Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) has taken the lead for the first time in a Republican primary poll for Kentucky‘s Senate race, surpassing former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who has held the polling edge since December 2024.
Barr, Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris are facing off in a competitive GOP primary to see who will compete in the general election and likely replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). The primary has gone without an endorsement from President Donald Trump as the three candidates seek to tie themselves to Trump’s agenda while distancing themselves from McConnell.
The new Emerson College poll, sponsored by Nexstar, is the first independent pollster flagged by The New York Times on the 2026 Republican Senate primary in Kentucky. The poll shows the three Republican candidates locked in a close race, with 38% of voters still undecided.
Barr is ahead with 24% of the vote, Cameron is close behind with 21% of the vote, and Morris is polling at 14%. Four percent of Kentucky GOP voters polled support “other” candidates, such as small business owner Michael Faris, who remains in the race. Emerson College polled about 1,000 Kentucky voters from Jan. 31 through Feb. 2.
“With just over three months until primary day, Rep. Barr and former Attorney General Cameron start this race as frontrunners, while Nate Morris follows within striking distance,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The poll follows the Federal Election Commission’s release of 2025 year-end fundraising numbers for the race, which showed Barr pulling away in cash. Barr finished 2025 with $6.47 million in cash on hand, Morris held $1.42 million in cash on hand, and Cameron had just over $630,000 in cash on hand.
But lying in the background is a $10 million donation that Elon Musk made to Morris’s super PAC in mid-January, which is sure to impact the race.
Cameron’s team is bashing the Emerson College poll. Early Republican-sponsored polls, including those run by Barr and Morris affiliates, have shown Cameron in the lead by between seven and 26 points.
“No one — including Andy Barr — thinks Andy Barr is winning. This poll is unserious and silly,” Cameron campaign manager Nathanael Hirt told the Washington Examiner. “Polls one day ago and two weeks ago showed Daniel up double digits. Nothing moves that fast except lies.
Barr campaign spokesman Alex Bellizzi said the poll “shows what Kentuckians have been seeing on the ground for months: Andy Barr is the strongest candidate in this race.”
“Andy leads in the polls, is the only candidate dominating Democrats in the general election, has more major endorsements than both campaigns combined, and is crushing his competition in the race for fundraising with 10 times the cash-on-hand [of] his nearest opponent,” Bellizzi said. “After over $8 million spent, Nate Morris’ campaign is crashing harder than his failed green energy company after it went on the NYSE,” he said.
Morris’s campaign is taking the poll as a positive, pointing to earlier polls that showed him in the single digits.
“Nate is the only candidate moving in the right direction. He has a massive cash advantage between his self-funding ability and $10 million of support from Elon Musk,” said Morris campaign spokesman Conor McGuinness. “And most importantly, he is the only political outsider and America First conservative in the race. We look forward to victory in May.”
ANDY BARR BOASTS CASH ADVANTAGE WHILE DANIEL CAMERON LEADS IN KENTUCKY SENATE POLLS
The Emerson College poll shows former state Rep. Charles Booker leading the Democratic primary field, with 30% of the vote. Marine Veteran Amy McGrath is next with 19% of the vote, followed by state Rep. Pamela Stevenson, with 4%. Forty-three percent of Democratic voters are still undecided, per the poll.
The Kentucky Senate primaries will be held on May 19, ahead of the Nov. 3 general election.