Rumors floating around Capitol Hill that retiring Rep. Neal Dunn (R-FL) plans to resign from Congress early are shining a spotlight on the fragility of Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) majority heading into a competitive midterm election year.
The 72-year-old Dunn, who announced in mid-January that he would not seek reelection, is rumored to be considering leaving the House of Representatives before the midterm elections. But he brushed off reporters when asked by multiple outlets whether he intended to resign early, giving variations of “no comment.”
The congressman’s office did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.
Dunn’s district, which President Donald Trump won by 18 percentage points over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in 2024, is solidly red. The seat is expected to remain safe for Republicans even if Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) takes up a congressional redistricting effort. Florida Republican Party Chairman Evan Power has announced his campaign to replace Dunn.
If Dunn resigned early, however, that would put the House at 217 Republicans and 214 Democrats. Johnson currently has a one-seat majority, and Dunn’s resignation would not have any impact. But any GOP vacancies, whether a member resigns, dies, or is merely absent for votes, would give the speaker zero room for party defections when looking to pass contentious bills.
Leadership is already preparing for the reality of Dunn departing Congress, with Johnson telling reporters on Wednesday he has asked Dunn to finish out the remainder of his term.
“Neal Dunn is a beloved member of Congress and a great man, and you know, he’s informed us he’s not going to run for reelection,” Johnson said.
The speaker, notably, does not appear ready to press the panic button just yet, even with rumors swirling that the Florida congressman may leave soon.
“What he does from here forward, I’m not sure — you need to ask him about it,” Johnson added. “But I’ve encouraged him to stay and be a part of this, and I think he wants to do that.”
Dunn is one of 50 House members who are opting not to seek reelection to their seats in the 2026 election, whether to retire from politics or vie for another office.
Former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is the only member who opted to resign early, leaving Congress on Jan. 5. Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigned her House seat a couple of weeks after winning her gubernatorial bid last year.
Both political parties are expected to gain a member once the special elections to fill Greene’s and Sherrill’s seats take place. Special elections in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District and New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District are set for March 10 and April 16, respectively.
If a Republican wins Georgia and a Democrat wins New Jersey, Johnson will continue to operate with a one-vote majority until August, when the special election to replace the late GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa will take place.
The restraints of a thin majority were on stark display Tuesday night, after three Republicans joined Democrats to tank a party-line vote that would extend a ban on bills that seek to repeal President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
It was the seventh time the speaker’s party failed to bail him out on a controversial vote since the start of the 119th Congress in January 2025.
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“This is life with a small majority,” the speaker said Tuesday evening after the vote failure. “I need unanimity every day, and we didn’t get it tonight.”
The House is expected to take up a proof-of-citizenship and voter ID bill, called the SAVE America Act, later on Wednesday. Votes for the bill will likely fall along party lines, though a few Democrats may decide to join Republicans in pushing it over the finish line.