Kalshi, Polymarket, and other betting markets are amassing predictions about President Donald Trump’s address to Congress as the country awaits his high-profile speech on Tuesday evening.
At 9 p.m. EST, Trump is set to deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term in office. There is a 77% forecast that Trump’s speech will last at least 100 minutes, according to Kalshi traders, similar to his last such speech to Congress. The majority of traders on Polymarket (73%) are betting that the 2026 speech will last over 100 minutes, echoing PredictIt’s forecasts.
Kalshi gave Rep. Al Green (D-TX), who attracted scrutiny for heckling Trump’s speech to Congress last year, a 51% chance of attending Tuesday’s address. A slew of Democrats are boycotting the speech, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has warned lawmakers to express dissent this time in respectful silence.
There is a 52% chance Trump will reference Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem during his speech, according to Kalshi. Noem has faced calls to resign and bipartisan scrutiny for her handling of two lethal ICE-related shootings in Minnesota. Exactly 10% of Kalshi traders are betting Trump will use the word “discombobulator,” which he has suggested was a secret new weapon essential to carrying out the operation that toppled former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro in January.
Polymarket traders are betting the most on what Trump will say during the speech, including on whether Trump will mention former President Joe Biden over 10 times, with 53% betting in the affirmative.
There is an 86% chance Trump will mention Maduro; 47% chance of mentioning Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who backed the president’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in a recent landmark ruling; a 40% chance of mentioning former President Barack Obama; a 22% chance for X owner Elon Musk; and a 14% chance for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Bets on whether Trump will reference crypto or bitcoin during his speech are also coming in strong, with 29% betting ‘yes.’
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Predictit traders are forecasting only a 25% chance that Trump will reference Jeffrey Epstein, the deceased financier whose life provoked sweeping controversy, leading the Department of Justice to release hundreds of millions of documents related to the subject in recent months. There is a 73% chance that Trump will mention Greenland, the Danish territory in the Arctic waters that the president has floated seizing for national security purposes.
Other sites are predicting the color of the tie Trump will wear, with 63% of Polymarket traders saying it will be red.