The Department of Homeland Security’s broad reach means that everything from disaster relief to airport security could be hampered if funding runs out on Saturday, but it might take weeks before the public feels the impact.
The dispute over how to reform the agency, sparked by the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis last month, centers on immigration enforcement. But swept up in negotiations are several sub-departments responsible for critical national security functions, including the Coast Guard and Secret Service.
The White House is negotiating a set of guardrails that congressional Democrats want to place on the tactics used by Border Patrol and Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The two sides are still far apart, however, and Democrats are refusing to keep DHS limping along with a temporary funding patch.
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The impasse means that DHS is expected to enter a shutdown on Friday at midnight, forcing the agency to conserve resources and keep only essential personnel working. Still, the administration has access to rainy day funds and time to spare before paychecks go out for thousands of employees.
Immigration enforcement, meanwhile, will continue to operate due to billions of dollars set aside in President Donald Trump’s tax law last year.
Lawmakers left town for a week-long recess on Thursday after Senate Democrats blocked an attempt to pass DHS funding, but they could be called back on short notice should a deal with the White House come together.
Testifying before the House on Wednesday, the leaders of various DHS agencies warned that another shutdown risks eroding trust with the public and an uptick in federal employees quitting, whether the lapse in funding is short or not.
Delayed impact
The political risk of a shutdown is currently low in large part because paychecks don’t go out until mid-March for Transportation Security Administration employees who safeguard the nation’s airports. Canceled flights and long wait times became a major pressure point for lawmakers last fall, when the federal government shuttered for a record 43 days.
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The administration also has contingency funds it has tapped before and could do so again.
Members of the Coast Guard, the only branch of the military that falls under DHS, received a paycheck in October, even without DHS funding. A similar fallback exists for the Secret Service, which is tasked with protecting current and former presidents.
In terms of disaster relief, the Federal Emergency Management Agency would be forced to furlough some workers, but it can continue to cut checks for state recovery efforts with the $7 billion it still has at its disposal.
ICE, the sub-agency at the center of the funding dispute, received a $75 billion infusion of cash from Republicans to staff up its deportation operation last July, meaning the impact on immigration enforcement will be muted, though acting ICE director Todd Lyons testified in a Tuesday House oversight hearing that the disruption could still be “significant.”
Democrats have proposed legislation that would fund every DHS agency except ICE, but Republicans have rejected the piecemeal approach and unsuccessfully tried to pass a two-week funding patch for all agency functions on Thursday.
Bare bones staffing
In the meantime, DHS will be instructed to keep only essential personnel working through the duration of the shutdown.
That’s almost the TSA’s entire workforce, which is responsible for security at airports but also ports and mass transit systems. The same goes for the Secret Service, which will keep 94% of its employees working, and FEMA, which is expected to furlough only 15% of its staff.
A senior Coast Guard leader testified on Wednesday that some 56,000 personnel would be forced to work without pay. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, meanwhile, is likely to furlough a far bigger percentage — almost two-thirds of its workforce.
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The staffing decisions will allow core functions to continue for DHS. Other government agencies won’t be affected at all, however, due to a pair of funding bills Trump signed into law in November 2025 and January.
The next step in funding negotiations is for Democrats to produce a new proposal for the White House as they press for tighter warrant requirements and other reforms meant to moderate ICE conduct.