One of the most bitter and expensive Senate races in Texas history is headed to a runoff between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Cornyn won 42.9% of the primary vote at the time the Associated Press called the race on Tuesday night, compared to 40.5% for Paxton. Neither candidate reached the 50% threshold needed to win the GOP nomination outright with 60% of votes counted, meaning voters will return for a May 26 runoff to decide who represents Republicans in the general election.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), a second challenger who siphoned votes away from both Paxton and Cornyn, is projected to be eliminated after placing third.
The outcome is a setback for Cornyn and his allies, who spent millions amplifying Paxton’s many scandals, including his 2023 impeachment on corruption charges and a messy divorce from his wife stemming from claims of infidelity. In the end, Paxton, who fashioned himself as a MAGA warrior and Cornyn as a fake conservative, maintained his base of support.
Still, Cornyn demonstrated he can stay in contention for a fifth term with the help of a large war chest, keeping the margin tight despite lagging 4 to 5 points in the final polls.
In an election night speech, Cornyn called Paxton a “flawed, self-centered, and shameless candidate” and predicted that he would be vindicated after he told reporters that “judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton.”
‘SWEAT EQUITY’: WESLEY HUNT NOT SHYING AWAY FROM MISSED VOTES AHEAD OF TEXAS SENATE PRIMARY
Paxton is viewed as the weaker general election candidate and lacks institutional support in Washington, but Cornyn has struggled to shake claims that he is insufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump and is too willing to compromise with Democrats.
Each attempted to court an endorsement from the president, who headlined a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, on Friday, but he ultimately decided to stay on the sidelines — making the primary one of the few Texas races in which Trump did not endorse.
“They’re in a little race together,” Trump said of the pair. “You know that, right? A little bit of a race. It’s going to be an interesting one, right? They’re both great people, too.”
Cornyn, who easily won his last general election contest in 2020, has 12 more weeks to convince voters that Republicans must coalesce around his candidacy if they hope to keep Texas red in November. The winner of the May runoff will face state Rep. James Talarico or Jasmine Crockett, who are locked in a yet-to-be-called race for the Democratic nomination.
His main argument, that he is the most electable, was enough to convince donors to spend nearly $70 million on ads supporting his candidacy, helping make the primary the second most expensive in Senate history, according to AdImpact.
That pitch is running up against the anti-establishment fervor that has buoyed Paxton’s campaign, however, leading to questions over how much national Republicans will spend to continue protecting him.
Paxton, by contrast, has largely saved his war chest for the runoff, with his campaign and allied groups only spending $4 million in the primary so far.
Cornyn allies believed they stood a better chance of winning had Hunt not entered the race in October, when their surge in resources appeared to be leveling the playing field against Paxton in polling.
But Hunt, 44, ignored the pleas of national Republicans who warned he would play spoiler, telling reporters that only Trump could have dissuaded him from running.
He had more than $11 million in ad support, the second-most among the three candidates, and found a constituency by framing himself as a younger, scandal-free alternative to Paxton. Both Paxton and Cornyn, meanwhile, repeatedly dinged him for missing dozens of House votes to campaign in Texas.
By the time the race was called on Tuesday night, Hunt had racked up 12.9% support, failing to advance in a runoff that rewards the top two finishers.
JAMES TALARICO OFFERS DEMOCRATS A VISION OF FAITH THAT FITS THE LEFT
Democrats will be recovering from a damaging primary of their own after Crockett, a political firebrand who accused Talarico’s campaign of racism, entered the primary in December. The race drew more than $27 million in spending, most of it supporting Talarico.
Turnout in the primary has been unusually strong for Democrats, suggesting an upswell of enthusiasm seen in other races across the country. The party still faces an uphill battle in Texas, where Republicans have won every Senate race since 1988.
Paxton has rebuffed Republicans, claiming his political baggage will hinder him in a general election, comparing the line of attack to predictions that Trump would lose his comeback bid for the White House in 2024.
For Cornyn, the biggest liability is his past criticism of Trump, though he has seemingly repaired his relationship with the president after calling for the party to move on from him in 2023.
CORNYN WANTS TO WORK WITH TRUMP TO FIX ‘BROKEN’ IMMIGRATION SYSTEM IF REELECTED
On policy, Cornyn is dogged by his vote for a gun safety law passed in the wake of the Uvalde, Texas, mass shooting. His campaign notes that he consistently sides with his party, despite a handful of cross-over votes, and has made the border, one of Trump’s signature issues, a centerpiece of his reelection campaign.
Cornyn has served in the Senate since 2002 and came close to becoming Senate majority leader in a hotly contested race against Sen. John Thune (R-SD) last fall. Paxton is finishing his third term as Texas attorney general, a position he has held since 2015.