AUSTIN, TX — State Rep. James Talarico is facing a new and more difficult test after he won a Democratic primary for Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) Senate seat in Texas.
Talarico was widely viewed as the stronger candidate for Democrats, beating firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett by 6 points on Tuesday night. But he will confront the same political dynamic that has locked Democrats out of statewide office for the last three decades, running as a progressive in a state that President Donald Trump carried by 14 points in 2024.
“This is an uphill battle, because Texas at the statewide level has been solidly red for decades, so for James Talarico to run a winning campaign, even in what is shaping up to be a negative cycle for Republicans, everything has to go right,” Democratic strategist Jon Reneish told the Washington Examiner.
“He has to persuade fence-sitters. He also has to run both a traditional and a non-traditional campaign, in that he has to bring in infrequent voters and subprime voters to the polls,” Reneish continued. “He’s got to inspire young voters, many of whom stayed home in the last presidential cycle in 2024, so he’s got to hit those college towns.”
Democrats see an opening for Talarico after former Democratic Texas Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 percentage points of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2018, a blue wave election year.
Trump nonetheless garnered 1.5 million more votes than Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024, leaving Republicans to relish the prospect of Democrats pouring resources into Texas.
“I hope that Democrats spend tens of millions of dollars in the Texas Senate race,” Republican strategist Brian Seitchik told the Washington Examiner. “It feels like fool’s gold to me, so the more they spend on that race, the less resources they will have in other competitive races around the country. “
Talarico is expected to benefit from a motivated base of Democratic voters after Tuesday’s primary, which saw the highest turnout in decades, and he is highlighting that fact early in his general election campaign.
With 98% of the vote counted, Talarico received 52.5% of the primary vote, compared to Crockett’s 46.2%, as of 4 p.m. Wednesday.
“The number of Texans who have never voted before, but showed up in this election, is unprecedented,” Talarico said at his primary election party Tuesday night. “The number of independents and Republicans who voted in this democratic primary is unprecedented. This is proof that there is something happening in Texas tonight. Tonight, the people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope, and a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.”
Still, Talarico, a Presbyterian pastor-in-training, will face scrutiny for his progressive views and months of campaign ads painting him as a radical. He has attempted to reach cross-over voters with a Christian-infused message that emphasizes civility and coalition-building. But he has simultaneously made statements on the border, abortion, and gender identity that Republicans believe will alienate him with a right-leaning voting electorate.
“I mean, Texas is a Republican state,” George Washington University Legislative Affairs Program Director Casey Burgat told the Washington Examiner. “Does that mean those conditions equate to a high probability of winning? I think that’s what we don’t know yet.”
“The challenges are baked in,” Reneish continued. “No Democrat has won statewide in Texas in decades, so one person came close eight years ago, and that was Beto O’Rourke against Ted Cruz, who is a hell of a lot less popular and more unlikable than John Cornyn is.”
To some extent, Talarico’s fate will be determined by which Republican advances in a May 26 runoff between Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cornyn is viewed as the safer bet given his track record of winning statewide across four terms in the Senate. Paxton, for his part, argues that he will be able to mobilize Republicans in a midterm year, but would bring to the general election a series of scandals, including corruption charges and allegations of infidelity, that could make winning easier for Democrats.
Trump, who stayed out of the Republican primary on Tuesday, announced Wednesday that he will endorse a candidate in the Texas Senate runoff “soon” and preemtively urged the other candidate to “drop out.”
In his announcement, the president added that the next race has to be “perfect” to beat Talarico come November.
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Part of Talarico’s appeal is his fundraising ability, a skill that will be needed in a large and expensive state. He’s also gone viral for opposing Republican state lawmakers moving to add the Ten Commandments to public classrooms, and at another point for criticizing those lawmakers for not adopting stricter gun laws in the face of mass shootings.
His emphasis on his Christian background has drawn comparisons to Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-GA), a Baptist pastor who won in purple Georgia in 2021, though Republicans also believe his comments on religion could be a liability for him. Talarico has previously stated that “God is nonbinary” and suggested that the Bible sanctions abortion.