13 in 2024
Harris +0.5 in 2024
TX-15: Rep. Monica De La Cruz raised $809k in 2024 and has $2 million cash on hand. That’s more than Bobby Pulidom, who won last week’s Democratic primary, with $415,452 raised in Q4 and $288,087 cash on hand.
De La Cruz +15 in 2024
Trump +18 in 2024
VA-01: Rep. Rob Wittman raised $614,954 in Q4 while his Democratic opponent Shannon Taylor raised $403,954. Wittman holds a significant cash on hand advantage with $3,178,993 compared to Taylor’s $480,967.
Wittman +13 in 2024
Trump +5 in 2024
WI-01: Rep. Byran Steil raised $977,000 in Q4 and has more than $4.9 million cash on hand. Democrat Mitchell Berman raised $108,677 in Q4 and has only $90,165 cash on hand.
Steil +11 in 2024
Trump +4 in 2024
Conservative group’s stealth campaign against Dan Crenshaw
David McIntosh, president of the influential Club for Growth, spilled some more of the beans on its work to defeat Rep. Dan Crenshaw in his Texas primary.
Crenshaw was once a rising star of the GOP but was toppled amid criticism that he was insufficiently loyal to the Maga movement.
McIntosh (who himself has not always lined up completely behind the Maga movement in the past) celebrated when results came in earlier this month, revealing that the Club for Growth had donated $200,000 to Alamo Freedom Fighters PAC, which backed challenger Steve Toth.
Secrecy was key, he told reporters at a lunchtime briefing on Monday.
“We were pretty quiet about it because we didn’t want to bring in a lot of opposing funds,” he said. “But Steve Toth was somebody that we’ve known for a long time, and I was excited to see him win that primary against Dan Crenshaw.”
Trump’s attacks unite British politicians
Donald Trump has kept up a steady stream of attacks on Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, since he went to war with Iran.
He was at it again on Monday, saying he was not happy with the U.K. and “very surprised” over its response to the conflict. He chastised Starmer directly for not showing enough leadership after the British PM said he would have to consult with his military top brass to assess what assistance he could offer.
The rebukes, however, have only managed to unite British politicians. On Tuesday, Kemi Badenoch, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, rushed to Starmer’s defense.
After saying she was the PM’s “biggest critic,” she accused Trump of “childish” attacks.
“The last thing we need is a war of words – it’s quite childish as well – between the White House and Downing Street,” she said.
READ MORE: Trump went to war without a coalition. Now he wants one
Lunchtime reading
Len Deighton, author who reinvented the spy thriller with his Harry Palmer books: Len Deighton, who has died aged 97, was acclaimed “the poet of the spy novel”, having almost single-handedly rescued spy fiction from the flashy, tuxedo-clad, womanising, snobbish and – some said – sadistic world of James Bond and refashioning it into something altogether grittier and more realistic.
Vance embraces ‘Fraud Czar’ role, Dems plan to make it a 2028 liability: “It will be blocks of cement around his ankles,” a senior Democratic official told RealClearPolitics last month after the speech to Congress. Another operative predicted that, come 2028, the new role “will be an albatross around his neck.”
You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at secrets @ washington examiner DOTCOM with your comments, story tips, and suggestions. If a friend sent you this and you’d like to sign up, click here.