High Democratic turnout in Texas’s Senate primary is driving record early voting numbers, giving hope to Democrats in the reliably red state.
Though primary turnout is usually lower in nonpresidential election years, the 2026 primary has drawn unusually close attention, largely due to the race between state Rep. James Talarico and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX). In the first seven days of primary voting, a record 1,259,356 votes were cast — 665,664 for Democrats and 593,692 for Republicans, according to unofficial data from the Texas secretary of state, obtained by the Texas Tribune.
The unusually high turnout, greater than the past two presidential election cycles and almost double that of 2022, has stirred hope within Democrats that they could win statewide office for the first time in over three decades. Of particular note to Texas Democrats was Democratic enthusiasm in Harris County and Tarrant County, the most populous Democratic county and the most populous purple county, respectively.
“Tarrant, like Texas, often has the lowest voter participation of any urban county in the United States, so we have a large amount of room to grow that allows us to put up big numbers,” Tarrant County Democratic Party Chairwoman Allison Campolo told the outlet. “The fact that Tarrant County voters are waking up day after day and … putting up bigger numbers than Republicans … absolutely leads us into November with a really strong turnout and engagement.”
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However, Texas Democrats have dreamt about flipping the state for many election cycles now, and it has yet to come true for them. Democrats also have historical strength in early and special election voting.
Democrats have kept their optimism as Republicans made gains during the last election cycle, despite the formerly solidly liberal Latino demographic growing in size in the state. Trump’s record inroads into the demographic in 2024 served as a major blow to Democratic hopes in the state.
Talarico has drawn nationwide Democratic support over his liberal appeals to his Christian faith, which the party believes can break into more conservative voting groups. In contrast, Crockett has run as an unabashed progressive Democrat, leaning into her firebrand image and status as a black woman.
Race has featured prominently in the campaign. Crockett has repeatedly accused Talarico, explicitly and implicitly, of racism. A scandal erupted earlier this month when a liberal content creator claimed Talarico called former Texas Democratic Rep. Colin Allred a “mediocre black man.” Allred gave his full endorsement to Crockett in response.
“If you want to compliment black women, just do it. Just do it,” Allred said in his video endorsement. “Don’t do it while also tearing down a black man. OK? We’ve seen that play before. We’re sick and tired of it. We’re tired of folks using praise for black women to mask criticism for black men.”
Talarico claimed the content creator mischaracterized the conversation, saying he had only described Allred’s campaigning as mediocre, not the former candidate himself.
Crockett has also taken a hard-line stance on usually favorable press, calling the Capitol Police on a CNN journalist and booting a journalist from the Atlantic from one of her events.
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Republicans were quick to dismiss the high Democratic primary turnout as simply the result of a rare competitive Democratic primary between Crockett and Talarico, an increasingly hostile campaign that had absorbed millions of dollars.
“When was the last time the Democrats had a statewide primary where they spent millions of dollars?” Dave Carney, the top political consultant for Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), told the Texas Tribune. “It hasn’t happened in my lifetime, and I’ve been [in Texas] since 1993.”