Republicans are starting to have a conversation about the 2028 primaries even though the midterm elections are still more than eight months away.
With President Donald Trump term-limited and constitutionally ineligible to run, they are debating whether it would be better for Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to join forces as one ticket or compete against each other in the primaries.
The online chatter and behind-the-scenes speculation intensified after Rubio delivered a well-received speech at the Munich Security Conference that was frequently compared and contrasted with Vance’s from the previous year.
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Some Republicans felt Rubio said much the same thing as Vance, though stylistically presenting himself more as the “good cop” to the vice president’s “bad cop.” Others thought Rubio more successfully harmonized pre-Trump internationalism, if not neoconservatism, with the president’s America First posture.
Either way, Rubio — who is, after all, the country’s chief diplomat — got a better reception from Europeans than did Vance in his more combative speech. Vance hailed Rubio’s remarks as “a great speech” and shared them on X.
Asked after Munich about whether Rubio should be his successor, Trump replied, “[It’s] something I don’t have to worry about now. I’ve got three years to go.”
“JD is fantastic and Marco … they’re both fantastic,” he told the reporter, who had not brought up Vance by name.
Both Vance and Rubio have repeatedly shot down attempts to position them as political rivals rather than allies on Team Trump.
Vance told Fox News on Tuesday that Rubio was his best friend in the administration. He said that “the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn’t any conflict,” and added that “Marco is doing a great job,” and “we’re gonna keep on working together.”
Rubio has, for his part, said more than once he supports Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination if the vice president wants to succeed Trump. “If JD Vance runs for president, he’s going to be our nominee, and I’ll be one of the first people to support him,” Rubio told Vanity Fair last year.
That would seem to settle it. But Republicans remain torn over what the best approach to 2028 would be. Some believe coalescing around a unity ticket early and building on their campaign cash advantage while multiple Democrats duke it out for their nomination would help position the GOP to win the next presidential race.
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Trump has said much the same thing. “I think Marco is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form,” he said last year.
Vance will be on the campaign trail in the midterm elections. As long as he remains secretary of state, Rubio will presumably do less campaigning for down-ballot Republicans, if any at all. Vance is the Republican National Committee’s finance chairman.
Other Republicans worry that not having a competitive primary process would repeat the mistake Democrats made in 2024. Party leaders discouraged Democrats from challenging then-President Joe Biden and revamped the primary calendar to benefit him. Biden then face-planted in a debate with Trump after the primaries but before the convention.
Once Democrats persuaded Biden to drop out, they anointed then-Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement without any competition at the Democratic convention. She went on to lose the election, including the popular vote and all seven battleground states, though her polling is back on the upswing now.
Incumbents who faced serious primary challengers won renomination but lost in the general election in 1976, 1980, and 1992, while Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama had clear primary fields and were all reelected. Democrats also lost the 1968 presidential election after Lyndon Johnson dropped out following a disappointing showing in the New Hampshire primary.
Trump faced only token opposition in the 2020 Republican primaries before he was defeated by Biden that November.
George H.W. Bush won the 1988 Republican nomination fairly easily as the incumbent vice president under Ronald Reagan. But he did face serious opposition, including from the sitting Senate Republican floor leader, a former secretary of state, and an ex-Buffalo Bills quarterback turned supply-side Republican congressman beloved by conservative moment figures.
Bush finished third in Iowa behind Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole and televangelist Pat Robertson before righting his campaign’s course in New Hampshire.
Rubio’s sympathizers hope he can hold on to Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024 and perhaps make further inroads with this demographic. Others view Vance as a better bet to keep the Rust Belt “Blue Wall” red once more.
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Many Republicans perceive there to be ideological differences between Vance and Rubio, especially on foreign policy. Vance is seen as more of a populist true believer than even Trump, while Rubio is viewed as a much more successful bridge between MAGA and the old guard than former Vice President Mike Pence was during Trump’s first term.
For now, neither Vance nor Rubio is playing along with a parlor game Republican strategists dismiss as wildly premature and confined to the social media-obsessed.