House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) could make history as the first black speaker should Democrats win the upcoming midterm elections. But a razor-thin GOP majority that seems to narrow by the week could put Jeffries in the speaker’s chair much sooner than anticipated.
If Jeffries becomes speaker, he will have to take on the burden that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) currently faces: a slim majority, different ideological factions, and working across the aisle and chambers to get things done.
Within his caucus, Jeffries would likely find himself facing challenges with his progressive flank, who will want their leader to go full steam ahead in standing up to President Donald Trump.
The minority leader has already taken a strong approach in pushing back against the administration, but he often finds himself disconnected from his counterpart in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, and battling with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD). Schumer’s recent deal-making with Republicans and the White House on government funding has put the two Democratic leaders on different wavelengths at times, leading to frustrations from House Democrats who want to put as much pressure on Trump as possible.
Would Left flank pose a challenge?
With Trump in the White House and Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, Jeffries has faced little internal pushback on his leadership decisions. But progressives across the country have been demanding new blood in the halls of Congress, calling for establishment and elder Democrats to pass the torch onto a new generation of leaders.
Jeffries, who came into Congress in 2013, has been serving as the House minority leader since 2023 after Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) stepped down as leader of the party after the 2022 elections. Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) and Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA) were also part of a wave to bring new leadership to the caucus.
With the GOP’s control of Washington, Democrats virtually hold no political power. But that hasn’t stopped Democrats from forcing key votes on the floor on issues such as healthcare and the disgraced Jeffrey Epstein files, albeit due to the assistance of a handful of Republicans willing to go across the aisle.
Progressives don’t appear to be looking to challenge Jeffries’ leadership, especially after he was unanimously reelected minority leader after the 2024 elections. Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL), a progressive and the youngest member of the Democratic leadership team, told the Washington Examiner that he hasn’t heard from his fellow progressive caucus members whether they plan to challenge Jeffries if a Democrat were in position to become speaker.
“I don’t see a world in which we’re in the majority and it’s not Speaker Jeffries, and we’ll all work together to make that happen and then pass bills that are actually going to help people,” Frost said.
But some progressives believe that while Jeffries is the likely next speaker, that doesn’t absolve him of having to put forward concrete ideas on how he’ll lead effectively.
One House progressive, granted anonymity to speak freely, said it will be “critically important” for the leader to “use all of the talent within the caucus” to “set the planks” for that plan. The progressive member said between now and the elections, Jeffries should hold meetings with smaller coalitions, both ideological caucuses and House committee leaders, rather than just the large, once-a-week caucus meeting that often gets leaked to the press.
“I think that needs to happen to instill confidence in the members of the caucus that he’s ready to lead,” the member said, adding that an “action plan” is what voters across the country are craving for.
Jeffries briefly had a progressive challenger to his seat, New York City Councilman Chi Ossé, but Ossé dropped out on Dec. 5, citing a lack of support from left-wing colleagues — a sign that there’s no appetite to try and remove Jeffries, even from progressive Democrats.
“He’s been making the case all year, holding our caucus together, letting members represent their districts the way that they want to,” Frost said of Jeffries’ leadership.
How does a slim majority impact a speakership?
Johnson currently has a one-seat majority after Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX) was sworn in last week. Since the start of the Trump administration, Republicans have fallen victim to narrow margins that make it hard to pass contentious legislation, such as a $3.5 trillion reconciliation legislation or government funding bills.
The speaker has often faced showdowns on the floor, with as many as a dozen and as few as two members able to sink a vote on anything from controversial bills to partisan messaging bills.
Unlike Johnson, whose warring factions of conservatives and centrists often puts him at the cusp of many failed votes, Jeffries’s leading in the minority grants him the leeway to let their members vote their conscience on key votes, most recently on the Homeland Security government funding bill.
Hank Sheinkopf, veteran Democratic strategist, told the Washington Examiner he thinks Jeffries is “smart” to let his members vote their districts and not forcing them to follow the opinion of leadership.
“He’s very smart,” Sheinkopf said. “He’s letting people do what they want, so he doesn’t have a revolt, you know. And what does he lose? He loses nothing.”
That would change in a majority, especially if he, like Johnson, is operating under slim margins.
“It’s a lot easier being minority leader, because you just have to throw bombs,” said Ron Bonjean, a longtime GOP strategist and former top spokesman to the speaker of the House and the Senate majority leader.
Bonjean said Jeffries would likely have a “honeymoon period” that would last a few months. But heading into a speakership with a slim majority, Jeffries would have to balance centrists versus the Progressive Caucus, not unlike the way Johnson has to keep the peace between moderate Republicans and members of the conservative Freedom Caucus.
Progressives will likely push for Jeffries to take hard-line approaches to combating Trump, but many centrists or members in swing districts will want leadership to remember the stinging losses of the 2024 election and not fall victim to culture and social wars.
With a small majority, Jeffries may also need to attract the support of center-line Republicans, the same members who needed Democrats’ help to move priorities such as the Epstein files or extending the Obamacare subsidies across the finish line.
Jeffries often will say Democrats are “ready, willing, and able” to work in a “bipartisan fashion” and in good faith. But not all Republicans are convinced Jeffries will actually follow through as speaker.
“I think the way he’s approached some of these issues recently has not been in the sort of bipartisan way I think most Americans would support,” Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA) told the Washington Examiner. “There seems like there’s a greater capacity for bipartisanship over on the Senate side when it comes to the Democratic leadership than when it comes to the House leadership.”
Kiley pointed to Jeffries declining to endorse two bipartisan petitions to extend the Affordable Care Act tax subsidies, calling one of them “laughable,” and instead pushing for a three-year extension that was dead on arrival in the Senate.
“Hopefully that’s not an indication of what he would do if he ever had the opportunity to lead the chamber,” Kiley said. “But I think we’re a long way off and obviously the voters will need to have their say in November of who controls the chamber.”
Can Jeffries work with Thune, Trump, and his own counterpart, Schumer?
Becoming speaker would place Jeffries at the center of political conversations. As leader of the House, his new responsibility would require him to work closely with the White House and Thune, if Republicans still hold the Senate after the midterm elections.
Jeffries would also need to be in lockstep with Schumer, which hasn’t always been the case. In March 2025, the relationship between Schumer and Jeffries turned icy after the senator helped Republicans overcome the 60-vote filibuster to fund the government and avoid a shutdown. That decision led to many House Democrats calling for Schumer to step down as leader, with progressives pressing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to primary him.
Most recently, Schumer struck a deal with Trump to pass five government funding bills alongside a 10-day continuing resolution to fund the Department of Homeland Security while lawmakers negotiate reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. But Jeffries did not agree with that deal, voting against the Senate’s negotiated plan on Tuesday.
Jeffries and Schumer frequently brush off any questions that pertain to any tension in their relationship. Jeffries said, “I talk to Schumer every day,” on Tuesday. Schumer has said something similar.
Republicans are not eager to have Jeffries be their primary point of contact. Thune told the Washington Examiner that Jeffries was not a “good faith” partner as the parties battle over how to best move forward on DHS funding negotiations.
“I mean, he’s not. He’s just not,” Thune said of Jeffries. “And I think he and, for that matter, Leader Schumer, both are afraid of their shadows, and they’re getting a lot of blowback and pressure from their left.”
Johnson said last week he believes Jeffries and Schumer are having a “little power struggle between the two of them.”
Can Jeffries work well with Trump? Most Democrats don’t think it is Jeffries who has something to prove.
“I think that bridge has already been burned,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “Reality is, what’s the expression: it takes two to tango? I don’t think the president would have any interest in reaching out to Jeffries to try to cut deals. It’s just not in Trump’s nature.”
Frost pointed to Trump sharing artificial intelligence posts and memes of Jeffries, including one of the minority leader in a sombrero with Mexican mariachi music playing in the background. Jeffries, Schumer, and many Democrats have decried the posts and videos as racist.
“I think Donald Trump’s the one that needs to work in good faith,” Frost said.
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The Washington Examiner reached out to Jeffries for comment.
David Sivak contributed to this report.