President Donald Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House this week, with Iran and Gaza topping the agenda. But hanging over the visit is a quieter shift that could reshape America’s alliance with its most important ally.
The meeting is the first one at the White House since Netanyahu announced his plan for Israel to “taper” off its reliance on American military aid over the next decade. Netanyahu’s pitch is tailor-made for Trump’s America First agenda: Phase out billions in U.S. military aid and let Israel buy its own weapons like any other customer.
Yet, while Trump seems unsold, even one of the biggest military hawks within the GOP is on board.
“The aid we have provided to Israel has been a great investment, keeping the IDF strong, sharing technology, and making their military more capable — to the benefit of the United States,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). “The billions in taxpayer dollars that would be saved by expediting the termination of military aid to Israel will and should be plowed back into the U.S. military, which is the best in the world and in great demand.”
Graham, who is facing a primary challenge as he seeks reelection this year, said that given Israel’s strong economy, there is no reason “we need not wait ten years.”
American military aid to Israel has become more controversial for Democrats and some libertarian and America First Republicans since Hamas’ terrorist attack on Oct. 7, 2023, amid criticism of how Israel has prosecuted its war against the terrorist organization in Gaza.
Former President Joe Biden even temporarily paused a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel in May 2024 in response to concerns regarding the number of civilian casualties.
But the U.S.-Israel military aid relationship, premised on a 10-year memorandum of understanding that is poised to expire in 2028 and its annual provision of about $3.8 billion in military assistance, representing roughly 15 to 20% of Israel’s defense budget, has provided the United States with some leverage over Israel when the two countries have had disagreements in the past.
Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow and Trump’s former special representative to Iran, Elliott Abrams, explained how complicated it could be to convince the president.
“If the issue arises, I think Netanyahu will want assurance that Lindsey Graham’s idea of a much quicker cut off is not taking hold in the administration,” the Vandenberg Coalition chairman told the Washington Examiner.
The White House has downplayed speculation that Netanyahu’s plan for Israel to become independent of U.S. military aid could upend his and Israel’s relationship with Trump and the U.S. as the two countries contend with renewed tensions with Iran.
“President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu have a great relationship, and Israel has had no better friend in its history than President Trump,” White House National Security Council communications director Anna Kelly told the Washington Examiner.
For Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Steven Cook, “reading the writing on the wall,” Israel is “correct to seek greater independence” from U.S. military aid.
“The aid relationship was never popular on Israel’s Right — and it is consistent with the way President Trump thinks about the responsibilities of allies and close partners,” Cook told the Washington Examiner, pointing to NATO as an example of Trump’s foreign policy philosophy.
During a press briefing in Tel Aviv, Israel, last December, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel reiterated to the Washington Examiner that Israel has “never had a better friend in the White House” than Trump.
But Haskel emphasized how Biden’s decision regarding the 2,000-pound bombs prompted many in Israel to question the country’s broader relationship with the U.S.
When pressed on Israel’s military aid dependence on the U.S., Haskel described the current MOU as a “win-win situation right now for America,” but not for Israel, because of the restrictions it places on Israel.
“You need to make sure that your capabilities are always much higher in balance than your enemy,” Haskel told reporters. “We do need to find different ways to continue and develop, but it has to come together with the United States, so not to break [the U.S.-Israel relationship] or anything like that.”
Weeks later, Netanyahu announced in January his plan to phase out the military aid Israel receives from the U.S., $33 billion in Foreign Military Financing and $5 billion for missile defense, during the next decade, arguing Israel has “come of age” economically and has its own military industrial base and technological strengths.
Reports about initial negotiations regarding the new MOU indicate Israel is seeking a 20-year agreement for at least $76 billion in military aid, with more co-development and less direct military assistance.
Despite the U.S.-Israel military aid relationship giving the U.S. some leverage over Israel, American Enterprise Institute fellow Daniel Samet contended that “ending aid is much more about the long-term health of the U.S.-Israel relationship than the crises Trump and Netanyahu face today.”
“The phase-out of American assistance won’t drive both leaders’ immediate actions in Iran and Gaza,” Samet told the Washington Examiner.
Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior adviser Richard Goldberg said it was is “healthy” for both countries if Israel maintains a “redundant defense industrial base capacity, particularly in high-demand munitions, given the ever-expanding stress on the U.S. defense base.”
“Israel can’t find itself in another Oct. 7 situation where stockpiles have been diverted to Ukraine and Israel has no ability to produce what it needs to fight a prolonged multi-front war, and the United States needs to plan for its own multi-theater conflict scenarios where it wouldn’t be able to provide emergency airlift,” Goldberg told the Washington Examiner.
The meeting will be Trump and Netanyahu’s fifth sit-down at the White House, excluding the prime minister’s trip to Mar-a-Lago last December.
FDD’s Goldberg said “the immediate issue” for Trump and Netanyahu is “obviously Iran” after last year’s pro-democracy protests across the country were met with deadly force from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime.
In reaction, Trump promised “help” was “on the way” as he repositioned military assets in the Middle East, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and its carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea.
Trump is trying to use the moment to pressure Iran into a new nuclear nonproliferation deal, telling Axios on Tuesday he could direct a second carrier strike group to the region if negotiations do not go well.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters last week that the U.S. is also attempting to have Iran stop its ballistic missile program and uphold basic human rights as part of the negotiations.
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In addition, Trump and Netanyahu are expected to discuss Gaza, one week before the president’s first Board of Peace meeting in Washington, D.C., at the newly renamed Donald J. Trump U.S. Institute of Peace, amid concerns about the lack of fundraising for the enclave’s reconstruction.
Wednesday’s meeting, too, comes as Israel this week permitted Jewish settlers to more easily purchase land in the West Bank, undermining the Palestinian Authority and Trump, who is against Israel’s annexation of the territory.