The assassination of Iran’s top national security official, Ali Larijani, marks the most senior Iranian official killed since the opening hours of the war with Iran, and sends a signal that the United States and Israel are ready to begin going down the chain of command if Tehran remains implacable.
Larijani was one of the most influential Iranian officials for nearly two decades and had served in one of the highest posts in Iran, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, since August. He was widely viewed as the de facto leader of Iran following the assassination of then-supreme leader Ali Khamenei, running the affairs of the wartime government amid the apparent incapacitation of current supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei. His assassination sends a signal to Iran’s high command that even with wartime precautions, Iran doesn’t have the ability to protect anyone in the country.
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Larijani was one of the most belligerent figures in Iran’s wartime government, and one of the most openly defiant. Just last week, he marched in the streets of Tehran in a display of confidence, alongside other Iranian leaders.
The night of Monday into Tuesday marked the biggest wave of targeted, high-ranking assassinations since Feb. 28. In the same wave of strikes, Israel and the U.S. killed most of the paramilitary Basij leadership, including its top commander for the past six years — Gholamreza Soleimani. Over a dozen Basij commanders were reportedly killed.
Many of those killed were taken out in a strike on a tent being used as the Basij’s headquarters after the actual headquarters was bombed.
New phase of the war?
The choice of targets could also signal a new phase in the war. Larijani has been widely speculated to be the mastermind behind the January crackdown that saw tens of thousands of Iranian protesters killed, while the Basij played a leading role in the massacres. The death of the crackdown’s mastermind and the decapitation of one of its primary enforcers could be aimed at emboldening new protests from the Iranian people, who have so far been ordered by opposition leaders, the U.S., and Israel to refrain from actively demonstrating for fear of collateral damage.
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In another recent shift, last week, Israel began carrying out drone strikes on individual Basij checkpoints, clearing the way for Iranian protests.
The killing also serves as a major propaganda victory for the U.S. and Israel after over a week of international doubts. Though Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and navy were all but annihilated, Tehran’s ability to harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had shot up global oil prices and triggered significant criticism of Operation Epic Fury among U.S. allies and domestically. The targeted killings of several high-ranking Iranian officials simultaneously show the continued dominance of U.S.-Israeli intelligence and military capabilities. It also adds to the feeling of a lack of control in Tehran.
In his announcement of Larijani and Soleimani’s deaths, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz joked about the turnover in Tehran.
“President Trump spoke about the high rate of turnover within Iran’s leadership. When morning breaks in Washington, we will update him that the high rate of turnover is continuing and even accelerating following the elimination of two of the most senior remaining figures,” he said.
Larijani stood out among Iranian officials for his advanced Western-centered education, writing his thesis on German philosopher Emmanuel Kant’s philosophy of mathematics. He became well-known on X for his open mockery of U.S. and Israeli leaders, using his familiarity with Western thought to target U.S. sensibilities in his rhetoric. He spent much of his public presence online in his final weeks spinning conspiracy theories about Jeffrey Epstein.
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“Mr. Hegseth! Our leaders have been, and still are, among the people. But your leaders? On Epstein’s island!” Larijani said in a post on X responding to War Secretary Pete Hegseth, who said Iran’s leadership was cowering and hiding like “rats.”
In one of his final posts, Larijani sought to cultivate conspiratorial sentiment within the U.S. and claimed “members of Epstein’s network” were trying to carry out a false flag attack and blame it on Iran.
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“I’ve heard that the remaining members of Epstein’s network have devised a conspiracy to create an incident similar to 9/11 and blame Iran for it. Iran fundamentally opposes such terrorist schemes and has no war with the American people,” he said.
Research Fellow and Middle East expert Zineb Riboua at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East speculated that his goading of Epstein conspiracy theories was a purposeful tactic to appear naive to Western leaders as he ruthlessly consolidated power.